ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Hmmm...

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1039461412526059520

[SoupBone]

Hmmm...

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1039461412526059520

That's been one of the possible solutions for several model runs for a couple of days now. As usual it's going to kind of end up being a battle between the Euro and the GFS. Strangely enough though the GFS and the Euro were in complete agreement about 2 days ago, then suddenly the GFS flipped to include a trek over the Caribbean islands

[BlowHard]

Just read on another forum that if Flo hangs around near the Carolina coast the way they are projecting, it will create a weakness that Isaac can then steer more northerly. Any credence to that idea?

Ha! We're having trouble finding a consensus about what it is going to do in three days, never mind ten....

[artist]

USAID/OFDA
USAID/OFDA
@theOFDA
·
17h
While our colleagues
@fema
prepare for US impacts of
#HurricaneFlorence
, we're watching
#HurricaneIsaac
track towards the
#Caribbean
.
@USAID
is ready to respond overseas w/ disaster experts & relief supplies.
#HurricaneSeason2018

[artist]

https://stormcarib.com/

[Gustywind]

Please post any evacuation orders, closings and observations here.
Prepare early, leave if ordered, and in doubt of low lying areas, and know you all are in our thoughts and prayers.
Be sure to check in as soon as you can, once power and cell service is restored.

Mods, can you sticky, please?

Thanks a lot Artist! That's a very good job as usual! congrats!

[Gustywind]

TS Isaac

11/1145 UTC 14.5N 48.8W T3.5/4.0 ISAAC

[ouragans]

Tropical Storm ISAAC
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 11, 2018:

Location: 14.6°N 49.0°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM

Still a TS on the best track

[NDG]

Hmmm...

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/stat ... 2526059520

That's been one of the possible solutions for several model runs for a couple of days now. As usual it's going to kind of end up being a battle between the Euro and the GFS. Strangely enough though the GFS and the Euro were in complete agreement about 2 days ago, then suddenly the GFS flipped to include a trek over the Caribbean islands

As you know strength as it tracks across the Caribbean will dictate where it ends up, a weaker systems will track straight across the Caribbean into C.A./MX, a stronger system will track towards the weakness near Florence. Time will tell.

[artist]

Please post any evacuation orders, closings and observations here.
Prepare early, leave if ordered, and in doubt of low lying areas, and know you all are in our thoughts and prayers.
Be sure to check in as soon as you can, once power and cell service is restored.

Mods, can you sticky, please?

Thanks a lot Artist! That's a very good job as usual! congrats!

Thanks, Gustywind! If you have any news or sources, could you post them here, too, as after Maria last year it is not as easy to find up to date news sources their in the Caribbean, due to how hard you all were hit last year.

[Gustywind]

Please post any evacuation orders, closings and observations here.
Prepare early, leave if ordered, and in doubt of low lying areas, and know you all are in our thoughts and prayers.
Be sure to check in as soon as you can, once power and cell service is restored.

Mods, can you sticky, please?

Thanks a lot Artist! That's a very good job as usual! congrats!

Thanks, Gustywind! If you have any news or sources, could you post them here, too, as after Maria last year it is not as easy to find up to date news sources their in the Caribbean, due to how hard you all were hit last year.

OK no problem, a bit busy this morning but i will try to keep you informed at any time if the situation evolves...
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm ISAAC
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 11, 2018:

Location: 14.6°N 49.0°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM

Still a TS on the best track

Hi Ouragans glad to see you back in the action. Looks better organized to my untrained eyes since the last 2 hours, close to regain HU status maybe this afternoon IMO. We should continue to monitor it carefully as this little boy wants to go west towards the EC islands. What are your latest thoughts about TS ISAAC?

[SoupBone]

Hmmm...

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/stat ... 2526059520

That's been one of the possible solutions for several model runs for a couple of days now. As usual it's going to kind of end up being a battle between the Euro and the GFS. Strangely enough though the GFS and the Euro were in complete agreement about 2 days ago, then suddenly the GFS flipped to include a trek over the Caribbean islands

As you know strength as it tracks across the Caribbean will dictate where it ends up, a weaker systems will track straight across the Caribbean into C.A./MX, a stronger system will track towards the weakness near Florence. Time will tell.

No doubt, and I think that's the fit with this system is that it can easily ramp up and down, so the models aren't agreeing.

[ouragans]

Hi Ouragans glad to see you back in the action. Looks better organized to my untrained eyes since the last 2 hours, close to regain HU status maybe this afternoon IMO. We should continue to monitor it carefully as this little boy wants to go west towards the EC islands. What are your latest thoughts about TS ISAAC?

Hi Gusty
I was discussing with a journalist at 9AM, and was telling him I was sure the best track underestimates the current intensity. For me Isaac is HU with 70-75 kts. We will verify that at 15z. My friends are crazy with HRWF (and I don't like it), they believe in RI today, like +10kts/6 hrs minimum... I'm on a steady +10 kts/12 hrs

Did you have time to buy water? Our people is crazy. ALL supermarkets were out stock yesterday...

[knotimpaired]

They are planning on moving our ferries, from Vieques, to San Juan tonight at 8 pm.

Personally, I think this is way to soon, I would like to know what Luis thinks????

Darn inconvenience if Isaac stays far south.

[tolakram]

ISAAC Floater

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Bocadude85]

I would think that watches will be issued for the islands with the 11am advisory.

[floridasun78]

I would think that watches will be issued for the islands with the 11am advisory.

their did

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe
and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

One-minute visible satellite data from GOES-16 indicate that
the center of Isaac remains on the westward edge of the central
dense overcast. The initial wind speed is kept at 60 kt, which is a
compromise between the lower subjective estimates and higher ADTs
and microwave estimates. This is a more uncertain estimate than
normal due to the spread of the intensity fixes. The initial wind
and 12 ft seas radii have been expanded out to the north based on
TAFB estimates and microwave data.

The intensity forecast continues to be tricky. Westerly shear
should increase over the next couple of days, which would normally
cause some weakening. However this effect could be tempered by
increasing SSTs, mid-level moisture and instability in the path of
the storm. Given our limited skill in forecasting intensity changes
in marginal environments, plus the 5 or 10 kt of initial wind speed
uncertainty, the official forecast will show no significant change
in intensity for the next couple of days. Because of these
uncertainties, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for many of the
Leeward Islands, even though Isaac is not explicitly forecast to be
a hurricane. Some weakening is indicated at long range after
considering the global model trends in intensity, which have done
fairly well for Isaac.

The latest initial motion estimate is 270/14. Isaac is forecast to
move westward at about the same speed for the next few days due to
a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. Other than the
UKMET model, there is not much spread in the guidance, except with
the forward speed. Given the strength of the ridge, the cyclone
isn't likely to slow down much, so the official forecast is
basically along the previous forecast track but faster. The
uncertainty increases at long range, and is somewhat dependent on
the intensity of Isaac, but faster seems to be way to go given the
weakening trend anticipated at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued for several islands.
Interests in those areas should follow any advice given by their
local officials.

2. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
monitor Isaac during the next couple of days, as additional watches
could be needed for other islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.7N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 14.9N 57.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 15.1N 59.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 15.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 15.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe
and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Montserrat.