ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#21 Postby HurricaneEric » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:55 am

gatorcane wrote:While a recurving fish looks likely, the latest GFS and CMC ensembles cast a little doubt even if it is slight. See models thread.


I still believe the recurve is likely as you do, but I found some pro-Mets on Twitter saying this storm will “never” be a threat to Carribean Islands and CONUS. Seems too early to determine that.

I recall the chances of eventual Irma recurving, as it was coming off the African coast, were high. But we know how that turned out. I’m sure the same thing was being said about Irma.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#22 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:09 am

Recurve well east of the Caribbean is likely. Deep trof over the central Atlantic should provide a nice avenue for it to turn northward. I'm not concerned about this potential storm threatening the East Caribbean or the U.S.

By the way, the NHC just tweeted that they're starting advisories on PTC Six within the next hour.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#23 Postby NotSparta » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:11 am

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Re: ATL: Fiirst advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX at 11 AM EDT

#24 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:23 am

Look for an initial track similar to this, but only going out 5 days.

Image
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Re: ATL: Fiirst advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX at 11 AM EDT

#25 Postby storminabox » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:29 am

How strong do you guys think this will get?
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Re: ATL: Fiirst advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX at 11 AM EDT

#26 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:37 am

storminabox wrote:How strong do you guys think this will get?

High end cat 3 or low end cat 4.
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ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:45 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 18.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and
Brava.


Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has
continued to become better organized, and is producing a large
area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a
well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical
storm could form an any time today or Friday. Given the high
chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a
portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Most of the intensity
guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast.

The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow
pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west-
northwest during the next few days. By the end of the forecast
period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system
reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. This is consistent with
the output of the global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 12.9N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/0000Z 13.2N 20.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 31/1200Z 13.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 14.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 15.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 16.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: Fiirst advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX at 11 AM EDT

#28 Postby plasticup » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:48 am

storminabox wrote:How strong do you guys think this will get?

I think Cat 4. Warm SST, low shear. This thing has impressive potential.
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Re: ATL: Fiirst advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX at 11 AM EDT

#29 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:25 am

plasticup wrote:
storminabox wrote:How strong do you guys think this will get?

I think Cat 4. Warm SST, low shear. This thing has impressive potential.


Check the latest SST map and oceanic heat content map for the predicted path. Rather cool SSTs and low heat content so far east. Here, I plotted the track over the OHC map for ya:

Image
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#30 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:19 am

Lotsa fuel - TPW just about off scale

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#31 Postby DioBrando » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:30 am

Imma predict this would be similar to Edward in 2014
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#32 Postby Ken711 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:51 am

DioBrando wrote:Imma predict this would be similar to Edward in 2014


You mean Edouard. :D
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#33 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:11 pm

This is still a broad mess at the moment and I doubt it will be able to organize into a tropical depression by tonight as the NHC forecasts suggests. However, POTC 6 should be able to consolidate a well defined LLC by tomorrow, and will probably be named Florence some time tomorrow as well. It should gradually strengthen for about 48-72 hours, possibly reaching minimal hurricane intensity before encountering SSTs below 26C early next week, which should level off intensification or perhaps weaken the storm a little. In about a week or so, POTC 6 should move over warmer waters once again over the subtropical Atlantic, and it will probably peak in intensity around that time. IMO, it's highly unlikely this becomes a Category 4 or 5, the much recent GFS run seems much more realistic with regards to its intensity.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:15 pm

Well defined monsoon trough.

Image
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:40 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 19.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#36 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:13 pm

Taking a look at the most recent and last updating visible satellite frame, i'd guess a COC may be located at 12.5 N & 20.5 W.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#37 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:22 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 06, 2018083018, , BEST, 0, 128N, 190W, 25, 1007, L


Image
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#38 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:28 pm

As 1900hurricame astutely noted, this really is the likes of a well defined monsoon trough. Only late this afternoon do I now think its beginning to close off a discernible center with co-located colder tops more tightly rotating around that point. Practically a ready made T.D. minus the CDO. It's possible that it's own fairly sizable circulation might slightly delay it's anticipated vertical development thus resulting in a bit more of a short-term Westward motion. Seems doubtful though that any short-term delay will have much impact on feeling it's eventual N.W. tug toward the broad area of 500 mb height falls occurring over a large swath real estate throughout the tropical Central and Eastern Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:05 pm

A curiosity on warnings: can TC watches or warnings be issued for the Canary Islands, Madeira or the African mainland if something develops and recurves instantly?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#40 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:48 pm

270
WTNT41 KNHC 302032
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

The area of low pressure has continued to become better defined,
and is still accompanied by a large area of disturbed weather
with gusty winds. However, the system lacks a well-defined center,
and Dvorak classifications do not support to classify the
disturbance as a tropical depression at this time. An environment
of high moisture and low shear favors genesis, and the disturbance
is expected to become a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24
hours. These favorable conditions are expected to prevail, so the
NHC forecast gradually brings the winds up at a similar rate as the
intensity consensus.

Since the system lacks a well defined center, the initial motion is
uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at
8 kt. The disturbance is moving rather slow because it is still
embedded within the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. Once it
moves away from that region near Africa, it will be steered by the
trade winds around the subtropical ridge, and the system will
increase its westward or west-northwestward forward speed. By the
end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin
as the cyclone reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. The
NHC forecast is similar to the earlier one, and is in between the
corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.9N 19.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/0600Z 13.1N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 31/1800Z 14.0N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.7N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.5N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.7N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 21.0N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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