ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#121 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:09 am

12z GFS continues to have a horrible handle on the future intensity of Florence, as it now shows the system reaching hurricane status in 30 hours over 26C SSTs and 0 TCHP. Not going to happen; it'll probably stay even around 45-60mph throughout the next five days, as per the NHC forecast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#122 Postby Visioen » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:10 am

tpinnola wrote:00z Euro run has a weak storm missing the Bermuda ridge and making a bee-line for the Carolinas. Maybe the ridge forming across the CON US will make it there in time to save the day?

I think you mean trough :P
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#123 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:12 am

12z GFS now with a stronger ridge, pushing Florence further south and west. TAU 138, ridge is building
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#124 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:26 am

The latest 12z UKMET hot off the press is making things a bit interesting...

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#125 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:35 am

The 12z Canadian had a massive West shift and wnds up dangerously close the the NC coast

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#126 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:44 am

12z GFS has a cat 4 over my house. :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#127 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:55 am

Although it's highly unlikely that this storm will reach the US, it's clearly going to get a lot further west than initially forecast.

I could see her getting to Bermuda or maybe pull a Bill. I'm excited because we should finally get some great swells out of this on the east coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#128 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Kazmit wrote:12z GFS has a cat 4 over my house. :eek:

Image

The inner core passes just to the east of Bermuda on this run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#129 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:00 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:Although it's highly unlikely that this storm will reach the US, it's clearly going to get a lot further west than initially forecast.

I could see her getting to Bermuda or maybe pull a Bill. I'm excited because we should finally get some great swells out of this on the east coast.

I am also very excited for the swells- I've been waiting all summer for something. Let's just hope that's the only impact Florence has.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#130 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:09 pm

The ECMWF is well south of the GFS with a shallower cyclone out through 72 hours so far.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#131 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:15 pm

96 hours barely has a TC
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#132 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:17 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:96 hours barely has a TC


Yep shallower which may mean even more west. Ridge is building over the East coast of the US and Western Atlantic:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#133 Postby plasticup » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:96 hours barely has a TC


Yep shallower which may mean even more west. Ridge is building over the East coast of the US and Western Atlantic:

Image
Image

Thats a CONUS strike for sure. And a pattern that could drive the next few waves into the continent too. This setup was an outlier 3-4 days ago but more and more models are showing it. Will be interesting to see if it verifies.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#134 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:43 pm

Euro turning this west at 192 hours:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#135 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:44 pm

gatorcane wrote:Euro turning this west at 192 hours:

Image


Looks like a Georgia/Carolinas hit right there.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#136 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:52 pm

Euro 216 hours. Florence heading towards US coastline:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#137 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:54 pm

12Z Euro is much more west this run. Dangerously close to US east coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#138 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:56 pm

Euro looks really close to the Canadian position at hr 216

edit and 240 both near Outer Banks
Last edited by bamajammer4eva on Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#139 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:57 pm

Euro 240 hours. When will these west shifts stop?

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#140 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:58 pm

Yeesh that is way too close for comfort. Canadian hit potienitally?
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