ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[J_J99]

Wrightsville beach is going to get pounded by the storm surge.... already rising. At 8.45 AML
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/

And I will say this, I was awake last night for the most intense blowup I have ever seen on IR and Dvorak. Even though the SFMR may have been suspect due to shoaling, they still found 101 kts FL Winds. This may be up to post season analysis but it is my belief it reattained Category 2 Strength last night. Clearly supported by FL winds.

[sponger]

Wrightsville beach is going to get pounded by the storm surge.... already rising. At 8.45 AML
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/

And I will say this, I was awake last night for the most intense blowup I have ever seen on IR and Dvorak. Even though the SFMR may have been suspect due to shoaling, they still found 101 kts FL Winds. This may be up to post season analysis but it is my belief it reattained Category 2 Strength last night. Clearly supported by FL winds.

It was an amazing site to see. It is certainly a possibility.

[SconnieCane]

Wrightsville beach is going to get pounded by the storm surge.... already rising. At 8.45 AML
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/

And I will say this, I was awake last night for the most intense blowup I have ever seen on IR and Dvorak. Even though the SFMR may have been suspect due to shoaling, they still found 101 kts FL Winds. This may be up to post season analysis but it is my belief it reattained Category 2 Strength last night. Clearly supported by FL winds.

It was an amazing site to see. It is certainly a possibility.

She may be "only" at Cat 1/low 2 at most but she's bringing a lot more of that wind to the surface, over a larger area, than most Cat 1s do. Probably more so than Irene and Matthew.

[otowntiger]

Not in these winds they aren't. They might be staging as well, but any fishing boat in 100mph gusts is going to have a really, really bad day.

Best thing for the CN and friends to do is report to local EOCs and request tasking. If the EOC deems that they need the help, they'll give them an assignment, and organize them under their own Incident Command System.

i know the cajun navy is trying to help but one of these days there is going to be a cajun navy disaster and the shine will wear off quickly.

For many years I have read and respected your posts. In this case though I really think you are misguided. The Cajun Navy is now one of the most experienced groups in the nation with floodwater rescue. Here in Louisiana we have to constantly deal with flooding either from simple rain events or from tropical systems. While they are a strictly volunteer group, most if not all of the volunteers grew up operating boats in shallow, debris filled waters. They are not a bunch of weekend warriors looking for attention. They are avid outdoorsmen for the most part that own equipment that most "official" agencies do not have. Or at least in limited numbers. They bring to the table experience, equipment, and a true desire to help others when the normal first response system is overwhelmed.
Several of my close friends are volunteers and they own surface drive, shallow draft boats, air boats, and shallow draft skiffs that can and do reach stranded people quicker and more effectively than most official agencies.
Take it for what it's worth but that's aren't a bunch of cowboys looking for attention!

. Agreed. Great post/response.

[wxman57]

Wrightsville beach is going to get pounded by the storm surge.... already rising. At 8.45 AML
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/

And I will say this, I was awake last night for the most intense blowup I have ever seen on IR and Dvorak. Even though the SFMR may have been suspect due to shoaling, they still found 101 kts FL Winds. This may be up to post season analysis but it is my belief it reattained Category 2 Strength last night. Clearly supported by FL winds.

The storm surge has already moved ashore as the center reached the coast. It came ashore at low tide. The tide is rising now. It will rise about another 4 ft between now and 1pm EDT:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=se&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=ncwrit

[J_J99]

Wrightsville beach is going to get pounded by the storm surge.... already rising. At 8.45 AML
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/

And I will say this, I was awake last night for the most intense blowup I have ever seen on IR and Dvorak. Even though the SFMR may have been suspect due to shoaling, they still found 101 kts FL Winds. This may be up to post season analysis but it is my belief it reattained Category 2 Strength last night. Clearly supported by FL winds.

The storm surge has already moved ashore as the center reached the coast. It came ashore at low tide. The tide is rising now. It will rise about another 4 ft between now and 1pm EDT:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=se&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=ncwrit

Thank you for the correction

Thoughts on the FL Winds, convective blowup, etc in support of a cat 2?

[sponger]

Looks stalled, unfortunately.

https://i.imgur.com/niSI7PQ.gif

the center appears to be slowly drawn inland per the latest loop.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-48

Looks like wobbling west nw now!

