ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Postel on TWC just showed that the 5 day track that showed landfall was off by only 2 miles. They did miss the timing some though, but the NHC did an excellent job on landfall location.

yeah this storm reinforces the NHC cred on track forecasting with an exclamation point and also underscores their admitted weakness WRT intensity forecasts.

[plasticup]

Postel on TWC just showed that the 5 day track that showed landfall was off by only 2 miles. They did miss the timing some though, but the NHC did an excellent job on landfall location.

That's cherry-picking data though. Their 5-day prediction of a Bermuda landfall missed by 300+ miles. Even the NHC will tell you that the 5-day cone has a large error and the precision of this prediction, while skilled, involved a lot of luck.

[ronyan]

Postel on TWC just showed that the 5 day track that showed landfall was off by only 2 miles. They did miss the timing some though, but the NHC did an excellent job on landfall location.

That's cherry-picking data though. Their 5-day prediction of a Bermuda landfall missed by 300+ miles. Even the NHC will tell you that the 5-day cone has a large error and the precision of this prediction, while skilled, involved a lot of luck.

Were they flying upper air missions during that time?

[wx98]

Postel on TWC just showed that the 5 day track that showed landfall was off by only 2 miles. They did miss the timing some though, but the NHC did an excellent job on landfall location.

That's cherry-picking data though. Their 5-day prediction of a Bermuda landfall missed by 300+ miles. Even the NHC will tell you that the 5-day cone has a large error and the precision of this prediction, while skilled, involved a lot of luck.

Very true, but once they did lock on a landfall location near Wilmington it ended up verifying.

[dukeblue219]

I never remember growing up people ever staying behind during these types of storms. (1986-1999)

Maybe they did and they died and we never heard about it because Social media wasn't there and it was printed on a newspaper months after the storm as a footnote?

Or is it just going with the general trend of people are getting dumber and IQ's dropping? No reason these sorts of video's should be on twitter as there were tons of shelters open for those that could not evacuate.
I heard something like only half of wilmington actually evacuated. Going to be a terrible weekend for them.

A lot of it is just a social media thing and the prevalence of reliable 3G/4G data. In the past you had a couple TWC types with satellite links to TV stations reporting live and that was intermittent at best. Now anyone with a phone can broadcast or post live from the worst of the storm with remarkable reliability, and stories of people staying behind spread fast on social media. People have been "toughing it out" since the dawn of time. I doubt the numbers are increasing, but you didn't hear about it as much in the (recent) past because generally the after-the-fact reporting would have been more grounded in reality and less in instantaneous rumor-mongering.

[jlauderdal]

Guy driving around in new Bern live stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtwzQcLSyeU

More proof IQ's are falling rapidly. One powerline...One puddle..goodbye.

that bozo is taking directions from people on chat

[Steve]

I never remember growing up people ever staying behind during these types of storms. (1986-1999)

Maybe they did and they died and we never heard about it because Social media wasn't there and it was printed on a newspaper months after the storm as a footnote?

Or is it just going with the general trend of people are getting dumber and IQ's dropping? No reason these sorts of video's should be on twitter as there were tons of shelters open for those that could not evacuate.
I heard something like only half of wilmington actually evacuated. Going to be a terrible weekend for them.

A lot of it is just a social media thing and the prevalence of reliable 3G/4G data. In the past you had a couple TWC types with satellite links to TV stations reporting live and that was intermittent at best. Now anyone with a phone can broadcast or post live from the worst of the storm with remarkable reliability, and stories of people staying behind spread fast on social media. People have been "toughing it out" since the dawn of time. I doubt the numbers are increasing, but you didn't hear about it as much in the (recent) past because generally the after-the-fact reporting would have been more grounded in reality and less in instantaneous rumor-mongering.

Agreed on the prevalence of rumor mongering and more access to information. But I even moreso agree with the dumbing down and lessening of IQ's among most Americans. It's more social than political, but we're kind of in a race to the bottom. We've lost any idea of commonality and moving the country forward in favor of team worshiping. And we're getting really ******* dumb along the way believing in lizard ancestors overlords, flat earths, and any number of other inane nonsense that sounds good. Still,

Meanwhile, surge and rain keep pumping into coastal NC.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

[psyclone]

Postel on TWC just showed that the 5 day track that showed landfall was off by only 2 miles. They did miss the timing some though, but the NHC did an excellent job on landfall location.

That's cherry-picking data though. Their 5-day prediction of a Bermuda landfall missed by 300+ miles. Even the NHC will tell you that the 5-day cone has a large error and the precision of this prediction, while skilled, involved a lot of luck.

Bermuda was never predicted to experience a landfall. it barely entered the 5 day track. All of the archived advisories are out there for anyone to look at. You're way off and it's not the first time.

