ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#101 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:11 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:12z Euro Ensemble EPS

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12z GFS Ensemble GEFS

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Both are big shifts west compared to the ensembles from a couple days ago. I will really need to keep an eye on it.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#102 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:05 pm

The 0zGFS at 102hrs looking at the 500mb steering is very close to a no recurve scenario but it all depends on the ridge
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#103 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:11 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The 0zGFS at 102hrs looking at the 500mb steering is very close to a no recurve scenario but it all depends on the ridge

could be wrong, but i feel that the gfs breaks the ridge down a bit too quickly and also turns the system into the ridge a bit too quickly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#104 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:16 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:The 0zGFS at 102hrs looking at the 500mb steering is very close to a no recurve scenario but it all depends on the ridge

could be wrong, but i feel that the gfs breaks the ridge down a bit too quickly and also turns the system into the ridge a bit too quickly.

It’s 3 main biases of the GFS breaking down ridges too quickly, deepening troughs too much and in some cases having a system move through the ridge
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#105 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:38 am

ECMWF 00z back to showing a weaker Florence in the medium-long range forecast, which has resulted in a shallower steering current and less latitude:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#106 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:58 am

chaser1 wrote:Boy, at least for the time being it's really gonna be an ebb and flow game of inches. So much dependent on how model run after run projection of the fluctuation of N.W. Atlantic mid level heights ultimately plays out. Timing really is everything as we watch model runs depicting each fairly quick moving short wave within the broader picture of a predominantly progressive zonal pattern over the Eastern CONUS. During so many past years we'd seem to have a long wave pattern that largely protected the Eastern Seaboard with each short wave trough that would drop into place there. Ah yes such were the Ninel Conde days.....


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Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#107 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:58 am

00z ECMWF show Florence slowing down in response to the passing trough, but the full connection cannot be made. The result is similar to last night's ECMWF run, but a bit more north:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#108 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:01 am

Euro says Recurve not certain

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#109 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:34 am

:uarrow: Emily 1993/Felix 1995? Or would it end up plowing into the Carolinas with that setup?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#110 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:08 am

ECMWF ensembles trend over past 7 runs:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#111 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:13 am

UKMET also has Florence weakening and a much more westward track:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#112 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:19 am

So could be a possible Carolina or New England storm.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#113 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:55 am

USTropics wrote:UKMET also has Florence weakening and a much more westward track:

Image


That’s a very interesting track right there. Do you have the 500mb set up of the UKIE?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#114 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:01 am

Latest plots. Look at all of the Euro ensembles sending this west:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#115 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:13 am

USTropics wrote:UKMET also has Florence weakening and a much more westward track:

Image


and Gordon into Central Texas Coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#116 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:31 am

Hammy wrote::uarrow: Emily 1993/Felix 1995? Or would it end up plowing into the Carolinas with that setup?


There's nothing but ridging over the US at that point, only route would be into the Carolinas.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#117 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:37 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Hammy wrote::uarrow: Emily 1993/Felix 1995? Or would it end up plowing into the Carolinas with that setup?


There's nothing but ridging over the US at that point, only route would be into the Carolinas.



Well taking that 240 map verbatim Florence could be pushed right into extreme SC and even GA
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#118 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:43 am

:uarrow: That's plausible for sure. It would all depend on the strength of the Bermuda ridge. It may be possible the ridge could be very strong to push Florence even west/southwest by that timeframe shown above. Definitely will have to monitor closely next week how the synoptics evolves.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#119 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:11 am

Florence is struggling this morning, which is in line with what the ECMWF/UKMET is predicting. The GFS actually shows strengthening throughout the next 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#120 Postby tpinnola » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:35 am

00z Euro run has a weak storm missing the Bermuda ridge and making a bee-line for the Carolinas. Maybe the ridge forming across the CON US will make it there in time to save the day?

Concerning trend non-the-less. Timing & strength of storm is everything.

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