CPAC: NORMAN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2018082418, , BEST, 0, 96N, 975W, 25, 0, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 90, 2018082500, , BEST, 0, 96N, 985W, 25, 0, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 90, 2018082506, , BEST, 0, 97N, 994W, 25, 0, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 90, 2018082512, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1004W, 25, 0, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 90, 2018082518, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1014W, 25, 0, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 90, 2018082600, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1024W, 25, 1009, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, ep722018 to ep902018,

[Kingarabian]

GFS and UKMET think this will be a stronger storm than 99E.

[cycloneye]

SHIP is very bullish on the first run going up to almost cat 3.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902018 08/26/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 54 65 74 86 93 94 93
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 54 65 74 86 93 94 93
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 32 38 45 55 69 81 86 86
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 11 7 9 2 3 3 4 4 11 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 0 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 5 355 351 357 325 348 34 96 96 104 83 53 32
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 154 155 157 158 159 156 154 149 145 144
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.5 -53.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6
700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 78 76 77 75 74 68 67 65 65 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 10 13 15 16 21 24 25 26
850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 10 12 12 5 6 8 9 20 34 27 22
200 MB DIV 91 104 95 68 57 63 28 16 12 29 50 2 -10
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 -3 -12 -5 -7 -4 -5 -7 -9 -4
LAND (KM) 781 810 820 807 801 822 888 934 988 1116 1222 1347 1429
LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.9 13.1 14.4 15.3 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.7
LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.5 104.6 105.7 106.8 109.1 111.5 113.8 116.2 118.5 120.6 122.5 123.8
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 6
HEAT CONTENT 22 19 23 30 36 35 36 30 15 14 16 12 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 23. 23. 24.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 29. 40. 49. 61. 68. 69. 68.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 102.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 00 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[cycloneye]

Looks like this system will be a large one and slowly is organizing.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it will take its time to develop as we've seen with Fabio, John, and Lane, but like Lane, it will have time to develop.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/p9yFDDj


Worth watching ens trends again. Early days yet and a big fat ridge and the centers locations spreed possibles were it may end up being upstream.





https://imgur.com/218bl3r

[Sciencerocks]

Tired of eastern pacific systems.

I kind of hope 99 and 90E die.

[Twisted-core]

Tired of eastern pacific systems.

I kind of hope 99 and 90E die.

Unfortunately the cpac islands will be under the pump thinks ens.
https://imgur.com/nSY8w0L

possible center locations only.

Don't want to see a hit either, that's natures call. With enso setting up the epac +cpac is interesting

[Kingarabian]

Tired of eastern pacific systems.

I kind of hope 99 and 90E die.

No one's forcing you to track them.

[Kingarabian]

Per the models and their ensembles keeping this a respectable system entering the CPAC, I believe if it avoids Hawaii it can potentially make it to the WPAC. Could possibly take us very close to 200 ACE.

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure system located about 500 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located nearly 500 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of the week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Ntxw]

90E/future Norman might be the bigger ACE producer of the two currently active systems going 30+ units. It takes a SW dip around the ridge after 120W the long way west. Also both GFS and Euro takes this uncomfortably towards Hawaii but that is long range and steering can change by then.

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902018 08/26/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 42 50 59 66 70 75 77 78
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 42 50 59 66 70 75 77 78
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 40 46 51 55 59 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 1 5 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 339 334 314 298 322 336 30 131 247 214 10 27 23
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 157 158 159 160 158 153 147 145 142 139
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 75 76 74 72 67 66 62 62 58 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 17 19 21
850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -1 1 8 13 4 11 17 24 23 21 31
200 MB DIV 68 50 57 62 72 54 13 -1 0 1 -2 -28 -15
700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -4 -11 -11 -13 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 758 746 744 761 779 874 876 967 1102 1277 1470 1630 1796
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 15.1 16.2 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.4 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.7 106.8 108.0 109.3 111.9 114.4 117.0 119.5 122.0 124.2 126.2 127.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 29 35 38 40 33 37 31 16 15 13 10 8 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 34. 41. 45. 50. 52. 53.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 104.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 14.0% 55.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[euro6208]

Tired of eastern pacific systems.

I kind of hope 99 and 90E die.

Why? Is it because they are mostly fishes or when threatening Hawaii, they just fizzle out?

[cycloneye]

Notice the bend to the left at the end of runs.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Tired of eastern pacific systems.

I kind of hope 99 and 90E die.

Why? Is it because they are mostly fishes or when threatening Hawaii, they just fizzle out?

He probably means that the Eastern Pacific has been so active. Hector and Lane have accumulated over 40 units of ACE each and have over 11 named storm days each.

Hector only fizzled out after crossing the antimeridian.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902018 08/26/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 42 50 59 66 70 75 77 78
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 42 50 59 66 70 75 77 78
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 40 46 51 55 59 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 1 5 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 339 334 314 298 322 336 30 131 247 214 10 27 23
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 157 158 159 160 158 153 147 145 142 139
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 75 76 74 72 67 66 62 62 58 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 17 19 21
850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -1 1 8 13 4 11 17 24 23 21 31
200 MB DIV 68 50 57 62 72 54 13 -1 0 1 -2 -28 -15
700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -4 -11 -11 -13 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 758 746 744 761 779 874 876 967 1102 1277 1470 1630 1796
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 15.1 16.2 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.4 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.7 106.8 108.0 109.3 111.9 114.4 117.0 119.5 122.0 124.2 126.2 127.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 29 35 38 40 33 37 31 16 15 13 10 8 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 34. 41. 45. 50. 52. 53.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 104.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 14.0% 55.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/26/18 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of
this disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2018082618, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1058W, 25, 1009, LO