CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

[EquusStorm]

Am definitely not so confident it's continuing the weakening trend, kinda confirmed by no decrease at the latest advisory. Not super cold tops but symmetrical and seemingly healthy with an even better looking eye; looks a lot better than it did earlier today, actually. Fwiw, has risen a bit to a 5.4. The SST gradient east of Hawaii has always seemed a lil weird to me.

[Ntxw]

Much more symmetrical now. Looks like a major again to me.

[Ntxw]

Lots of talk about Florence and the mainland. Olivia maybe has other plans for Hawaii. Still a long way out though beyond 5 days. A hit from the East or Northeast is a lot tougher than from the south. This would be the 4th Hurricane to come within vicinity/nearby of Hawaii this season alone. (Hector, Lane, Norman)

[Kingarabian]

Lots of talk about Florence and the mainland. Olivia maybe has other plans for Hawaii. Still a long way out though beyond 5 days. A hit from the East or Northeast is a lot tougher than from the south. This would be the 4th Hurricane to come within vicinity/nearby of Hawaii this season alone. (Hector, Lane, Norman)

[img]https://images2.imgbox.com/48/4d/je0JAN8C_o.gif[/mg]

Yup, this thread will become active in due time.

[Kingarabian]

ADT CI is back up to 5.4, closing in on 5.5. Supports a major hurricane classification.

[Ntxw]

ADT CI is back up to 5.4, closing in on 5.5. Supports a major hurricane classification.

What are the odds it loses banding and goes annular with a big eye? Cooler SSTs and drier environment would be interesting if she can.

[Hurricaneman]

ADT CI is back up to 5.4, closing in on 5.5. Supports a major hurricane classification.

What are the odds it loses banding and goes annular with a big eye?

Not sure this will go annular but could be a threat to Hawaii

[EquusStorm]

Yeah this has clearly significantly recovered from being a low-end C2. I kinda doubt they'd do a special update to change anything before the next advisory cycle, being in the Epac and a week from affecting Hawaii, but I'm going to go to bed confident this is a 3 again for sure.

[Kingarabian]

ADT CI is back up to 5.4, closing in on 5.5. Supports a major hurricane classification.

What are the odds it loses banding and goes annular with a big eye? Cooler SSTs and drier environment would be interesting if she can.

[img]https://images2.imgbox.com/05/ba/5uPaljot_o.jpg[/mg]

Will need to be closely monitored in case it becomes annular. Olivia becoming annular within the next 48 hours could be a worst case scenario in case it takes one of the modeled out tracks.

I would say theres a good chance it becomes annular if it loses that sprawling band to the S/SE. It seems as soon as these EPAC systems hit dry air and loiter around the present SST gradient, they shrink and become annular.

A hurricane transitioning and becoming annular is so hard to predict. If it wasn't for that large feeder band that it developed within the last few hours, it's current structure would certainly fit the bill.

[Yellow Evan]

Classic EPAC re-intensification going on as we’ve seen this play out several times this seaso. Likely to sustain a similar intensity until shear kicks in.

[EquusStorm]

The moment the EPac leaves the spotlight with Florence and Gordon developing, it starts to show off to garner attention again. And it's quite a show, honestly. The weakening flag is quite understandably off now with Olivia's ADT; easily 95kt (and probably 100kt) at the next advisory.

[Chris90]

I imagine it must be really frustrating to be a specialist at the NHC this season. All these storms just want to defy forecasts.
Next spring they should put in a request to retire all the names used this season citing "extreme forecasting frustration."
Just like, listen, we never want to work with a storm with one of these names ever again.

[Yellow Evan]

06/0600 UTC 17.9N 125.2W T4.5/4.5 OLIVIA -- East Pacific

[1900hurricane]

SATCON is running a little higher than the operational estimates, about 95 kt.

[Kingarabian]

00z UK-ENS:

[bob rulz]

It certainly looks to be on a strengthening trend tonight.

[Kingarabian]

It certainly looks to be on a strengthening trend tonight.

Yes, still intensifying no doubt:

Hope the NHC ignores that SAB estimate.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2018 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 17:59:23 N Lon : 125:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 959.1mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.7 5.7

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018

The cloud tops surrounding Olivia's 25 n mi diameter eye have cooled
somewhat over the past several hours, indicative of a little
strengthening. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, which
is a blend of lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective
SATCON and ADT estimates. Olivia will soon be moving over somewhat
cooler SSTs and into a drier mid-level air mass. This should lead
to gradual weakening over the next few days. The official intensity
forecast is very close to the simple and corrected intensity
consensus models, IVCN and HCCA. Olivia has a fairly large eye
with limited banding features, but the numerical guidance indicates
a low likelihood that the system could become an annular hurricane.
Nonetheless, if that transition were to occur, Olivia would likely
maintain a higher intensity for the next few days than indicated
here.

No significant changes have been made to the NHC track prediction
or forecast reasoning. Olivia continues moving west-northwestward
or 285/12 kt. A well-defined deep-layer ridge should remain in
place to the north of the hurricane for the next several days, and
this ridge is expected to build westward during the forecast
period. As a result, Olivia should gradually turn from its
west-northwestward heading to a westward course by the weekend.
The track guidance models remain in excellent agreement on this
scenario. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and the latest ECMWF prediction. This is essentially an
update of the previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 18.1N 125.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[EquusStorm]

Uh... yeah. If this is just 90kt (lower than the two other rather ragged looking hurricanes active, neither of which has a clear open eye) then I'm the prince of some random eastern European country and I expect an apology and a more reasonable intensity estimate by 11am Eastern. But what do I know