[AdamFirst]

So twc just had cantore in a wilmington, nc waffle house thats open. No surprise people don't take it seriously, no.power at the waffle house but cmon down in the storm. Twc and waffle house corporate are complicit.

Waffle Houses are known to stay open during Hurricanes.

complicit in what?

Having weathered a few hurricanes, open restaurants are a GODSEND.

I applaud Waffle House.

Off topic but reinforcing that point, the afternoon after Hurricane Wilma blew through here in 2005 the local Domino's was open , running on emergency generator and slinging pizzas out for $5, cash only, just so they can get rid of their inventory. We had hot pizza that night and it was a huge morale boost. Comfort food is just that - for comfort. As long as the employees can safely get to work and want to work, why not open?

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon still supports a hurricane with 67kt SFMR.

[xironman]

Cyclonic loop strikes again, its making an attempt at the ocean at the NC/SC border.

[dukeblue219]

Cyclonic loop strikes again, its making an attempt at the ocean at the NC/SC border.

It's getting harder to discern the slight motion with the center almost directly above the Wilmington radar station. Looks pretty stationary to me, though.

[FLpanhandle91]

No end in sight for the Atlantic Beach/Emerald Isle area up to New Bern. Should be around high tide right now. Rotation embedded within that band is causing brief tornados as well.

[tomatkins]

Waffle Houses are known to stay open during Hurricanes.

complicit in what?

Having weathered a few hurricanes, open restaurants are a GODSEND.

I applaud Waffle House.

If you aren't from the South you wouldn't understand the Waffle House mentality. If they don't open, the world is coming to an end. They opened to get rid of food before it spoiled after Matthew and donated food to workers in Columbus County.

In fact, its such a corporate policy that disaster relief uses it as an unofficial measure of storm damage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index

[bob rulz]

Can we can the talk about "declining IQs" and other crap like that? People have stayed behind in hurricanes forever, all you have to do is look at death tolls from hurricanes back then to know that people did, they just didn't have social media to broadcast their every move and for us to hear about every person that stayed behind while the hurricane is still going. Also, people have always believed in conspiracy theories too, that's nothing new either.

Hate to contribute to the off-topic posts, it just really bothers me when I see posts like that.

[tomatkins]

Question for an expert in light of the truly astounding rainfall totals.

What is it that makes one storm a extraordinary rain event (relative to other hurricanes) while another with a similar size, etc.. is just a normal hurricane rainfall event?

Other than sitting in place obviously.

Thats mostly it - most hurricanes in this region move through pretty quickly. They also tend to move just on shore southwest to northeast - so the heaviest rains (usually on the north east side of the storm) usually stay offshore.

[Steve]

Can we can the talk about "declining IQs" and other crap like that? People have stayed behind in hurricanes forever, all you have to do is look at death tolls from hurricanes back then to know that people did, they just didn't have social media to broadcast their every move and for us to hear about every person that stayed behind while the hurricane is still going. Also, people have always believed in conspiracy theories too, that's nothing new either.

Hate to contribute to the off-topic posts, it just really bothers me when I see posts like that.

No offense bob, but the nature of my post wasn't to bother you. It was to tell the truth. I did. And we're getting dumber. Just the same, I'm very appreciative of those who put their lives on the line to bring the raw story. A lot of the chasers that post here are very experienced in what they do and bring the action home to the rest of us. I've stayed, I've evacuated. But to the original point, I'm not going to allow group think on social media to control my actions. "Oh, it's only a Category 2. I've been through way worse" only to see high tide up to your kitchen table. Anyway, I ended my post on it with a radar loop to actually get it back on topic. Here's another attempt:

Visible Satellite from NOAA. Can't seem to tell if there is a blowup nearest to the coast or if it's drifting slightly southwest.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

[xironman]

Cyclonic loop strikes again, its making an attempt at the ocean at the NC/SC border.

It's getting harder to discern the slight motion with the center almost directly above the Wilmington radar station. Looks pretty stationary to me, though.

I am using the COD radar with 48 frame loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-48 too big to post here.

[Jag95]

Visible Satellite from NOAA. Can't seem to tell if there is a blowup nearest to the coast or if it's drifting slightly southwest.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

Even after having crossed the coast 12 hours ago, from that perspective in space Florence has never looked better. Perfectly symmetrical.

[Steve]

Visible Satellite from NOAA. Can't seem to tell if there is a blowup nearest to the coast or if it's drifting slightly southwest.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

Even after having crossed the coast 12 hours ago, from that perspective in space Florence has never looked better. Perfectly symmetrical.

For sure. I have no idea whether a stronger Florence would have necessarily done exactly the same thing that actual Florence did. But just based off the slow motion, people are going to have their hands full with the Cat 1/2 it was and is. I'm just glad it's not a lot stronger and more violent. I still can't get a feel for movement on it either.