ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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ATL: FLORENCE - Models
A thread for members of guidance. Be sure to keep the discussion in the main thread for the system.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:38 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: NATL: Invest 90L - Guidance
As a start, here is the recent 00Z EPS mean.
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L - Guidance
GFS showing a long-duration due north track over very warm water.
IMHO, intensity is underestimated.
Could be a problem for Ireland.
IMHO, intensity is underestimated.
Could be a problem for Ireland.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Interesting that two of the GFS ensemble members show this now getting blocked by a ridge and sent west. Long-range image of those two ensembles:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Also we have some GEPS ensembles showing the system getting blocked by a ridge and heading west. Long-range position:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
This ridge is looking less and less certain as time goes by.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
12Z GFS coming in weaker...
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
GFS has this reaching minimal hurricane status then weakening 60 hours out
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
12z GFS is much more reasonable given very marginal SST’s ahead. Best shot at major status is in a week or so once it reaches the warm central subtropics.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
The 12zgfs seems to stall or slow this considerably for a day or so between day 8 and 9 which makes me go this is close to not being a guaranteed recurve, let’s see what the ensembles say as that could be a game changer if the weakness isn’t as strong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
gatorcane wrote:Interesting that two of the GFS ensemble members show this now getting blocked by a ridge and sent west. Long-range image of those two ensembles:
https://s8.postimg.cc/6oaw0h28l/gfs-eme ... atl_58.png
Or even WSW for a time, while some are saying this is a guaranteed recurve, I’m not so sure it’s a guarantee but we have a lot of time to watch this whatever it decides to do
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
There a a few weaker ensembles of the 12zGEFS that go west after getting trapped under the ridge but the stronger members are still a recurve so the chances of a recurve are about 85% so that’s what I’m going to go with
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
12z Euro is a little bit stronger than past runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:gatorcane wrote:Interesting that two of the GFS ensemble members show this now getting blocked by a ridge and sent west. Long-range image of those two ensembles:
https://s8.postimg.cc/6oaw0h28l/gfs-eme ... atl_58.png
Or even WSW for a time, while some are saying this is a guaranteed recurve, I’m not so sure it’s a guarantee but we have a lot of time to watch this whatever it decides to do
Though I'd likely bet on an eventual Northwest motion leading to getting pulled up and into the westerlies.... I'd tend to agree that for reasons just mentioned in the forum Discussion thread, that a combination of delayed development and perhaps a somewhat more shallow system in the near term could have an outside chance of changing the timing enough where increasing 500 mb heights over the W. Atlantic and a departing trough to the north of the storm could have downstream impact in blocking further northward motion. I think this is doubtful but within the realm of possibility.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
The GFS ensembles are pondering the possibility of it not recurving.
Note these images from 06z and 18z today. The 12z didn't ponder the possibility.
I'm in Jacksonville, so I'm not exactly fond of a storm being off the coast like that heading westerly.
However, I know it is 300+ hours out, so anything can happen...but on the flip side, anything can happen.
Note these images from 06z and 18z today. The 12z didn't ponder the possibility.
I'm in Jacksonville, so I'm not exactly fond of a storm being off the coast like that heading westerly.
However, I know it is 300+ hours out, so anything can happen...but on the flip side, anything can happen.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
mlfreeman wrote:The GFS ensembles are pondering the possibility of it not recurving.
Note these images from 06z and 18z today. The 12z didn't ponder the possibility.
I'm in Jacksonville, so I'm not exactly fond of a storm being off the coast like that heading westerly.
However, I know it is 300+ hours out, so anything can happen...but on the flip side, anything can happen.
Please no...thank goodness it is 300hrs out, because Jax and Florida don't need another hurricane after Matthew and Irma. The odds are that future Florence will be a fish (besides the Cabo/Cape Verde's) per Euro and GFS and it'll be a beautiful hurricane to view from afar where it might be hit by a TUTT. However, still time to monitor for changes. Fingers crossed the ridge doesn't build back in.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
mlfreeman wrote:The GFS ensembles are pondering the possibility of it not recurving.
Note these images from 06z and 18z today. The 12z didn't ponder the possibility.
I'm in Jacksonville, so I'm not exactly fond of a storm being off the coast like that heading westerly.
However, I know it is 300+ hours out, so anything can happen...but on the flip side, anything can happen.
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but the date on these images are for Septmeber 15th. Wouldn't that be system after future TC #6 that looks to be off the SE coast?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
The 0zGFS has this system 10 degrees farther west and 3 degrees farther south at 10 days which means any west shifts could put Bermuda and Eastern Canada into the mix
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