ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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GTStorm
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4021 Postby GTStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:57 pm

Image

For the few still interested...0Z early guidance out, not much different.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4022 Postby syfr » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:10 pm

Still very interested. Thanks for the post. It does appear NHC is locked in.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4023 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:46 pm

Laminar wrote:Would you say to expect it somewhat further left due to the right bias of the GFS? Would that put Charleston back into play?


Sorry, I don't know. NHC track is a blend and probably correct.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4024 Postby TxDisasterHorn » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:25 pm

GTStorm wrote:https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

For the few still interested...0Z early guidance out, not much different.

Looks like DC is coming back in play on the tail end of this thing.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4025 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:01 pm

Interesting bit from the 11pm NHC forecast discussion:

"It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble still take Florence on a more southern track,
straddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland.
While that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be
ruled out as a possibility."
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4026 Postby edu2703 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:31 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4027 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:23 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4028 Postby syfr » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:33 am

Looks like it's pulling in some big bands of dry air.

Gusty and rainy here SE of Raleigh.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4029 Postby dspguy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:06 pm

The models are all saying the SW dip is coming. So far, the storm has been pretty consistent on a westward path. It "lost" only 0.2 degrees latitude so far over about 1.0 degree latitude since its northernmost point. I suppose we'll see overnight if it makes that dip SW. Doesn't look like the eye is going to get back over the water unless it takes a SSW path now.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4030 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:15 am

Multiple models now showing the remnants of Florence rotating around, or at least attempting to rotate around, the subtropical high to the east and coming back around to the west.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4031 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:47 am

AdamFirst wrote:Multiple models now showing the remnants of Florence rotating around, or at least attempting to rotate around, the subtropical high to the east and coming back around to the west.

I’m sorry to say we may be dealing with this in early October if models are right on the loop around, just when Florence couldn’t be more of a headache to forecast
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4032 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:27 pm

Latest run of the EURO shows a piece breaking off of Florence in its extratropical transition. A weak low off the coast of the Carolinas again starting from hour 120 to the end of the run. Would that be considered still Florence or a new system in general?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4033 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:41 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Latest run of the EURO shows a piece breaking off of Florence in its extratropical transition. A weak low off the coast of the Carolinas again starting from hour 120 to the end of the run. Would that be considered still Florence or a new system in general?


I don't think NHC is in the habit of naming storms depicted in future model runs, so your question is impossible to answer.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4034 Postby aperson » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:43 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Latest run of the EURO shows a piece breaking off of Florence in its extratropical transition. A weak low off the coast of the Carolinas again starting from hour 120 to the end of the run. Would that be considered still Florence or a new system in general?


If the system were to regenerate it depends on whether it maintains an LLC or degrades into an open wave.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4035 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:11 pm

aperson wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Latest run of the EURO shows a piece breaking off of Florence in its extratropical transition. A weak low off the coast of the Carolinas again starting from hour 120 to the end of the run. Would that be considered still Florence or a new system in general?


If the system were to regenerate it depends on whether it maintains an LLC or degrades into an open wave.

I believe if it’s the same energy the name is retained, one has to remember that Ivan did this exact same thing, like said before we may be dealing with Florence into the first of October
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4036 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:37 pm

Interesting that the GFS has trended toward the Euro as far as Florence remnants circling back around. The GFS has the remnants just east of the Bahamas heading west albeit weakening. Upper level conditions looks conducive in the Bahamas though:

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4037 Postby mlfreeman » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:18 pm

:uarrow:
I'm skeptical.
Models showed Matthew making a loop and coming back to smack the Space Center around, but that didn't come close to happening at all.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4038 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:43 pm

mlfreeman wrote::uarrow:
I'm skeptical.
Models showed Matthew making a loop and coming back to smack the Space Center around, but that didn't come close to happening at all.

i got feeling will up far Atlantic not loop
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4039 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:15 am

aperson wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Latest run of the EURO shows a piece breaking off of Florence in its extratropical transition. A weak low off the coast of the Carolinas again starting from hour 120 to the end of the run. Would that be considered still Florence or a new system in general?


If the system were to regenerate it depends on whether it maintains an LLC or degrades into an open wave.


It's supposed to maintain an LLC, albeit probably as an extratropical cyclone. It would be a matter of whether it can transition back to tropical, but if the energy moves to a new low center?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4040 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:17 am

I don't know if anyone is paying attention to the 12z GFS but at 78 hours it revives the remnants of Florence NE of Bermuda and at 144 hours it has it moving SW East of Bermuda. :double:
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