ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That's been one of the possible solutions for several model runs for a couple of days now. As usual it's going to kind of end up being a battle between the Euro and the GFS. Strangely enough though the GFS and the Euro were in complete agreement about 2 days ago, then suddenly the GFS flipped to include a trek over the Caribbean islands
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- BlowHard
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 44
- Age: 65
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:15 pm
- Location: Vieques, PR/Swansea, MA
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Michele B wrote:Just read on another forum that if Flo hangs around near the Carolina coast the way they are projecting, it will create a weakness that Isaac can then steer more northerly. Any credence to that idea?
Ha! We're having trouble finding a consensus about what it is going to do in three days, never mind ten....
0 likes
I am not a professional and this is just my opinion. Always refer to the professionals for advice.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations
USAID/OFDA
USAID/OFDA
@theOFDA
·
17h
While our colleagues
@fema
prepare for US impacts of
#HurricaneFlorence
, we're watching
#HurricaneIsaac
track towards the
#Caribbean
.
@USAID
is ready to respond overseas w/ disaster experts & relief supplies.
#HurricaneSeason2018
USAID/OFDA
@theOFDA
·
17h
While our colleagues
@fema
prepare for US impacts of
#HurricaneFlorence
, we're watching
#HurricaneIsaac
track towards the
#Caribbean
.
@USAID
is ready to respond overseas w/ disaster experts & relief supplies.
#HurricaneSeason2018
0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations
artist wrote:Please post any evacuation orders, closings and observations here.
Prepare early, leave if ordered, and in doubt of low lying areas, and know you all are in our thoughts and prayers.
Be sure to check in as soon as you can, once power and cell service is restored.
Mods, can you sticky, please?
Thanks a lot Artist! That's a very good job as usual! congrats!
1 likes
- ouragans
- Category 1
- Posts: 465
- Age: 52
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
- Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tropical Storm ISAAC
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 11, 2018:
Location: 14.6°N 49.0°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM
Still a TS on the best track
0 likes
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:
That's been one of the possible solutions for several model runs for a couple of days now. As usual it's going to kind of end up being a battle between the Euro and the GFS. Strangely enough though the GFS and the Euro were in complete agreement about 2 days ago, then suddenly the GFS flipped to include a trek over the Caribbean islands
As you know strength as it tracks across the Caribbean will dictate where it ends up, a weaker systems will track straight across the Caribbean into C.A./MX, a stronger system will track towards the weakness near Florence. Time will tell.
1 likes
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations
Gustywind wrote:artist wrote:Please post any evacuation orders, closings and observations here.
Prepare early, leave if ordered, and in doubt of low lying areas, and know you all are in our thoughts and prayers.
Be sure to check in as soon as you can, once power and cell service is restored.
Mods, can you sticky, please?
Thanks a lot Artist! That's a very good job as usual! congrats!
Thanks, Gustywind! If you have any news or sources, could you post them here, too, as after Maria last year it is not as easy to find up to date news sources their in the Caribbean, due to how hard you all were hit last year.
0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations
artist wrote:Gustywind wrote:artist wrote:Please post any evacuation orders, closings and observations here.
Prepare early, leave if ordered, and in doubt of low lying areas, and know you all are in our thoughts and prayers.
Be sure to check in as soon as you can, once power and cell service is restored.
Mods, can you sticky, please?
Thanks a lot Artist! That's a very good job as usual! congrats!
Thanks, Gustywind! If you have any news or sources, could you post them here, too, as after Maria last year it is not as easy to find up to date news sources their in the Caribbean, due to how hard you all were hit last year.
OK no problem, a bit busy this morning but i will try to keep you informed at any time if the situation evolves...
Gustywind
1 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ouragans wrote:Tropical Storm ISAAC
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 11, 2018:
Location: 14.6°N 49.0°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM
Still a TS on the best track
Hi Ouragans glad to see you back in the action. Looks better organized to my untrained eyes since the last 2 hours, close to regain HU status maybe this afternoon IMO. We should continue to monitor it carefully as this little boy wants to go west towards the EC islands. What are your latest thoughts about TS ISAAC?
2 likes
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:SoupBone wrote:
That's been one of the possible solutions for several model runs for a couple of days now. As usual it's going to kind of end up being a battle between the Euro and the GFS. Strangely enough though the GFS and the Euro were in complete agreement about 2 days ago, then suddenly the GFS flipped to include a trek over the Caribbean islands
As you know strength as it tracks across the Caribbean will dictate where it ends up, a weaker systems will track straight across the Caribbean into C.A./MX, a stronger system will track towards the weakness near Florence. Time will tell.
No doubt, and I think that's the fit with this system is that it can easily ramp up and down, so the models aren't agreeing.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ouragans
- Category 1
- Posts: 465
- Age: 52
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
- Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Gustywind wrote:Hi Ouragans glad to see you back in the action. Looks better organized to my untrained eyes since the last 2 hours, close to regain HU status maybe this afternoon IMO. We should continue to monitor it carefully as this little boy wants to go west towards the EC islands. What are your latest thoughts about TS ISAAC?