[jlauderdal]

Not in these winds they aren't. They might be staging as well, but any fishing boat in 100mph gusts is going to have a really, really bad day.

Best thing for the CN and friends to do is report to local EOCs and request tasking. If the EOC deems that they need the help, they'll give them an assignment, and organize them under their own Incident Command System.

i know the cajun navy is trying to help but one of these days there is going to be a cajun navy disaster and the shine will wear off quickly.

For many years I have read and respected your posts. In this case though I really think you are misguided. The Cajun Navy is now one of the most experienced groups in the nation with floodwater rescue. Here in Louisiana we have to constantly deal with flooding either from simple rain events or from tropical systems. While they are a strictly volunteer group, most if not all of the volunteers grew up operating boats in shallow, debris filled waters. They are not a bunch of weekend warriors looking for attention. They are avid outdoorsmen for the most part that own equipment that most "official" agencies do not have. Or at least in limited numbers. They bring to the table experience, equipment, and a true desire to help others when the normal first response system is overwhelmed.
Several of my close friends are volunteers and they own surface drive, shallow draft boats, air boats, and shallow draft skiffs that can and do reach stranded people quicker and more effectively than most official agencies.
Take it for what it's worth but that's aren't a bunch of cowboys looking for attention!

Hopefully they stay safe.

[Ken711]

326
WTNT41 KNHC 141449
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Florence's satellite signature remains very impressive even though
the eye is now located just inland over southeastern North Carolina
near Cape Fear. However, land interaction has taken its toll on the
inner-core circulation, and the previously well-defined eye in
radar imagery has shrunk and become filled with rain echoes. The
advisory intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on earlier
reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA
Doppler weather radar velocity data from Wilmington and Morehead
City, and nearby surface observations. The central pressure of 958
mb is based on observations from a NOAA NOS site in Wrightsville
Beach and a Weatherflow private station in Federal Point. Another
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be sampling the portion of
Florence's circulation over water during the next few hours.

Florence has turned west-southwestward and the motion estimate
is now 245/03 kt. Florence is expected to remain embedded within a
weak steering flow regime within a weakness in the subtropical
ridge, resulting in a slow westward motion for the next 36-48 hours
across South Carolina. As a shortwave trough currently located over
the eastern Great Lakes to Maryland moves eastward away from the
region over the next 2 days, the ridge will begin to build back in
and shift eastward, allowing Florence or its remnants to gradually
turn northward over the weekend, and then move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies as an extratropical low. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to
the middle of the model guidance envelope.

Wind data from the earlier aircraft mission, along with Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that Florence
has weakened. Additional slow weakening is expected today as the
center of Florence moves farther inland, with more rapid weakening
forecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across South
Carolina. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous advisory, and closely follows the trend of Decay SHIPS
model.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside later
today, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazard
associated with slow-moving Florence is and will be extremely heavy
rainfall. More than 14 inches of rain has already fallen in many
areas across southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to
come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland
through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along
portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through
today and tonight. This surge is also likely along portions of the
South Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is
expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of
the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of
the South Carolina coast later today. Strong winds could also
spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next
couple of days.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.0N 78.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0000Z 33.9N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 33.9N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 34.7N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1200Z 37.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 41.2N 78.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 44.4N 68.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Ken711]

From the NHC estimates on wind. Another 12 hours of 75-80 mph winds inland, followed by another 12 hours after that of 65-75 winds inland.

[TheAustinMan]

According to the USGS rain gauge on the bridge at Atlantic Beach, 37.61" of rain has fallen in the last two days, with 20.41" coming in the last 12 hours. Unofficially, this shatters the old North Carolina tropical cyclone rainfall record set by Floyd in 1999 of 24.06". Unfortunately, as Florence lingers around the coast, the continued development of rainbands are expected to continue dumping torrential rainfall across eastern North Carolina, and the final values could be quite extreme. The bands are also beginning to creep slowly further inland so we could be seeing river flooding upstream start to mount.

[Zarniwoop]

Question for an expert in light of the truly astounding rainfall totals.

What is it that makes one storm a extraordinary rain event (relative to other hurricanes) while another with a similar size, etc.. is just a normal hurricane rainfall event?

