ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4041 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:25 am

LOL, 12z GFS regenerates Florence into a 974 mb hurricane by hour 186.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4042 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:42 am

Someone should probably take the Ivan playbook away from Florence before she gets any more ideas
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4043 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:43 pm

12z models Image

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4044 Postby TxDisasterHorn » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:55 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:12z models https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180917/fc7173542a31c252e3d7866c5fd10cf2.gif

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Not sure I've seen a more indecisive hurricane in my life.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4045 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:20 pm

The most legitimately spaghetti looking of spaghetti plots
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4046 Postby OiOya » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:18 pm

Florence can't even stay in the box smh
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4047 Postby EasyTiger » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:50 pm

Someone should probably take the Ivan playbook away from Florence before she gets any more ideas


Just a subtle reminder as to how epic the 2004-2005 season was for the CONUS
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4048 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:12 pm

18z GFS ensemble drops the idea of keeping Florence looping around of the east coast... all members take her up and out toward the frigid N Atlantic... the "true" hurricane graveyard...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4049 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:53 am

I don't think this is directly associated with Florence (though it does seem to come from the same frontal boundary), but all of the global models are suggesting that a new warm core (perhaps subtropical) low may develop along this boundary in about five days over the central Atlantic in the "2018 MDR" - around the same place Debby, Ernesto and Joyce formed. I'm not sure how NHC would handle this if it developed (it might be Kirk), but if they were to assign it the name Florence, we could be looking at one of the strangest and longest lived tracks in history.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4050 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:32 pm

Honestly I think it'd take a long look at long spanning loops to determine how much of the vorticity stayed intact and even then it'd be a subjective call; an Ivan vs TD10/12 sort of thing. Clearly some of the energy involved will involve Florence's remnants in some way, but if absorbed into a linear boundary and a new area develops along it later, one could make the case for Kirk. Ivan's low level remnants as weak as they were could be easily tracked, at least.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4051 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:11 pm

18z GFS regenerates Florence into a 971mb storm in the North-Central Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4052 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:48 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS regenerates Florence into a 971mb storm in the North-Central Atlantic.


Heading W or WNW:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4053 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:56 pm

:uarrow:

If this ends up developing, and keeps the name Florence, this would indeed be a long lived ace machine. Florence formed in early September, so it would rank up there with the long lived storms in history. Or, it might just end up being named Kirk, and not be that special.
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4054 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:00 pm

If Ivan kept its name, then surely Florence would too.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4055 Postby MrJames » Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:10 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS regenerates Florence into a 971mb storm in the North-Central Atlantic.


Is that the same system? Looks like Flo is NE of the system that develops.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4056 Postby MrStormX » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:17 pm

The 0z CMC Redevelops Florence, and sends it right back for a second landfall in Wilmington, where it stalls yet again.



Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4057 Postby MrStormX » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:22 pm

I just checked the UKMET panels, and it too redevelops a break away piece of Florence into a very weak tropical system, and then sends that system back to the Carolina coastline echoing the CMC.

The 0z GFS, sends some moisture back to the Carolina's, but not an organized system.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4058 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:12 am

It looks like Florence has a baby on the GFS and sends it to North Carolina, while Florence itself gets trapped in the Central Atlantic and retrogrades and threatens Bermuda and here’s the thing that small low that detaches from it would probably get the name Kirk if it develops or if the MDR disturbance develops first that little system if it develops could be Leslie
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4059 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:15 am

MrStormX wrote:The 0z CMC Redevelops Florence, and sends it right back for a second landfall in Wilmington, where it stalls yet again.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018091900/gem_mslp_pcpn_atl_29.png

That’s not Florence, that’s Florence’s baby, Florence is the system at 50W 28N on that map
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4060 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:13 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
MrStormX wrote:The 0z CMC Redevelops Florence, and sends it right back for a second landfall in Wilmington, where it stalls yet again.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018091900/gem_mslp_pcpn_atl_29.png

That’s not Florence, that’s Florence’s baby, Florence is the system at 50W 28N on that map


stormcentral, post: 111337, member: 329 wrote:Models stall florence remnants near Bermuda or southward for a week


A portion of the remnants of Flo (Flo’s baby?) continue to show up on all models moving SE toward Bermuda today before making a clockwise turn back to westerly this weekend as it becomes positioned below a 200 mb high that moves offshore in the W Atlantic tomorrow and sticks around near Bermuda into early next week. This disturbance then approaches the SE US coast Mon before either recurving just offshore or coming into the coast by Tue. This general scenario has been showing up on model consensus for many days now only as a weak system. Still, no model at this time brings it in as more than a trough that ups shower activity. So, conditions aren’t expected to be favorable tropically. However, shear doesn’t appear to be strong as there are no westerlies nearby due to this strong 200 mb Bermuda high to the north of Flo’s baby keeping the westerlies away for the next 4-5 days and instead providing very high level easterlies. Also, SSTs off the SE coast are still very warm (midsummer warmth of 29-30C). So, this will probably get some attention at the BBs over the weekend whether or not warranted.
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