ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4961 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:50 am

Heavy rain band is now over Wilmington and Southport. If that continues overnight, the flooding could be very bad by the morning.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4962 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:12 am

I know this is a bit of a topic change, but it seems like some models want to revive Florence as a TC once it recurves back into the ocean next week, especially if it stays below 40N latitude. The GFS has done it on some runs.

That would still be named Florence, correct?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4963 Postby bob rulz » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:54 am

As long as it doesn't merge with another system then it should still be Florence yes, if that ends up happening.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4964 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:40 am

Still pulling moisture inland.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4965 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:23 am

I remember on Friday morning there were some here saying "is that it?" for Wilmington. I replied that even through Florence was inland and west of Wilmington that the rain hadn't even really started there yet, pointing to the feeder band impacting the coast well northeast of Wilmington. Swansboro recorded over 30 inches from that feeder band. Those slow-moving feeder bands can produce a lot of rain well east of the center.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4966 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:24 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I know this is a bit of a topic change, but it seems like some models want to revive Florence as a TC once it recurves back into the ocean next week, especially if it stays below 40N latitude. The GFS has done it on some runs.

That would still be named Florence, correct?


It would be Florence if it wasn't a cold-core non-tropical/frontal low, which the models are indicating.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4967 Postby Ian2401 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:53 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4968 Postby hicksta » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:50 am

wxman57 wrote:I remember on Friday morning there were some here saying "is that it?" for Wilmington. I replied that even through Florence was inland and west of Wilmington that the rain hadn't even really started there yet, pointing to the feeder band impacting the coast well northeast of Wilmington. Swansboro recorded over 30 inches from that feeder band. Those slow-moving feeder bands can produce a lot of rain well east of the center.


This whole set up hits close to home due to Harvey flooding my house... prayers for those involved
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4969 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:06 am



Only a small portion of the 51 members have a closed surface low and per another source this small number of members have SLPs all weaker than 1003 mb. Furthermore, I’m keeping in mind the near nightmare scenario the EPS just had on several runs with near half or more of the members having Flo stay offshore, move SW, and then hitting SC/GA as a strong TS or H. Nothing remotely close to that happened.

If that’s not enough, the last few GEFS have a handful of members with only a very weak low of 1,010+ mb milling around that never does much of anything. Furthermore, the 0Z GEPS has next to nothing. So, considering these points, I’m not the least bit worried about this right now as the possibility of anything of significance appears to be very low. I’m much more curious about what may or may not happen around 10/1 in the SW Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4970 Postby Whiskerbarb » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:23 pm

My daughter is travelling to the Yucatan late September. Is something potentially brewing around October 1st ?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4971 Postby mitchell » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:20 pm

jasons wrote:
NC George wrote:


There are two sides to every story. This is a comment from one of the producers:

From Beth Weiss:


To you, a viewer, it appears like he was being over dramatic. I was there and he was not. What you don’t see is the side of a building to his left. When wind blows around a building, it acts like a funnel. People want to see the weather, that’s why they watch it. So to demonstrate the weather, he stands where it’s most visible. He also knows to brace himself in case of fierce gusts.

.......snip...

I’m sure I won’t change any minds but I do think a lot of people are being completely ridiculous.


Thats a revealing and unsurprising explanation. Reporting from a location where a building is turning 25 mile an hour wind into twice that and not mentioning that detail. To demonstrate the weather, he stands where its most visible, even if its not representative of general conditions. If MIke Seidel and TWC had done this to make a point about how buildings can completely alter wind velocities, and show the people strolling along and said something like " this is why roof connectors, clearing debris from around your house and staying away from windows is critical even in areas that aren't experiencing hurricane force winds - buildings can create much higher wind localized velocities than those being experienced in general" .

Not impressed....TWC is generating drama as usual. Much like the TWC weather reporters who constantly stand on a sand dune at some coastal location at high tide well away from the part of a storm experiencing severe impacts and say "the beach at ___ is completely gone" when it obviously isn't, its just flooded at high tide / storm surge.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#4972 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 70
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND CATASTROPHIC/HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF GREENVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southern and western North Carolina and portions of far
northern South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina...northern South Carolina and portions of Western
Virginia and Southern West Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence
was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to accelerate to the north today and tonight
before turning eastward across Southern New England on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is expected over the next 24 hours
before intensification begins on Tuesday as the system transitions
into an extratropical low.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall over the next couple of days. Portions of the Carolinas,
Mid-Atlantic States, and Southern New England are expected to
receive an additional 2 to 5 inches of rain...with isolated maximum
of 8 inches possible.

Storm total accumulations of up to...
40 inches in southern North Carolina
20 inches in northern South Carolina and western North Carolina...
will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant
river flooding. An elevated risk for landslides exists in western
North Carolina.

