ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[sittingduck]

(I'm sure this will get deleted) but, what is the ngx? I've never heard of it. Any pros out there familiar?

I believe that is the NOGAPS Model

[FireRat]

This thing becomes weirder and weirder everytime with the forecast!! Good to see the triangle might get less rain than feared per the models, but would be very wary, it takes just a few training rain bands and we get walloped with much more than that. This is going to be such a bad, historic flood and wind even for our neighbors to the south and east. Be safe y'all

[Hurricane Andrew]

(I'm sure this will get deleted) but, what is the ngx? I've never heard of it. Any pros out there familiar?

I believe that is the NAVGEM/NOGAPS.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS is already onshore as of hour 42 (further NW than prior 3 GFS runs) , great news for those worrying about it staying offshore longer.

[LarryWx]

This will very likely not come back as far SW, if much SW at all, vs the prior GFS runs. And any SW drift will be over land.

[tallywx]

18z GFS coming back north. Spreads hurricane force wind gusts much deeper into NC. The story is still being written.

[Vdogg]

The 18Z GFS is already onshore as of hour 42 (further NW than prior 3 GFS runs) , great news for those worrying about it staying offshore longer.

This had to happen. The actual physical position of the storm is further north than forecast.

[NCBuckeye]

The 18Z GFS is already onshore as of hour 42 (further NW than prior 3 GFS runs) , great news for those worrying about it staying offshore longer.

24 hours of very slowly bobbling NW, W, SW, W later finds SC border. All that Triangle rain making a comeback.

[hurricaneCW]

The 18Z GFS is already onshore as of hour 42 (further NW than prior 3 GFS runs) , great news for those worrying about it staying offshore longer.

It's more like one trade-off for another. Less of a stall but a stronger LF and deeper inland flooding.

[MacTavish]

None of the models seem to depict inland surface winds very well. I mean the 18z GFS shows landfall at 949mb, but the northern eyewall over land is producing only 40-45kt winds

[Emmett_Brown]

It always seems like the Euro is on the left, and the GFS on the right. Today the storm traveled to the right a bit, so perhaps the GFS is performing better in the short term. Models all seem to have a similar idea, but still diverge on the details. Complicated setup.

[syfr]

It always seems like the Euro is on the left, and the GFS on the right. Today the storm traveled to the right a bit, so perhaps the GFS is performing better in the short term. Models all seem to have a similar idea, but still diverge on the details. Complicated setup.

And serious props to the NHC who has to make sense of all of this and come up with a forecast millions of people base life-changing decisions off of.

[dukeblue219]

None of the models seem to depict inland surface winds very well. I mean the 18z GFS shows landfall at 949mb, but the northern eyewall over land is producing only 40-45kt winds

http://i67.tinypic.com/o8az9k.png

That's not necessarily inaccurate... If the storm stalls offshore the overland winds will rapidly wind down. It won't sit around with the same wind radii it had over water.

[Raebie]

It always seems like the Euro is on the left, and the GFS on the right. Today the storm traveled to the right a bit, so perhaps the GFS is performing better in the short term. Models all seem to have a similar idea, but still diverge on the details. Complicated setup.

And serious props to the NHC who has to make sense of all of this and come up with a forecast millions of people base life-changing decisions off of.

Honestly at this point all they can say is everybody out of the pool.

[Blinhart]

I'm just hoping she doesn't come in any further north, then it will be very scary on the NE coast with that storm surge.

[MacTavish]

None of the models seem to depict inland surface winds very well. I mean the 18z GFS shows landfall at 949mb, but the northern eyewall over land is producing only 40-45kt winds

http://i67.tinypic.com/o8az9k.png

That's not necessarily inaccurate... If the storm stalls offshore the overland winds will rapidly wind down. It won't sit around with the same wind radii it had over water.

Well of course but not minimum TS force

[tallywx]

18z HWRF has shifted north too. Landfalls slightly north of Wilmington.

[plasticup]

None of the models seem to depict inland surface winds very well. I mean the 18z GFS shows landfall at 949mb, but the northern eyewall over land is producing only 40-45kt winds

http://i67.tinypic.com/o8az9k.png

Sounds right to me. Hurricanes don't do well over land. What is your concern about that?

[Ken711]

18z HWRF has shifted north too. Landfalls slightly north of Wilmington.

Morehead City to Orcacoke is my guess.

[MacTavish]

None of the models seem to depict inland surface winds very well. I mean the 18z GFS shows landfall at 949mb, but the northern eyewall over land is producing only 40-45kt winds

http://i67.tinypic.com/o8az9k.png

Sounds right to me. Hurricanes don't do well over land. What is your concern about that?

No real concern, I was just pointing it out.