ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

Wow, the tropics on the ATL side are suddenly so quiet now! Is it likely end of season?

[Audreyadele]

I know absolutely nothing, except from what I’ve read on here and then searched online, but whatever is left doesn’t look that disorganized to me, nor does it look like it’s making a direct landfall over Jamaica. Does that matter?
I’ve been waiting for someone to post something, which makes me think there is nothing new to post.

[meriland29]

I know absolutely nothing, except from what I’ve read on here and then searched online, but whatever is left doesn’t look that disorganized to me, nor does it look like it’s making a direct landfall over Jamaica. Does that matter?
I’ve been waiting for someone to post something, which makes me think there is nothing new to post.

It does matter because it is a semi-organized wave, like a person hanging on a cliff. Past Jamaica is extremely favorable waters.. if the perpetual LLC area were to skirt by or miss Jamaica, it would elevate its potential to re-develop into a tropical storm exponentially.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like I might have some crow soon. Dry air preventing development according to NHC, so my forecast of development is in jeopardy. Still think some rain gets thrown up Texas’s way so that might be a concern there, but if steering keeps it south of Texas then that won’t materialize- which would be good news for that area.

[SoupBone]

Looks like I might have some crow soon. Dry air preventing development according to NHC, so my forecast of development is in jeopardy. Still think some rain gets thrown up Texas’s way so that might be a concern there.

His convection is waning quickly tonight.

[Frank P]

Convection all but gone but the actual center never hit the island and is just south of the island currently..

[wxman57]

There isn't much to make "landfall" anywhere, just a tropical wave axis. Conditions in its path aren't extremely favorable for development, as we saw with 95L last week. Development chances 5% or less. Remnants may cause an increase in showers along the Texas coast by Thursday, but that's about it.

[EquusStorm]

At this point I really don't think Isaac's coming back, just not much left but a weak axis and inconsistent convection.

[SoupBone]

At this point I really don't think Isaac's coming back, just not much left but a weak axis and inconsistent convection.

[GCANE]

17N 80W

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Nice spinning convergence followed by a blowup.

[Stormcenter]

Who said Isaac was DOA?

[GCANE]

That area is shooting some stronger convection now.
Resurrection may be forth coming.

[EquusStorm]

It's blown up convection over a lower level spin multiple times now only to die off later; if it could persist longer term something might happen but like 95L it hasn't persisted thus far... still very much worth watching

[Portastorm]

As a casual observer of this thread, I have to share that I am finding it quite entertaining. I usually check on it every few hours and I swear it seems like the last few days, the posts go from "It's dead, Jim" to "It is A-L-I-V-E!"

As a Texan with great interest in how potential tropical weather may impact us ... I will continue to count on y'all to keep me updated. Every few hours.

[MississippiWx]

Hard to believe this area can't regenerate in the middle of September in the Western Caribbean. Shear isn't terrible, but there is some dry air around. Still, it should be able to redevelop into at least a depression or weak storm this time of year. Just goes to show that the actual MDR is not very conducive for tropical development this year. It has been a struggle for any system south of 20N this year. If this were somewhere around Bermuda, I think it would have no problem regenerating.

[SoupBone]

It's definitely not dead, but it's also played this trick several times over the last few days. Convection fires, then dies quickly.

[galaxy401]

Isaac pulsates then poofs just like our mood regarding hurricanes.

[meriland29]

Not sure if this sudden surge of deep convection is telling, but it sure looks telling. Jamaica is the only problem in his way, if he persists to thrive as a active wave beyond Jamaica, then I would be flat out surprised if he isn't upgraded 1-2 days past that island...

[meriland29]

I am curious, if Isaac becomes something in the future, would he still be Isaac or would he be Kirk?

[Craters]

I am curious, if Isaac becomes something in the future, would he still be Isaac or would he be Kirk?

On the basis of past experience (hopefully remembered correctly!) Isaac would still be Isaac. My guess at the reasoning would go like this: a named storm hits a small but intense "unfavorable environment," loses its closed circulation, and its winds drop to 30 kt for just a short time, say 8 hours. Then it reorganizes. No need to change its name just because of a hiccup.

Granted, Isaac lost its status and name quite a while ago, but with all of the resources available these days, its remnants can't hide, even if it doesn't want to go on the cart...