ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Anyone know what happened to recon? Haven’t seen any updates in awhile on TT.

One should be taking off anytime now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

"A USGS gauge at New Bern, North Carolina, on the
Neuse River is recording 9.6 feet of inundation."

At 12am EDT it hit 10.41 feet.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nc/nwis/uv?c ... 2018-09-14

Here's Neuse River at Oriental, nearer to the coast (9.2 feet):
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=orln7
More rivers: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/region.php?state=nc
More tides on map: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/i ... 20Carolina
More for Florence on single page: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quick ... e=Florence

"A NOAA buoy at Onslow Bay recently reported a minimum pressure of
960 mb (28.35 mb)."

Station 41064 - Onslow Bay Outer, NC:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... 1064&uom=M
More buoys around storm: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search ... t=A&time=3

[MississippiWx]

Radar is showing winds of 110mph just offshore of Wilmington in the eye wall.

[edu2703]

Camera placed 10ft from the ground

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1040455591053934595

[artist]

Brandon Clement live
https://livestormchasing.com/stream/brandon.clement

[HDGator]

Radar is showing winds of 110mph just offshore of Wilmington in the eye wall.

Massive convection building on the west eyewall as she approaches Wilmington. That's not good for landfall; it will mix down those higher winds and cause more damage.

[meriland29]

That is extreme convection just wrapping around like a hot knife in butter..where did that come from???? Isn't she too close to land now?

[lando]

any update on those people in okrafor or whatever that island was

[northjaxpro]

Unfortunately, Florence continues to intensify gradually and she has come essentially to a halt. The eyewall looks just about stationary at this hour. She is also about as large as I have seen her in her lifespan right now.

Florence just may be on the cusp of being major hurricane Cat 3hurricane once again.

[ncbird]

As a longtime member of these forums I have a mother near Jacksonville, a sister at myrtle beach 3 blocks from the ocean (she refused to evacuate), and am watching New Bern which I called home when I had my 2nd child currently is being flooded... that now adult child happened to be with me in TX during Harvey when the airport shut down from flooding. No it wasn't a fun experience, but I'm taking serious offense to these Harvey vs Florence pissing matches. People's lives are at risk right now and homes are being washed away. Does it really matter to the people being impacted at this moment which one was a bigger/badder hurricane? Please take it to PM if you must. This argument is almost as silly as some peoples responses during Katrina alluding it was a nothing burger compared to forecasts before the levies breached...

Thank you Pebbles. You have no idea how correct you are. My yard is littered with shingles from my roof, several very large limbs have hit my house and winds are howling and we have a long way to go before this is over. Each storm is different, each storm does different damage compared to the outlay of the land it is impacting. Those of us who are living thru this right now careless about about what storm was bigger, stronger, had more rain or what ever you wish to compare. Out of respect for those of us who are being effected by THIS storm, please keep it until after the storm is over.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1040459427164368900

[psyclone]

wow that Brandon Clement video is something. it's a water blizzard in New Bern.

[Zarniwoop]

Radar is showing winds of 110mph just offshore of Wilmington in the eye wall.

Massive convection building on the west eyewall as she approaches Wilmington. That's not good for landfall; it will mix down those higher winds and cause more damage.

Its been downgraded to a cat one. I think that she's out of time to intensify regardless of all the "holy crap, she's about to blow up" posts.

If an expert can tell me I'm wrong, please redirect. I hope like hell I'm not wrong. I've never head of a storm blowing up this close to land. I'm sure an expert has seen it.

At this point, what's important (unless I really don't understand what's going on), is that this storm has been pushing a lot of water, and is going to continue to push a lot of water inland for around 24 more hours.

For people well inland, its going to be the rain combined with TS winds that causes catastrophic power outages and damage. A 50 mph wind blowing for 24 hours is worse than a 100 mph wind blowing for one hour.

I'm not an expert and I wear broccoli on my head. Please refer to NHC products when making decisions.

[eastcoastFL]

Gfs has her in the same spot 12 hours from now and she looks to be drifting right now on radar

[Bayousaint]

any update on those people in okrafor or whatever that island was

One of the residents was posting on Twitter before the storm today. I’m not sure how long he continued posting. Let me try to find the link- unless someone else has it handy.

[sbcc]

I'd never heard of this - apparently FEMA uses the "Waffle House Index" to judge a storm's impact in a given area:

https://www.ehstoday.com/fire_emergencyresponse/disaster-planning/waffles-risk-management-0706

[MrStormX]

Ditto to what Pebbles said. I have been lurking on this site for ages, and this seems to happen every time a hurricane landfalls. That, and people complaining that the storm is not as strong as they thought it would be. It's like clockwork. With a few exceptions like Charlie and Harvey, most ATL hurricanes over the past two decades dropped a category or two at landfall, this is normal. Categories mean little, its just a number that can't adequately gauge much more than windspeeds in the eye.

In this case, the inland flooding threat that Florence is currently posing is extreme, and the surge we are seeing tonight in certain river channels is easily at major hurricane levels. That's the big takeaway, not some stupid number.

[bob rulz]

Unfortunately, Florence continues to intensify gradually and she has come essentially to a halt. The eyewall looks just about stationary at this hour. She is also about as large as I have seen her in her lifespan right now.

Florence just may be on the cusp of being major hurricane Cat 3hurricane once again.

This storm is not intensifying and in fact it continues to weaken as per recon, despite the satellite appearance. It's just too large and disorganized - and now likely too close to land - to intensify much if at all. However, gusts appear to be unusually high in comparison to sustained wind strength, not to mention that the hurricane-force winds are likely about evenly distributed in an 80-mile radius around the center. That in combination with the duration of wind events is going to make this worse than a lot of people think even as far as wind damage goes.

[northjaxpro]

That is extreme convection just wrapping around like a hot knife in butter..where did that come from???? Isn't she too close to land now?

The frictonal Interaction with the land is actually helping the eyewall to tighten its circulation in this case. The inner core (eyewall) remains fully off shore and unfortunatarelywill remain to be the case for several more hours at least as Florence is stationary..

[MississippiWx]

Radar is showing winds of 110mph just offshore of Wilmington in the eye wall.

Massive convection building on the west eyewall as she approaches Wilmington. That's not good for landfall; it will mix down those higher winds and cause more damage.

Its been downgraded to a cat one. I think that she's out of time to intensify regardless of all the "holy crap, she's about to blow up" posts.

If an expert can tell me I'm wrong, please redirect. I hope like hell I'm not wrong. I've never head of a storm blowing up this close to land. I'm sure an expert has seen it.

At this point, what's important (unless I really don't understand what's going on), is that this storm has been pushing a lot of water, and is going to continue to push a lot of water inland for around 24 more hours.

For people well inland, its going to be the rain combined with TS winds that causes catastrophic power outages and damage. A 50 mph wind blowing for 24 hours is worse than a 100 mph wind blowing for one hour.

I'm not an expert and I wear broccoli on my head. Please refer to NHC products when making decisions.

What I said is truth. Doesn't really matter about sensationalistic posts. The radar IS showing winds of 110mph at 1500 feet in the eye wall that is about to move inland. With the intense convection that has just blown up, these winds will likely make it to the surface in gusts.