ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

This one shook off the lions and zebras at a pretty low lat

[bob rulz]

This is definitely the kind of invest that you don't want to see in early September. And the wave behind it has been forecasted to develop too, no?

[TheStormExpert]

This will likely be more problematic than Florence assuming it develops.

[Cpv17]

Looks like a west runner to me. Definitely need to keep an eye out for this one.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system located
a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
forecast to move slowly westward to west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Although this
disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by late this week or this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[jlauderdal]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system located
a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
forecast to move slowly westward to west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Although this
disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by late this week or this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

classic cape verde system, can it make it across, we will see

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2018090412, , BEST, 0, 101N, 229W, 25, 1007, LO

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 20N southward.A 1007 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave near 10N. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 13N to 16N between 20W and 24W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 07N to 10N between 24W and 30W.

[Gustywind]

12z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2018090412, , BEST, 0, 101N, 229W, 25, 1007, LO

That's a position a bit more south than the previous one

[SoupBone]

The sooner this thing develops, the better its chances of following Florence becomes. I hope so for you guys Luis. It's that lower latitude that is concerning.


At 70% now.

[chaser1]

Best I could find was a full disc view but seemed pretty hard to judge from the angle. It's slow forecast motion lends me to think that without a significant easterly surge and/or (lack of) building ridging to move west in tandem with the Invest, that it would just see too much a stretch for me to believe it could remain low latitude all the way to the Islands. Add to the fact that Florence sitting out there might well establish an over-all weakness in the steering flow. After last year I'm sure it's gotta be unnerving for you guys in the Lesser/Greater Antilles. At least the steering heights are a good deal less then what we all saw for nearly all July and August.

[SoupBone]

Best I could find was a full disc view but seemed pretty hard to judge from the angle. It's slow forecast motion lends me to think that without a significant easterly surge and/or (lack of) building ridging to move west in tandem with the Invest, that it would just see too much a stretch for me to believe it could remain low latitude all the way to the Islands. Add to the fact that Florence sitting out there might well establish an over-all weakness in the steering flow. After last year I'm sure it's gotta be unnerving for you guys in the Lesser/Greater Antilles. At least the steering heights are a good deal less then what we all saw for nearly all July and August.

Still a lot of time for things to change, but that's good solid thinking. I think everyone watching Florence scratches their head because of the close proximity as to why it wouldn't feel any part of the weakness that's going to be left there.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=30%/80%

A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move slowly westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this week or this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[plasticup]

I called this wave at the Talking Tropics thread the sleeper one and here we are now with the invest and Euro showing what PR does not need.

I don't think anyone disagrees, they were just distracted by all the other excitement in the basin. 92L is tracking so low that it has all the potential of a real Cape Verde-style hurricane.

[wx98]

Not making predictions but I get 2010 Earl and Igor feelings about 92L. We’ll see how it develops, and if it ultimately follows Florence out to sea, albeit closer to Bermuda and maybe the east coast.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W from 21N southward. A 1007 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave near
10N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N to 16N between 21W and 25W, and from 07N to 10N between
25W and 30W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 02N to 17N between Africa and 30W.

[EquusStorm]

This is all really impressive for a season that many, myself included, sensed would be a mostly home-grown season with little potential for a bunch of Cape Verde storms. September could well be jaw-dropping for the second year in a row

[cycloneye]

40%/90%

A broad area of low pressure with disorganized cloudiness and
showers is centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[EquusStorm]

And the wave behind it is on the 5-day outlook now. Would never have expected this two weeks ago

[shiny-pebble]

And the wave behind it is on the 5-day outlook now. Would never have expected this two weeks ago

It's like September happened and now the tropics are exploding. If this keeps up, we could definitely hit average ace.

This wave and the one behind it will be ones to track for a long time.

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