Other than sitting in place obviously.

[rolldamntoad]

Liatening local news eagle island is completely under water and USS north Carolina is underwater up to the guns. A family is trapped on the island in bad shape. Geez

I've been wondering about that ship as it has very close personal connection to my family (not that PEOPLE aren't a bigger concern of course). It really would be a shame if she essentially "sank" under the surge because restoration would be almost a crippling expense I'd think.

If you want an idea of what restoration could involve, look at the USS Texas. As good as the Texas Parks & Wildlife department is, she's had a very tough time. The staff really are trying their best (my brother-in-law is a museum exhibit specialist and knows one of the staff members, and we were on the ship recently), but they're fighting time, weather, budget constraints, and a variety of other factors.

[Steve]

Question for an expert in light of the truly astounding rainfall totals.

What is it that makes one storm a extraordinary rain event (relative to other hurricanes) while another with a similar size, etc.. is just a normal hurricane rainfall event?

Other than sitting in place obviously.

Not an expert, but the sitting in place is one of the main reasons. All storms are different and have their idiosyncracies. In this case, you have an eastward facing coast with a storm to the south. Points north and northwest of the center of circulation (and later northeast) will continue to get an onshore flow as long as the circulation is somewhat nearby. You can see it clearly on radar, and if you run a radar loop for a long period of time, you can see how it just keeps coming and coming and coming. That's liable to be the case until Florence is well inland.

For other storms, it depends. GCANE is one of the best non-mets on the site when it comes to pointing out potential excessive rainfall events. Among other things, he looks at CAPE values and other synoptics with specific storms. Sometimes you can see CAPE values of 4000 or more (something recently had a nearby cape of like 6,000 off the Atlantic Coast of Florida). Every storm is different. Every coastline is different. Every angle of approach is different. But it was pretty clear from days ago that Florence was going to be an endless surge and rain event for points north of landfall. That's born out well.

[jlauderdal]

So twc just had cantore in a wilmington, nc waffle house thats open. No surprise people don't take it seriously, no.power at the waffle house but cmon down in the storm. Twc and waffle house corporate are complicit.

[Maryellen46]

So twc just had cantore in a wilmington, nc waffle house thats open. No surprise people don't take it seriously, no.power at the waffle house but cmon down in the storm. Twc and waffle house corporate are complicit.

Waffle Houses are known to stay open during Hurricanes.

[smithtim]

Brandon Clement said the Cajun Navy has some people there helping rescue.

.

.... but one of these days there is going to be a cajun navy disaster and the shine will wear off quickly.

The Cajun Navy is a very knowledgeable and both well trained & experienced group and probably the least likely to make mistakes. And, let's be honest our guvment already had a list of failures in responses to these things as things get tied up in procedural delays etc

Bottom line is Cajun Navy, along with other organizations like Samaritans Purse etc, are an awsome group of qualified folks that just choose to work regular jobs than military stuff. I know communication is growing between government & these organizations and only hope it continues, perhaps some sort of "volunteer national guard" equivalent will evolve so the most amount of people can be there & ready in time of need.

And, I know how this goes first hand: during Harvey were there on the ground helping ( not Houston, rather south near landfall zone ) and the feds nowhere to be found! Only folks on ground were army of volunteers, power workers from out of state & the local cops/ems. Sometimes the government isn't enough- no feasible etc, but back to Florence and good news is from early reports things looking better than was expected with those cat4 predictions so doubt this one will be manpower issue...

[Raebie]

So twc just had cantore in a wilmington, nc waffle house thats open. No surprise people don't take it seriously, no.power at the waffle house but cmon down in the storm. Twc and waffle house corporate are complicit.

That's a little dramatic. People have to eat and it's not like they're forcing anyone to come out of their homes for hash browns.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Outage Update - 1530z
North Carolina: 529,032
South Carolina: 51,554

NC numbers will likely stabilize by this afternoon, I expect SC outages to climb sharply.

[smithtim]

Hey all I am still live streaming from the eyewall or outer inne whatever it is it has been long and gust well over hurricane force.
https://www.facebook.com/pg/HurricaneFlorenceC4/posts/

Hey bro, how you'd make out all ok all safe? Are you beachside, wave pics!


Text me- I might be heading up part of recovery???