ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4601 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:21 am

Scanning gauges, worst flooding at this time appears to be at the red arrow below


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4602 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:23 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4603 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:24 am

sponger wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
sponger wrote:Looks like landfall will be Topsail Beach.
a wobble and wrightsville gets the honor


Going to be close!
topsail has the edge right now, angle of approach helping topsail too
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4604 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:24 am

Outage Update - 0930z
North Carolina: 285,150
South Carolina: 12,715

I expect to see a million outages by the end of the day. Flo is strengthening as she comes in, and with the warm Gulf Stream and immense moisture fetch, she could continue to maintain that strength while her core is partially over water.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4605 Postby Hurrilurker » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:25 am

It looks like ther are 2 nuclear reactors really close to the likely landfall point, I assume they have made preparations but still a bit scary. The flooding at Fukushima was a major factor in the failures.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4606 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:26 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4607 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:29 am

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 9:22Z

A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 8:59:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 34.20N 77.49W

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 958mb (28.29 inHg)

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)

H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSW (205°) of center fix at 8:56:30Z

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) of center fix at 9:02:30Z

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 95kts (~ 109.3mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (53°) from the flight level center at 6:44:00Z
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4608 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:31 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4609 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:33 am

549
URNT12 KNHC 140922
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 14/08:59:10Z
B. 34.20 deg N 077.49 deg W
C. 700 mb 2730 m
D. 958 mb
E. 055 deg 7 kt
F. CLOSED
G. CO20-60
H. 70 kt
I. 205 deg 8 nm 08:56:30Z
J. 285 deg 62 kt
K. 206 deg 10 nm 08:56:00Z
L. 64 kt
M. 062 deg 12 nm 09:02:30Z
N. 155 deg 85 kt
O. 065 deg 20 nm 09:05:00Z
P. 13 C / 3049 m
Q. 16 C / 3049 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 1706A FLORENCE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 95 KT 053 / 47 NM 06:44:00Z
;
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4610 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:34 am

Time and time again, people underestimate these things. "Only a cat 1..." the most foolish sentence around. People who stayed behind are now putting first responders lives' on the line, for what? What was the point of not evacuating?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4611 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:36 am

Estimated radii of max winds

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4612 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:40 am

From Newport/Morehead Local Statement, updated at 0915z:

The potential for historic flooding continues across portions of
Eastern North Carolina due to the prolonged period of heavy rainfall as
Florence slowly moves into the Carolinas. The area has received as
much as 10 to 15 inches over the last 24 hours, and additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 FEET will still be possible through the weekend.

Highest rainfall totals are expected across the southern half to the
area. These rainfall amounts will likely cause catastrophic flash
flooding, followed by significant and prolonged river flooding lasting
well into next week.

Major to potentially record river flooding is expected for rivers and
streams primarily over Duplin, Onslow, Carteret, and Craven Counties
where the heaviest rain is likely to fall. Elsewhere all other rivers
and streams are vulnerable to moderate or major flooding with this
storm. Many will reach flood stage as early as tonight, and will
continue to rise well into next week. Given the generally slow rise of
area rivers, most won't crest until mid to late next week extending the
impacts from this long duration flood event.


Extreme storm surge impacts will continue with Hurricane Florence.
Inundation of up to 7 to 11 feet above ground with locally higher
amounts will be possible near and to the north and east of the center
of the storm across the southern North Carolina coast, including the
Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well as adjacent streams
and bays. Catastrophic storm surge has occurred for areas along the
Neuse River, including New Bern where hundreds of water rescues have
occurred and are still underway.
Moderate to significant storm surge
flooding will continue over the northern coast with inundation of 3 to
6 feet above ground.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4613 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:47 am

It's really only a technicality at this point, but I feel this should've been upped to a Cat 2 based on flight winds at least, given the current radar appearance.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4614 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:50 am

Ok, I’m watching this live feed
https://severestudios.com/live-storm-chasing-map/
Kip Metcalf, and the water is up to the thighs of firemen trying to go house to house in New Bern. They just rescued some animals and he said they said they found some people, in their attic and it sounded like they didn’t survive. Just now they found a lady the are rescuing. It is near the river.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4615 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:57 am

artist wrote:Ok, I’m watching this live feed
https://severestudios.com/live-storm-chasing-map/
Kip Metcalf, and the water is up to the thighs of firemen trying to go house to house in New Bern. They just rescued some animals and he said they said they found some people, in their attic and it sounded like they didn’t survive. Just now they found a lady the are rescuing. It is near the river.

Ugh, wet turnout gear.

In all seriousness...New Bern is going to get at least 6-12 more hours of rain, probably more. If this is partially rain flooding, it's going to get worse. If it's just surge, it should start to subside later this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4616 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:58 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4617 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:00 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4618 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:01 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4619 Postby OverlandHurricane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:02 am

Mark Sudduth's camera at New Bern was going under water as of about 1220 AM EDT.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/stat ... 34595?s=19
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4620 Postby xironman » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:05 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
artist wrote:Ok, I’m watching this live feed
https://severestudios.com/live-storm-chasing-map/
Kip Metcalf, and the water is up to the thighs of firemen trying to go house to house in New Bern. They just rescued some animals and he said they said they found some people, in their attic and it sounded like they didn’t survive. Just now they found a lady the are rescuing. It is near the river.

Ugh, wet turnout gear.

In all seriousness...New Bern is going to get at least 6-12 more hours of rain, probably more. If this is partially rain flooding, it's going to get worse. If it's just surge, it should start to subside later this afternoon.


New Bern is surge. Pamlico Sound is shallow so it just gets pushed up the rivers easily by continuous winds.
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