ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[GTStorm]

12Z GFS is much more believable. No crazy cat-5 loops off Hatteras....MGC

so...is this the beginning of a last minute S / W trend for the other models, or is this just the GFS now coming in line with the others?

[Aric Dunn]

Now the models are starting to come to their senses.I had little doubt.. stil some west adjustments, I would imagine.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12Z FV3-GFS is coming in left of the previous run, showing landfall near Myrtle Beach.

[Aric Dunn]

FV3 shifts more west.. landfall easily into SC now.

the key thing is it turns west right at landfall if that turn happened even 6 hours earlier could be a central SC landfall.

[PavelGaborik10]

Is the crazy HWRF still showing Florence turning into an annular looking cane?

[tolakram]

12Z FV3-GFS

[Blinhart]

Is the crazy HWRF still showing Florence turning into an annular looking cane?

And to many of us it looks like she is trying real hard to do that.

[Ivanhater]

Storms turning west tend the be in a strengthening phase

[ronjon]

FV3 shifts more west.. landfall easily into SC now.

the key thing is it turns west right at landfall if that turn happened even 6 hours earlier could be a central SC landfall.

Yes big question now is SC now more under the gun. With last nights Euro trending more south and west, will we see southward adjustments on landfall position in upcoming forecasts.

[Raebie]

FV3 shifts more west.. landfall easily into SC now.

the key thing is it turns west right at landfall if that turn happened even 6 hours earlier could be a central SC landfall.

Yes big question now is SC now more under the gun. With last nights Euro trending more south and west, will we see southward adjustments on landfall position in upcoming forecasts.

Yeah, that is gonna be super bad for southern NC. The surge will go right up the Cape Fear river and Charlotte will get feet of rain. Hoping this is a fluke.

[Aric Dunn]

ukmet pretty much the same.

[MGC]

It could be possible for the models to trend south....but I doubt they get much further south than Myrtle Beach. Upper coast of SC very much in play.....MGC

[pgoss11]

ukmet pretty much the same.

Aric, Can you post the Ukmet run?

[toad strangler]

WOW, S shift on the two 12z GFS. There will be more wrinkles, she is still so far out.

[ronjon]

FV3 shifts more west.. landfall easily into SC now.

the key thing is it turns west right at landfall if that turn happened even 6 hours earlier could be a central SC landfall.

Yes big question now is SC now more under the gun. With last nights Euro trending more south and west, will we see southward adjustments on landfall position in upcoming forecasts.

As Aric said, if the west turn happens 6 hrs earlier, that could put Charleston SC in the path - it also seems apparent from the Euro and FV3 runs now that a possible flooding event may be in store for Atlanta and the north Georgia mtns later this weekend/early next week.

[toad strangler]

UKMET

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

im wonderig if she dips more before curving, are the waters warmer and deeper than the more shallow waters off NC coast? im not familiar with the depth and geography of the waters off that coastal region

[Aric Dunn]

im wonderig if she dips more before curving, are the waters warmer and deeper than the more shallow waters off NC coast? im not familiar with the depth and geography of the waters off that coastal region

well you have the gulfstream right there. so if it starts to stall it will definitely have more warm water than normal. but even that would begin to upwell with that amount of time.

[tolakram]

Euro 12Z Init. Please keep the discussion on models, we are deleting a lot of posts in here that stray off topic.

[tolakram]