ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Frank P]

GFS is weaker but basic same track give or take a few miles, quite underwhelming all in all...

[MississippiWx]

GFS continues with its back and forth ways on strength. 12z came in with another weak run. Personally, I believe it's difficult to look at visible satellite imagery, and not believe this is coming together pretty fast. It is fairly small, so it could be susceptible to rapid development. That also makes it susceptible to being torn apart by shear if it makes a wrong move.

Have to wonder if a PTC tag will be placed on this soon due to its proximity to the Bahamas and Florida.

[SoupBone]

GFS continues with its back and forth ways on strength. 12z came in with another weak run. Personally, I believe it's difficult to look at visible satellite imagery, and not believe this is coming together pretty fast. It is fairly small, so it could be susceptible to rapid development. That also makes it susceptible to being torn apart by shear if it makes a wrong move.

Have to wonder if a PTC tag will be placed on this soon due to its proximity to the Bahamas and Florida.

Which is why I keep commenting on the existing shear in the Eastern GoM, which has been steadily increasing. It's supposed to move in tandem with 91L, but so far it hasn't really budged. Is that what the GFS is picking up on?

[JarrodB]

It does not matter if it is named or classified as a PTC before impacting Florida. An afternoon thunderstorm in Florida can be more powerful(in a small area) than a weak tropical storm. I have experienced 50kt+ winds while boating countless times as a result of an afternoon thunderstorm.

Classifying unnecessarily this will only cause hype and scare tourists away. However I do feel that coastal Louisiana and Mississippi need to watch this closely because of the RI potential once this makes it to the gulf.

[Shell Mound]

GFS continues with its back and forth ways on strength. 12z came in with another weak run. Personally, I believe it's difficult to look at visible satellite imagery, and not believe this is coming together pretty fast. It is fairly small, so it could be susceptible to rapid development. That also makes it susceptible to being torn apart by shear if it makes a wrong move.

Have to wonder if a PTC tag will be placed on this soon due to its proximity to the Bahamas and Florida.

Which is why I keep commenting on the existing shear in the Eastern GoM, which has been steadily increasing. It's supposed to move in tandem with 91L, but so far it hasn't really budged. Is that what the GFS is picking up on?

In my humble view, the GFS is simply incorrect. A look at the shear charts on the 12Z run shows that it actually depicts a more favourable environment than previous runs (e.g., 00Z) did, with strong hints of a dual outflow channel starting to show up as 91L moves over/near the Keys and the southernmost FL peninsula. The upper low is clearly moving out of the way on the latest water-vapor imagery—it certainly is allowing sufficient room for 91L to organise. Therefore, I strongly suspect that the GFS is underestimating the intensity of 91L. The shear charts that you mention indicate short-term increases in shear over the Gulf as the upper low moves over the area. It is not a permanent trend. Watch shear decrease overnight as the upper low retrogrades.

[Aric Dunn]

umm it is pretty hard to imagine there is nothing trying to get going at the surface right now.. especially with radar..

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... 1535841761

[MississippiWx]

It does not matter if it is named or classified as a PTC before impacting Florida. An afternoon thunderstorm in Florida can be more powerful(in a small area) than a weak tropical storm. I have experienced 50kt+ winds while boating countless times as a result of an afternoon thunderstorm.

Classifying unnecessarily this will only cause hype and scare tourists away. However I do feel that coastal Louisiana and Mississippi need to watch this closely because of the RI potential once this makes it to the gulf.

It matters. A potential tropical cyclone is not classifying unnecessarily because it is simply "potential".

Also, it would be nice to get a jump start on advisories to get the NHC's thoughts on track and intensity.

[MississippiWx]

12z CMC has this developing pretty much right away. I think it has a better grasp on this than the GFS due to current trends.

[Evil Jeremy]

It does not matter if it is named or classified as a PTC before impacting Florida. An afternoon thunderstorm in Florida can be more powerful(in a small area) than a weak tropical storm. I have experienced 50kt+ winds while boating countless times as a result of an afternoon thunderstorm.

Classifying unnecessarily this will only cause hype and scare tourists away. However I do feel that coastal Louisiana and Mississippi need to watch this closely because of the RI potential once this makes it to the gulf.

You are applying subjectivity to what should be an objective process. A tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone, and there's been established precedent for pre-tropical cyclone advisories as well.

[Aric Dunn]

at this point I am going with the WRF lol..

[jaguars_22]

Is the high pressure not going to be as strong as earlier runs which had Texas?? What is protecting Texas?

[JarrodB]

You are applying subjectivity to what should be an objective process. A tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone, and there's been established precedent for pre-tropical cyclone advisories as well.

If and only if it meets the criteria. There is no need to classify a tropical just because it is close to land.

I do think this will become a depression and possibly Gordon by tomorrow night.

[Clearcloudz]

12z CMC has this developing pretty much right away. I think it has a better grasp on this than the GFS due to current trends.

Initialization was very good so yeah I do believe it has a better grasp of current situation and trends.

[jlauderdal]

Nogaps

at this point I am going with the WRF lol..

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[Aric Dunn]

Nogaps

at this point I am going with the WRF lol..

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From the current level of organization .. I would wager on this becoming a TC sooner rather than later.

The shear has dropped to well within a developmental standpoint. not to stop it from now till the gulf..

[drezee]

We will need to start talking about barrier and low lying islands. If it goes, we may not have much time to evacuate them.

[jlauderdal]

That seems very reasonable, really need some some mid and low level obs..as you know, we have seen very impressive sat presentations and nada at the surface

Nogaps

at this point I am going with the WRF lol..

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From the current level of organization .. I would wager on this becoming a TC sooner rather than later.

The shear has dropped to well within a developmental standpoint. not to stop it from now till the gulf..

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[tgenius]

That seems very reasonable, really need some some mid and low level obs..as you know, we have seen very impressive sat presentations and nada at the surface

Nogaps

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From the current level of organization .. I would wager on this becoming a TC sooner rather than later.

The shear has dropped to well within a developmental standpoint. not to stop it from now till the gulf..

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Gotta get that generator going buddy!

[JarrodB]

Unfortunately there are no buoys in the vicinity. Tomorrow when this system is over the Keys and S. Florida we will get direct obs.

At the 2pm(edt) update I hope the NHC announces recon flights.

[Aric Dunn]

I am watching the convection in this area( red circle ) for their overall motion .. if we see some easterly ( ne , nne, ene etc. ) component to them then it is highly likely we have a developing circ. not guaranteed but given the convective pattern, we have now I would not be surprised.