ATL: GORDON - Models

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jlauderdal
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#41 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:23 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Hwrf is worse than the gfs lol
For intensity it sure seems that way, once in a while it finds a good solution but so rare it has to be discounted bigly

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#42 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:23 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:HWRF with a Cat 2 at 51 hours, moving NW towards Ms.
Hwrf usually good for at least two categories to the plus side

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Usually, but the Euro showed this very same thing about 3 runs ago. It’s not totally out of the realm of possibilities for rapid intensification to occur. If that is to happen, this recent burst of convection needs to bring the circulation to the surface within the next 12 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#43 Postby PSUHiker31 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:27 pm

I suggest those trashing the HWRF on intensity go back and look at the forecasts for Harvey. For a good chunk of the extended short range the HWRF did a better job than the GFS and Euro at least showing that Harvey had the ability to organize into more than a strong tropical storm.

You have to look at HWRF intensity forecasts as potential especially since GFS/Euro don't have the resolution to capture the true strength.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#44 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:32 pm

PSUHiker31 wrote:I suggest those trashing the HWRF on intensity go back and look at the forecasts for Harvey. For a good chunk of the extended short range the HWRF did a better job than the GFS and Euro at least showing that Harvey had the ability to organize into more than a strong tropical storm.

You have to look at HWRF intensity forecasts as potential especially since GFS/Euro don't have the resolution to capture the true strength.
It does get a win occasionally but typically it way over intensifies storms, i predict that's the case with this system

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#45 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:33 pm

When you figure that the absolute max wind the model shows is not realistic or representative and that a 982 mb storm would probably be a 65 to 70 kt 1-min wind. NHC is forecasting 50kt. Model is saying 65 to 70kt. It's probably wrong but it's not that unrealistic. Now if it was showing a 110 kt storm that would be different.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#46 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:34 pm

Can't count any scenario out until it really is. HWRF is a good model but it's also hit or miss.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#47 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:35 pm

HWRF is actually considered one of the top models for intensity guidance.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#48 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:48 pm

The Gulf of Mexico is so warm this year I can't see anything good occurring if this sucker gets in there. Hopefully, it'll encounter hostile upper-level conditions or ingest dry air. I don't even what to think about what could happen otherwise...
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#49 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:05 pm

SFL would get some decent squalls if this HWRF pans out..

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#50 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:07 pm

HRRR with a lot of rain for South Florida, maybe some tornado watches with those deep tropical squalls?

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#51 Postby Highteeld » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:If it happens on real time,this model will be the king.

Image


Image

SHIPS seems to think it could happen
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#52 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:12 pm

What is interesting is the west movement into Texas
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#53 Postby Highteeld » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:13 pm

Highteeld wrote:
cycloneye wrote:If it happens on real time,this model will be the king.

Image


Image

SHIPS seems to think it could happen


Corrected
Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#54 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:25 pm

18z HWRF has a weak TS landfall in S.Fla... we have about 18-20 hours before potential landfall..we shall see if future Gordon develops prior to the gulf.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#55 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:32 pm

If that intensity materializes it would be a huge win for the hwrf
Bocadude85 wrote:18z HWRF has a weak TS landfall in S.Fla... we have about 18-20 hours before potential landfall..we shall see if future Gordon develops prior to the gulf.


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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#56 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:27 pm

jlauderdal wrote:If that intensity materializes it would be a huge win for the hwrf
Bocadude85 wrote:18z HWRF has a weak TS landfall in S.Fla... we have about 18-20 hours before potential landfall..we shall see if future Gordon develops prior to the gulf.


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My perception of the HWRF is that it seems to be inconsistent and swing by wildly deepening a system for a run or two, and then swinging back to a much less intense model run, then back again. I wonder if that's just some off perception I have based on just those times I've focused on the model? Anyone else seem to have noticed similar run to run spreads?
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#57 Postby carolina_73 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:55 pm

The HWRF can do pretty good with small systems like this. Global models seem to struggle with smaller developing storms. When are the going to run the HMON?
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#58 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:02 pm

carolina_73 wrote:The HWRF can do pretty good with small systems like this. Global models seem to struggle with smaller developing storms. When are the going to run the HMON?


Been wondering about the HMON as well. NHC stated in their discussion that it would be ran along with the HWRF.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#59 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:35 pm

Does the 00Z GFS look like it was initialized way too far east?
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#60 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:54 pm

0z GFS still unimpressed. Not even sure it truly develops this into a tropical cyclone at all.
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