ATL: FLORENCE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1297
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#41 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:20 pm

otowntiger wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
It doesnt seem to do anything with anything out there now. wow. that's pretty remarkable at how utterly quiet that run is. Make me wonder what's up.


? The 12z ECMWF is one of the more active runs I've seen this season. 06L stays weak; two systems behind 06L, one of which becomes a hurricane as it moves west, and a TD in the GOMEX by day five.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1552
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#42 Postby otowntiger » Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:We are talking long-range but once again there are some GFS ensembles bringing this all the way west getting blocked by a ridge. Check out the circle east of Florida heading west. Chances appear low, but I would prefer to see no GFS ensembles.

Image
This is the image I was referring to when I said it looks like its showing nothing. I realize now that there are other things potentially coming behind it. Just nothing other than that little weak circle well east of the Bahamas shown here. .
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6558
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#43 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:02 pm

The 18zGFS seems to at the 500 level show the weakness closing up at 96 hrs, the trend with Thant is not a good one but we’ll have to see
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6558
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#44 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:09 pm

Could it be that the operational GFS ends up being one of the farthest east of all the ensembles like 12z
0 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1712
Age: 31
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#45 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:06 am

The ECMWF has gone way westward in the 00z run:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3252
Age: 59
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#46 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:09 am

Tonight's EURO 0Z run is Epic and I don't mean in a good way. Big Westward shift for Florence. At least at 216 hr., the storm is looking like it's practically locked into a CONUS landfall.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1712
Age: 31
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#47 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:16 am

240 hours out, but this would not be a good setup for recurve:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3367
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#48 Postby drezee » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:32 am

chaser1 wrote:Tonight's EURO 0Z run is Epic and I don't mean in a good way. Big Westward shift for FloAndrew. At least at 216 hr., the storm is looking like it's practically locked into a CONUS landfall.

So...let's talk about what the 240hr 500mb pattern shows, I could careless about the surface reflections this far out. What it shows is a blocking pattern showing up. That ridge will be in place for days. That pattern should be very scary to meteorologists. Basically says thrown anything in there. It makes it home. It doesn't have to be #6. That is an almost guaranteed hit pattern for at least a week. It is pretty sick actually. You scan see the start of a trough split on the Pac NW. Pattern turns SW to NE over the ridge from there. The ridge would not be transient. Almost an omega might setup. Wow...The US would need to become Neo and dodge bullets. I'll post on the ensembles later...
2 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3367
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#49 Postby drezee » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:08 am

Euro 240 ensembles say sustained ridge...hard to get recurve west of 65W. No one wants what is being shown...you could get multiple hits to the coast. In other words, we would want the euro to be very very wrong...
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3565
Age: 18
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#50 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:05 am

And again.... This one shows intensity

Image
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11307
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#51 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:02 am

Big shift west on the 06z GFS:

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11307
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#52 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:03 am

06z GFS, hours 0-198:

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 555
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#53 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:49 am

A large number of 00Z EPS ensemble members now take Florence to ~20°N 60°W on a threatening track/pattern for Bahamas, FL, and GA/Carolinas:
 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1035848708640989186


0 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005
The views herein are the author's alone. Please defer to the N.H.C./N.W.S. for official information.

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 555
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm

ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#54 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:06 am

Both the 00Z operational ECMWF and the 00Z EPS ensemble mean have trended toward a stronger PV streamer (TUTT) over the western MDR by day six (120 hours). Given that Florence is likely to be weaker in the short term than originally forecast, the interaction with the TUTT may be sufficient to destroy the circulation and thus reduce any threat to the U.S. So strong vertical wind shear may be the factor that could prevent a (strong) TC landfall on the U.S. East Coast, given the otherwise favourable steering pattern that is present and expected to persist. There is a lot of volatility on recent EC/EPS runs in regard to the positioning and amplitude of large-scale features in the medium to long range, so any forecast at this stage is likely to be rather premature, highly mutable, and subject to large errors, so it should be labeled "low confidence."

Note that a large number of 00Z EPS ensemble members actually kill Florence by days six or seven (144 hours), due to the very TUTT that I have mentioned:

Image
1 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005
The views herein are the author's alone. Please defer to the N.H.C./N.W.S. for official information.

mlfreeman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:48 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#55 Postby mlfreeman » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:07 am

I hope this is just the windshield wiper motor starting up.
Shell Mound wrote:A large number of 00Z EPS ensemble members now take Florence to ~20°N 60°W on a threatening track/pattern for Bahamas, FL, and GA/Carolinas:
0 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1297
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#56 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:23 am

Wow, I almost spit out my coffee looking at the 00z ECMWF. Just goes to show how many options are on the table right now.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11481
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#57 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:58 am

Like I mentioned yesterday morning I am not surprised that the models keep trending westward, last night's Euro ensembles are getting too close for comfort.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118452
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:05 am

:uarrow: Yikes,that one ensemble member. :eek:
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
toad strangler
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1471
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#59 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:08 am

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: Yikes,that one ensemble member. :eek:


? Which one
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2481
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#60 Postby chris_fit » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:15 am

Definitely was not expecting these W shifts, especially the Euro run overnight - hopefully just a one off
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests