ATL: FLORENCE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1398
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#21 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:56 pm

Quite the shift...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6906
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#22 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:59 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Quite the shift...

Image


May have to monitor this system, any shift west could put people in the way like Eastern Canada but am not willing to go farther west yet
0 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1398
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#23 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:03 am

full run

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1646
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda (temporarily in NE US)

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#24 Postby Kazmit » Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:19 am

Time to start watching this. This latest run puts future Florence right on my doorstep. :eek:
0 likes   
Florence 2006, Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#25 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:03 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Quite the shift...

Image


May have to monitor this system, any shift west could put people in the way like Eastern Canada but am not willing to go farther west yet

GFS has it within 4 degrees of Bermuda, and the last Westward shift was 6 degrees, so well within striking distance. No one was ignoring this system based on 10-day steering guidance though - that would be silly.
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#26 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:09 am

06z GFS looks to be jogging back east again. Only 136 hours out so far but it's a slower storm and a deeper trough. That's good news for Bermuda
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 15685
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#27 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:53 am

Curving back west, but this is too far out, GFS skill at this range is really bad.

I'm also noticing both models are trending less intense for both Atlantic AND EPAC, which seems kind of suspicious.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12928
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#28 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:11 am

I am not surprised by the westward shift of the models, a weaker system and strong Atlantic ridging this year would mean a more westward track, how far west is still in the air. IMO.
1 likes   

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#29 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 am

06z GFS shows an earlier recurve, but then has the ridge building back in and deflecting the system westward again at ~32N.
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3715
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#30 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:51 am

not sure how good is navgem got arl-6 moving more west high building up here link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=210
0 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1177
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: S FL, USA → N Europe

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#31 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:20 am

The 00Z EPS mean has shifted considerably farther W (and even more intense) in the long range, indicating a greater threat to Bermuda.
0 likes   
Formerly CapeVerdeWave/MiamiensisWx | Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005 | Gordon ‘94, Irene ‘99, Frances ‘04, Wilma ‘05, Irma ‘17 | March ‘94 | TSHTropical • Extratropical
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#32 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:26 am

Shell Mound wrote:The 00Z EPS mean has shifted considerably farther W (and even more intense) in the long range, indicating a greater threat to Bermuda.

The 12Z GFS is shifting westward as well, particularly after 120 hours. It's another 4-6 degrees of movement, and the ridge looks higher.
1 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1884
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#33 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:51 am

12z GFS is a pretty straightforward recurve with little drama.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22472
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#34 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:33 pm

We are talking long-range but once again there are some GFS ensembles bringing this all the way west getting blocked by a ridge. Check out the circle east of Florida heading west. Chances appear low, but I would prefer to see no GFS ensembles.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6297
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#35 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:37 pm

Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121267
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#36 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:57 pm

SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.


It picks up intensity as it recurves.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1658
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#37 Postby otowntiger » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:04 pm

SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
It doesnt seem to do anything with anything out there now. wow. that's pretty remarkable at how utterly quiet that run is. Make me wonder what's up.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6906
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#38 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.

Yes but it’s been inching west with each run so Bermuda can’t rule out significant impacts yet or even eastern Canada but we’ll have to see if this gets trapped by the ridge or is up and out, I can envision 4 different scenarios

1. Most likely track out to sea around 50w

2. A track similar to Fabian 2003

3. A track similar to Isabel 2003

4. A track similar to Andrew 1992

None of these scenarios can be taken off the table until sometime next week as the models are showing in their ensembles all the above scenarios
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22472
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#39 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:15 pm

Blocked on 12Z Euro???

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 902
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#40 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:18 pm

otowntiger wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
It doesnt seem to do anything with anything out there now. wow. that's pretty remarkable at how utterly quiet that run is. Make me wonder what's up.


??? There are two likely hurricanes and potentially 4 TC’s on that run.
1 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests