ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#61 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:39 am

The left (west) shifts continue with the latest 12Z guidance just in:

Image

Compare to 06Z guidance:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#62 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:55 am

Here are the SFWMD plots with ensembles. Indeed much more doubt on recurvature:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#63 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:00 am

Michael Ventrice isn’t buying the west shifts just yet.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1035889489506430978


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#64 Postby Highteeld » Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:30 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Michael Ventrice isn’t buying the west shifts just yet.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1035889489506430978



Yeah, his reasoning seems pretty solid to me. I was pretty surprised to see this output myself:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#65 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:35 am

Will need to see some consistency from the ECMWF, otherwise this run is an outlier. Both the Caribbean wave and Florence had significantly different solutions.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#66 Postby tpinnola » Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:49 am

240 hours out on the 6Z GFS run compared with the 2 runs prior:

Image

I'm not an expert by any means and I understand all the uncertainty with forecast models (especially this far out) but thought this was interesting.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#67 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:02 am

tpinnola wrote:240 hours out on the 6Z GFS run compared with the 2 runs prior:

Image

I'm not an expert by any means and I understand all the uncertainty with forecast models (especially this far out) but thought this was interesting.

Similar situation to Irma. We don’t know where this is going, but somebody might get whacked when this is all over.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#68 Postby plasticup » Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:19 am

Image

Well this certainly has my attention. Cat 4/5 only 150 miles offshore...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#69 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:22 am

plasticup wrote:Image

Well this certainly has my attention. Cat 4/5 only 150 miles offshore...

I would disregard the very low pressure readings in the GFS in the subtropics. GFS struggles with ocean coupling. I would add about 30-40 mb in this case.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#70 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:32 am

:uarrow: Strong system @30N/60W very likely a recurve or possible Bermuda/Mid Atlantic... Caribbean, Florida, and GOM usually out of picture at that point...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#71 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:36 am

plasticup wrote:Image

Well this certainly has my attention. Cat 4/5 only 150 miles offshore...


Not to temper your enthusiasm but I'd guess this long long range forecast plot to place the storm closer to about 225 miles from your home
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#72 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:17 am

Since the incoming 12Z GFS is even farther SW vs. earlier runs (especially 00Z), I would also expect the 12Z ECMWF to either hold fast or even shift farther SW.

Notably, the 12Z GFS is stronger with Florence in the short term but weaker in the medium to long term, owing to future interaction with the strong TUTT.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#73 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:18 am

Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Strong system @30N/60W very likely a recurve or possible Bermuda/Mid Atlantic... Caribbean, Florida, and GOM usually out of picture at that point...


Well the strong ridge that the 12z GFS was showing early on is melting away at 150 hours while slowing the N movement of Florence.


Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#74 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:21 am

Looks to me the 12z GFS is showing a much stronger system than forecasted through 5 days, which means it feels a weakness more and, subsequently, recurves. The GFS has a hurricane by Monday. I admit this is possible considering the current organization of Florence; the ECMWF is notorious for getting that wrong.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#75 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:21 am

Looks like a wnw bend at 156 hrs on the 12zgfs
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#76 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:26 am

Ridge erodes further at 168 hours and looks like she feels it with a near due N nudge

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#77 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:26 am

The 12zgfs shifted back east this run, let’s see what the ensembles and Euro show
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#78 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:27 am

Yup, due N now through 180. GFS erodes the ridge.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#79 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:30 am

GFS has constantly been eroding the ridge allowing an obvious path for Florence to escape. The Euro at 00z eroded the ridge too but quickly built in a stout ridge to replace from the West. GFS doesn't even remotely do that.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#80 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:35 am

toad strangler wrote:GFS has constantly been eroding the ridge allowing an obvious path for Florence to escape. The Euro at 00z eroded the ridge too but quickly built in a stout ridge to replace from the West. GFS doesn't even remotely do that.

The GFS bias is to break down ridges too quickly and overdoes troughs so maybe the Euro is on to something
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