ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tolakram]

Is there any data on which model is verifying or most accurate so far with Florence's track?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro hour 96: Hits CHS from only a barely offshore position (maybe only 10 miles offshore at most) instead of SAV hit from 50 miles offshore like the 0Z had. So, significant N change from 0Z.

Models seem to be converging w/ a Wilmington NC/Myrtle Beach/Charleston... inland SC solution.

Maybe, just maybe today's 0Z Euro will turn out to be the furthest south of any model's run past and to come. Model trends tend to be northward more than southward per my recollection of SE US threats following these for many years. Perhaps the models first needed to digest a stronger Midwest high than earlier thought, thus inducing some new SW motion in the forecast track after the slowdown. However, now that that stronger high has been digested, maybe the trend will resume the typical northward trend as perhaps that high starts to give in a bit more. We'll see. Nobody knows, which is what makes this hobby so interesting. But that's my best guess now, especially since that 0Z Euro was a south outlier for any operational. If these were predictable, it would be boring to follow the models.

[Palmcitycane]

Is there any data on which model is verifying or most accurate so far with Florence's track?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

https://i.imgur.com/2Xvjpai.png

Thank you Mark!

[plasticup]

Is there any data on which model is verifying or most accurate so far with Florence's track?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

https://i.imgur.com/2Xvjpai.png

Does this mean the TVCN beat the NHC in terms of location accuracy? Is that typical?

[bonjourno]

Is there any data on which model is verifying or most accurate so far with Florence's track?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

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All hail king UK?

[tolakram]

Is there any data on which model is verifying or most accurate so far with Florence's track?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

https://i.imgur.com/2Xvjpai.png

Does this mean the TVCN beat the NHC in terms of location accuracy? Is that typical?

Yes, because the NHC is purposely slow to change the track. Many times models can shift, only to shift back later. TVCN is simply a weighted blend.

[caneman]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

https://i.imgur.com/2Xvjpai.png

Does this mean the TVCN beat the NHC in terms of location accuracy? Is that typical?

Yes, because the NHC is purposely slow to change the track. Many times models can shift, only to shift back later. TVCN is simply a weighted blend.

AVNO IS GFS correct? Doesnt look like the Euro has done that well. If I'm ready the chart correctly

[Emmett_Brown]

Storm motion becomes much more difficult to predict when it involves a stall and/or change in direction. While Florence's motion has been pretty much W/NW its entire existence (with the exception of the W/SW late last week), handling stalls near the point of landfall due to changing steering currents is pretty complicated and prone to error. Models will struggle to get this right even at short timescales. The NHC is usually the most accurate in these types of situations.

[blp]

Is there any data on which model is verifying or most accurate so far with Florence's track?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

https://i.imgur.com/2Xvjpai.png

Am I reading this correctly the GFS is outperforming most of the models on this or is it the HWRF? Can't tell by the color of the blue.

[tolakram]

Is there any data on which model is verifying or most accurate so far with Florence's track?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

https://i.imgur.com/2Xvjpai.png

Am I reading this correctly the GFS is outperforming most of the models on this or is it the HWRF? Can't tell by the color of the blue.

Looks to me like some of the colors are duplicated so I'm hesitant to say for sure.

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

https://i.imgur.com/2Xvjpai.png

Am I reading this correctly the GFS is outperforming most of the models on this or is it the HWRF? Can't tell by the color of the blue.

Looks to me like some of the colors are duplicated so I'm hesitant to say for sure.

It appears to me that the legend goes in order with the graph. If that's the case then the Euro is outperforming most with the "NGX" coming in second. Not sure what the NGX is.

[RL3AO]

After days of long lines at gas stations and grocery stores being bought clean in the triangle area, seeing the euro show only 2.4 inches of rain in Raleigh is pretty funny.

[tomatkins]

Am I reading this correctly the GFS is outperforming most of the models on this or is it the HWRF? Can't tell by the color of the blue.

Looks to me like some of the colors are duplicated so I'm hesitant to say for sure.

It appears to me that the legend goes in order with the graph. If that's the case then the Euro is outperforming most with the "NGX" coming in second. Not sure what the NGX is.

I think you are reading this backwards. I think shorter is better.

But yo uare correct - the bars go in the order they are listed in the legend. So the first dark blue bar on the left is GFS and the second dark blue bar is the HWRF.

[syfr]

After days of long lines at gas stations and grocery stores being bought clean in the triangle area, seeing the euro show only 2.4 inches of rain in Raleigh is pretty funny.

Yes but it's a GOOD funny!

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is less threatening for GA and N FL than was the 0Z EPS due to the mean being further north. The trends at 12Z are mainly good for GA/N FL, especially Euro/EPS. Hopefully that trend will hold up. Way too early to tell for sure though.

Also, 12Z EPS doesn't have those crazy FL tracks that the 0Z EPS had.

[Steve]

Does this mean the TVCN beat the NHC in terms of location accuracy? Is that typical?

Yes, because the NHC is purposely slow to change the track. Many times models can shift, only to shift back later. TVCN is simply a weighted blend.

AVNO IS GFS correct? Doesnt look like the Euro has done that well. If I'm ready the chart correctly

You are. And it hasn't on a specific forecast track. But here is the European last Wednesday at 12z:


Here's last Thursday at 12z (7am CDT)


GFS, while overall not bad from 7 days out, had it much farther out to sea on Wednesday at 12z and hitting Long Island on its way out to sea on Thursday. Prior to that, EC showed strong ridging where the GFS had recurve written all over it for run after run. I even got in a few of those arguments with people who wouldn't budge. But when you've seen the model (and its predecessor) do the same thing for 20 years, you learn to get suspicious. So while the hourly forecasts may favor the GFS or any number of models, the EC got the pattern right.

[ScottNAtlanta]

After days of long lines at gas stations and grocery stores being bought clean in the triangle area, seeing the euro show only 2.4 inches of rain in Raleigh is pretty funny.

At least the ground in Ga isnt saturated already like up there. It would take more to flood here than in RDU

[capepoint]

Well there you have it...3 different answers. Lol.

If you want a fourth, it's high tide at Atlantic Beach bridge (Morehead City area) on Thur. at 11:36 AM AND 11:56 PM. Fri 12:27 PM. SAT 12:47AM and 122PM

And tides are already 1-2 feet above normal because of astronomical high tides.

[Powellrm]

(I'm sure this will get deleted) but, what is the ngx? I've never heard of it. Any pros out there familiar?