Hi Gusty
I was discussing with a journalist at 9AM, and was telling him I was sure the best track underestimates the current intensity. For me Isaac is HU with 70-75 kts. We will verify that at 15z. My friends are crazy with HRWF (and I don't like it), they believe in RI today, like +10kts/6 hrs minimum... I'm on a steady +10 kts/12 hrs
Did you have time to buy water? Our people is crazy. ALL supermarkets were out stock yesterday...
1 likes
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- knotimpaired
- Category 1
- Posts: 495
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 4:14 am
- Location: Vieques, PR
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations
They are planning on moving our ferries, from Vieques, to San Juan tonight at 8 pm.
Personally, I think this is way to soon, I would like to know what Luis thinks????
Darn inconvenience if Isaac stays far south.
Personally, I think this is way to soon, I would like to know what Luis thinks????
Darn inconvenience if Isaac stays far south.
1 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19165
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ISAAC Floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2941
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I would think that watches will be issued for the islands with the 11am advisory.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Bocadude85 wrote:I would think that watches will be issued for the islands with the 11am advisory.
their did
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139059
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR ISAAC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe
and Martinique.
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.
The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.
Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
One-minute visible satellite data from GOES-16 indicate that
the center of Isaac remains on the westward edge of the central
dense overcast. The initial wind speed is kept at 60 kt, which is a
compromise between the lower subjective estimates and higher ADTs
and microwave estimates. This is a more uncertain estimate than
normal due to the spread of the intensity fixes. The initial wind
and 12 ft seas radii have been expanded out to the north based on
TAFB estimates and microwave data.
The intensity forecast continues to be tricky. Westerly shear
should increase over the next couple of days, which would normally
cause some weakening. However this effect could be tempered by
increasing SSTs, mid-level moisture and instability in the path of
the storm. Given our limited skill in forecasting intensity changes
in marginal environments, plus the 5 or 10 kt of initial wind speed
uncertainty, the official forecast will show no significant change
in intensity for the next couple of days. Because of these
uncertainties, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for many of the
Leeward Islands, even though Isaac is not explicitly forecast to be
a hurricane. Some weakening is indicated at long range after
considering the global model trends in intensity, which have done
fairly well for Isaac.
The latest initial motion estimate is 270/14. Isaac is forecast to
move westward at about the same speed for the next few days due to
a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. Other than the
UKMET model, there is not much spread in the guidance, except with
the forward speed. Given the strength of the ridge, the cyclone
isn't likely to slow down much, so the official forecast is
basically along the previous forecast track but faster. The
uncertainty increases at long range, and is somewhat dependent on
the intensity of Isaac, but faster seems to be way to go given the
weakening trend anticipated at that time.
Key Messages:
1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued for several islands.
Interests in those areas should follow any advice given by their
local officials.
2. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
monitor Isaac during the next couple of days, as additional watches
could be needed for other islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.7N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 14.9N 57.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 15.1N 59.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 15.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR ISAAC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe
and Martinique.
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.
The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.
Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
One-minute visible satellite data from GOES-16 indicate that
the center of Isaac remains on the westward edge of the central
dense overcast. The initial wind speed is kept at 60 kt, which is a
compromise between the lower subjective estimates and higher ADTs
and microwave estimates. This is a more uncertain estimate than
normal due to the spread of the intensity fixes. The initial wind
and 12 ft seas radii have been expanded out to the north based on
TAFB estimates and microwave data.
The intensity forecast continues to be tricky. Westerly shear
should increase over the next couple of days, which would normally
cause some weakening. However this effect could be tempered by
increasing SSTs, mid-level moisture and instability in the path of
the storm. Given our limited skill in forecasting intensity changes
in marginal environments, plus the 5 or 10 kt of initial wind speed
uncertainty, the official forecast will show no significant change
in intensity for the next couple of days. Because of these
uncertainties, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for many of the
Leeward Islands, even though Isaac is not explicitly forecast to be
a hurricane. Some weakening is indicated at long range after
considering the global model trends in intensity, which have done
fairly well for Isaac.
The latest initial motion estimate is 270/14. Isaac is forecast to
move westward at about the same speed for the next few days due to
a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. Other than the
UKMET model, there is not much spread in the guidance, except with
the forward speed. Given the strength of the ridge, the cyclone
isn't likely to slow down much, so the official forecast is
basically along the previous forecast track but faster. The
uncertainty increases at long range, and is somewhat dependent on
the intensity of Isaac, but faster seems to be way to go given the
weakening trend anticipated at that time.
Key Messages:
1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued for several islands.
Interests in those areas should follow any advice given by their
local officials.
2. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
monitor Isaac during the next couple of days, as additional watches
could be needed for other islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.7N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 14.9N 57.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 15.1N 59.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 15.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139059
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe
and Martinique.
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.
The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.
and Martinique.
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.
The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 113 guests