Storm total accumulations up to...
15 inches in southwest Virginia and 5-10 inches in the remainder of
the Mid-Atlantic and New England States will produce
life-threatening flash flooding and significant river
flooding. An elevated risk for landslides exists in southwest
Virginia.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible near the eastern border
of the Carolinas into tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 34.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/0600Z 36.3N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1800Z 38.5N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 40.8N 74.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 42.8N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z 44.5N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z 46.3N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4973 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:22 pm

Is FLorence post-tropical?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4974 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:03 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Is FLorence post-tropical?


Not at this time no.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4975 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:34 pm

tornado on ground by snow hill nc
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4976 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:17 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

If I were to go back and look at the best track of Florence (note: UNOFFICIAL), here is how I would set it:

AL062018, FLORENCE, 74,
20180830, 0600, , LO, 12.8N, 16.9W, 25, 1009,
20180830, 1200, , LO, 12.8N, 17.9W, 25, 1008,
20180830, 1800, , LO, 12.9N, 19.0W, 25, 1008,
20180831, 0000, , LO, 13.1N, 20.2W, 30, 1007,
20180831, 0600, , LO, 13.4N, 21.3W, 30, 1007,
20180831, 1200, , TD, 13.6N, 22.5W, 30, 1006,
20180831, 1800, , TD, 13.8N, 23.8W, 30, 1006,
20180901, 0000, , TD, 14.0N, 24.9W, 30, 1006,
20180901, 0600, , TD, 14.3N, 26.1W, 30, 1006,
20180901, 1200, , TS, 14.8N, 27.2W, 35, 1004,
20180901, 1800, , TS, 15.4N, 28.3W, 35, 1004,
20180902, 0000, , TS, 15.8N, 29.5W, 40, 1002,
20180902, 0600, , TS, 16.4N, 30.8W, 45, 1000,
20180902, 1200, , TS, 16.8N, 32.4W, 45, 1000,
20180902, 1800, , TS, 17.2N, 33.9W, 45, 999,
20180903, 0000, , TS, 17.6N, 35.2W, 45, 999,
20180903, 0600, , TS, 17.9N, 36.6W, 50, 997,
20180903, 1200, , TS, 18.2N, 38.0W, 55, 995,
20180903, 1800, , TS, 18.4N, 39.2W, 60, 993,
20180904, 0000, , TS, 18.7N, 40.2W, 60, 992,
20180904, 0600, , HU, 19.1N, 41.1W, 65, 989,
20180904, 1200, , HU, 19.5N, 42.0W, 70, 987,
20180904, 1800, , HU, 20.0N, 42.7W, 80, 982,
20180905, 0000, , HU, 20.4N, 43.5W, 90, 974,
20180905, 0600, , HU, 21.1N, 44.3W, 100, 967,
20180905, 1200, , HU, 21.7N, 45.2W, 115, 954,
20180905, 1800, , HU, 22.4N, 46.2W, 120, 950,
20180906, 0000, , HU, 23.1N, 46.9W, 110, 956,
20180906, 0600, , HU, 23.8N, 47.6W, 95, 969,
20180906, 1200, , HU, 24.4N, 48.3W, 80, 979,
20180906, 1800, , HU, 24.8N, 49.0W, 65, 988,
20180907, 0000, , TS, 25.0N, 49.6W, 60, 991,
20180907, 0600, , TS, 25.0N, 50.3W, 60, 991,
20180907, 1200, , TS, 24.9N, 51.1W, 60, 992,
20180907, 1800, , TS, 24.8N, 52.0W, 55, 994,
20180908, 0000, , TS, 24.7N, 52.8W, 50, 996,
20180908, 0600, , TS, 24.6N, 53.5W, 55, 993,
20180908, 1200, , TS, 24.6N, 54.1W, 55, 991,
20180908, 1800, , TS, 24.5N, 54.5W, 60, 988,
20180909, 0000, , TS, 24.5N, 55.0W, 60, 987,
20180909, 0600, , HU, 24.4N, 55.5W, 65, 986,
20180909, 1200, , HU, 24.4N, 56.1W, 70, 985,
20180909, 1800, , HU, 24.4N, 56.7W, 75, 980,
20180910, 0000, , HU, 24.5N, 57.4W, 85, 971,
20180910, 0600, , HU, 24.7N, 58.4W, 95, 962,
20180910, 1200, , HU, 24.9N, 59.5W, 105, 954,
20180910, 1800, , HU, 25.2N, 60.6W, 120, 943,
20180910, 2100, P, HU, 25.4N, 61.1W, 120, 941,
20180911, 0000, , HU, 25.6N, 61.8W, 115, 944,
20180911, 0600, , HU, 26.0N, 63.2W, 110, 948,
20180911, 1200, , HU, 26.5N, 64.7W, 110, 950,
20180911, 1800, , HU, 27.2N, 66.4W, 115, 946,
20180912, 0000, , HU, 27.9N, 68.1W, 115, 943,
20180912, 0600, , HU, 28.7N, 69.5W, 110, 945,
20180912, 1200, , HU, 29.4N, 70.7W, 110, 943,
20180912, 1800, , HU, 30.4N, 71.9W, 100, 947,
20180913, 0000, , HU, 31.5N, 73.2W, 90, 955,
20180913, 0600, , HU, 32.4N, 74.2W, 85, 954,
20180913, 1200, , HU, 33.1N, 75.1W, 85, 954,
20180913, 1800, , HU, 33.6N, 76.0W, 80, 955,
20180914, 0000, , HU, 34.0N, 76.6W, 80, 953,
20180914, 0600, , HU, 34.2N, 77.2W, 75, 952,
20180914, 1115, L, HU, 34.2N, 77.8W, 75, 954,
20180914, 1200, , HU, 34.1N, 77.9W, 70, 955,
20180914, 1800, , HU, 34.0N, 78.4W, 65, 966,
20180915, 0000, , TS, 33.9N, 78.8W, 55, 978,
20180915, 0600, , TS, 33.7N, 79.2W, 50, 986,
20180915, 1200, , TS, 33.6N, 79.5W, 50, 991,
20180915, 1800, , TS, 33.6N, 79.8W, 45, 996,
20180916, 0000, , TS, 33.6N, 80.2W, 40, 999,
20180916, 0600, , TS, 33.6N, 80.8W, 35, 1001,
20180916, 1200, , TD, 33.7N, 81.4W, 30, 1003,
20180916, 1800, , TD, 34.1N, 82.1W, 30, 1005,
20180917, 0000, , TD, 34.9N, 82.0W, 25, 1008,

