ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4901 Postby xironman » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:08 am

The fire hose bringing in warm wet gulf stream air looks like it is set up well

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4902 Postby Powellrm » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:42 am

Nimbus wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Looks like the SW turn happened over land...


NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..


"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4903 Postby Dylan » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:42 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4904 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:19 am

Dang those feeders look bad. “I think we’re gonna need a bigger boat” :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4905 Postby nascarfan999 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:21 am

Powellrm wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Looks like the SW turn happened over land...


NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..


"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?


I get your point, but Tulsa Oklahoma has a university called the Hurricane as well. It seems like officials did a pretty good job as far as I can tell, but there's always going to be some people who do not take it seriously.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4906 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:22 am

Powellrm wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Looks like the SW turn happened over land...


NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..


"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?


Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4907 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:03 am

caneman wrote:
Powellrm wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..


"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?


Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.



Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4908 Postby sittingduck » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:42 am

CronkPSU wrote:
caneman wrote:
Powellrm wrote:
"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?


Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.



Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits


Based on this it would be http://www.stormfax.com/hurstate.htm
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4909 Postby AlabamaDave » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:44 am

CronkPSU wrote:
Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits


Yes it is, and barely behind Louisiana. From https://www.cnn.com/2017/09/11/us/hurri ... index.html

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4910 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:45 am

curtadams wrote:Looking at that data, it doesn't look like there is a malfunction overmeasuring rain because the buckets are dumping out prematurely (the stated reason). First, the wind only got up to about 50 mph there, which is not all that high. Second, the rain rate dropped to near zero at peak wind, suggesting if anything it's undermeasuring in high wind. Third, the high rates have continued with 30 mph wind and surely that's not problematic with an official rain gauge?


Note that the issue was with certain USGS rapidly-deployed gauges, not with any permanently mounted NWS gauges. The portable tipping-bucket gauges were affected by wind. Even 30 or 40 mph winds could cause issues with such gauges as they could be jostled around by even lower wind speeds. This would cause the buckets to tip prematurely, over-measuring the rainfall
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4911 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:49 am

wxman57 wrote:
curtadams wrote:Looking at that data, it doesn't look like there is a malfunction overmeasuring rain because the buckets are dumping out prematurely (the stated reason). First, the wind only got up to about 50 mph there, which is not all that high. Second, the rain rate dropped to near zero at peak wind, suggesting if anything it's undermeasuring in high wind. Third, the high rates have continued with 30 mph wind and surely that's not problematic with an official rain gauge?


Note that the issue was with certain USGS rapidly-deployed gauges, not with any permanently mounted NWS gauges. The portable tipping-bucket gauges were affected by wind. Even 30 or 40 mph winds could cause issues with such gauges as they could be jostled around by even lower wind speeds. This would cause the buckets to tip prematurely, over-measuring the rainfall


Regardless of gauge problems or not, over 40 inches is likely. GFS forecasted as high as 78 inches of rain! :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4912 Postby Powellrm » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:05 am

nascarfan999 wrote:
Powellrm wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..


"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?


I get your point, but Tulsa Oklahoma has a university called the Hurricane as well. It seems like officials did a pretty good job as far as I can tell, but there's always going to be some people who do not take it seriously.


Not to get off track, but the Tulsa mascot of hurricane is in reference to a tornado, and they went with hurricane because there was some kind of naming issue I believe.

Anyways, I would say that many people here too it seriously. A good portion of wilmington evacuated.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4913 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:06 am

CronkPSU wrote:
caneman wrote:
Powellrm wrote:
"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?


Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.



Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits


North and South Carolina are 4th so they do get their fair share of hits
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4914 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:39 am

caneman wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
caneman wrote:
Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.



Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits


North and South Carolina are 4th so they do get their fair share of hits


I know this is getting OT but Louisiana doesn’t exactly have a huge coastline like Texas and Florida. Looks like LA gets more bang for the buck.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4915 Postby syfr » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:59 am

Powellrm wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Looks like the SW turn happened over land...


NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..


"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?


I was going to say "that's news to us in NC". :double:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4916 Postby NC George » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:05 am

toad strangler wrote:
caneman wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:

Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits


North and South Carolina are 4th so they do get their fair share of hits


I know this is getting OT but Louisiana doesn’t exactly have a huge coastline like Texas and Florida. Looks like LA gets more bang for the buck.


Neither does NC, and we're only 3 behind LA. Furthermore, that's NC alone that' right behind LA. If you were to combing the Carolinas, we'd be #2. Oh, and LA is right ahead of TX in coastline length you you do it the short method, and double if you do it the long method.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4917 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:24 am

NC George wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
caneman wrote:
North and South Carolina are 4th so they do get their fair share of hits


I know this is getting OT but Louisiana doesn’t exactly have a huge coastline like Texas and Florida. Looks like LA gets more bang for the buck.


Neither does NC, and we're only 3 behind LA. Furthermore, that's NC alone that' right behind LA. If you were to combing the Carolinas, we'd be #2. Oh, and LA is right ahead of TX in coastline length you you do it the short method, and double if you do it the long method.


Not discounting NC by any means. You have the cyclone “cow catcher” in the Outer Banks. BTW, I don’t agree with your interpretation of the LA coast as it pertains to cyclone landfalls but that’s a debate for a different thread.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4918 Postby Incoming! » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:31 am

Um... where exactly was landfall for the PA direct hit? Heh heh...

And 2 struck along the approximate 18 miles of New Hampshire coastline? Hmmm...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4919 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:18 pm

Incoming! wrote:Um... where exactly was landfall for the PA direct hit? Heh heh...

And 2 struck along the approximate 18 miles of New Hampshire coastline? Hmmm...

I assume the definition is amount of hurricanes to pass over, not make landfall on, which would explain PA and NH. According to the NHC two hurricanes passed over New Hampshire, a category 1 and a category 2.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4920 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:41 pm

According to radar estimates up to 45" have fallen in parts of central coastal NC, even if it is over doing it by 20% rainfalls in the 30+" is not out of the question :double:

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