A few thoughts:

* The initial peak intensity is increased to 120 kt based on an ADT of T6.1-6.2.
* The weakening on the 6th and 7th in the shear is accelerated, dropping from 120 to 65 kt in 24 hours, before slowing down. Bottoms out at 50 kt.
* The minimum pressure is analyzed between synoptic points at 941 mb. The peak intensity at that point, 120 kt, is not changed and well supported.
* Intensities are largely decreased moving forward, as I thought the operational estimates were a bit generous. The biggest drops are on the 13th.
* The peak intensity is a real challenge:
** Highest SFMR was 85 kt, but it was in shallow water shoals, hence I have disregarded it.
** Flight level winds were around 90-95 kt, but for the latter part of a day or two, 90% was not the proper estimate. Using a more representative 80% estimate leads to 72-76 kt.
** The highest surface observations had winds around 73 kt with gusts up to 90 kt. Those were likely well placed to grab the peak.
** Satellite estimates, for what they are worth, were around T4.5 = 77 kt.
** There were no dropsondes around the time of landfall.
* For all those analyses, my conclusion for the landfall intensity is 75 kt, which is a bit lower than the operational intensity. That is despite a pressure of 954 mb - other storms in the area had mismatches.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4977 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:36 pm

I think it's increasingly clear by this point that wind/pressure relationships for long lived really large and broad storms or ones with rapid intensity fluctuations need to be disregarded anyway without direct recon or surface obs proof; seeing a lot of landfalling storms in the last several years with winds less than one would expect for the pressure (Alex, Ike, Isaac, Rita, Katrina, etc) Not that this is a bad thing for those in its path lol
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4978 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:47 pm

EquusStorm wrote:I think it's increasingly clear by this point that wind/pressure relationships for long lived really large and broad storms or ones with rapid intensity fluctuations need to be disregarded anyway without direct recon or surface obs proof; seeing a lot of landfalling storms in the last several years with winds less than one would expect for the pressure (Alex, Ike, Isaac, Rita, Katrina, etc) Not that this is a bad thing for those in its path lol


Indeed, that is the case once again. The radius of maximum winds was pretty large too, and so was the circulation.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#4979 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 71
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND CATASTROPHIC/HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 82.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF GREENVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southern and western North Carolina, portions of far northeast
South Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina...northern South Carolina and portions of Western
Virginia and southern and eastern West Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 82.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
this motion is expected to become northeasterly on Monday
before accelerating and becoming more easterly on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected on Monday before
re-intensifying as it transitions to an extratropical cyclone
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall over the next couple of days. Portions of the Carolinas,
Mid-Atlantic States, and Southern New England are expected to
receive an additional 2 to 5 inches of rain...with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible.

Storm total accumulations of up to...
40 inches in southern North Carolina
20 inches in northern South Carolina and western North Carolina...
will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant
river flooding. An elevated risk for landslides exists in western
North Carolina.

Storm total accumulations up to...
15 inches in southwest Virginia and 5-10 inches in the remainder of
the Mid-Atlantic and New England States will produce
life-threatening flash flooding and significant river
flooding. An elevated risk for landslides exists in southwest
Virginia.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes remain possible from northeast
South Carolina and eastern/central North Carolina into parts of
Virginia, western Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania through
Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Bann/Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 35.5N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1200Z 37.2N 81.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 38.9N 80.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 40.3N 76.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 41.5N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 42.9N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z 45.0N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z 47.1N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#4980 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:55 pm

Florence is officially post-tropical now.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.


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