ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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BYG Jacob
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion: 8 PM TWO=40%/90%

#41 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:01 pm

This is why anybody posting season canceled in August should be ignored.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#42 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:43 pm

Soon to be Helene.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#43 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:54 pm

First appareance as a special feature... no surprise there.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018


A strong tropical wave has its axis extending from 04N26W to13N25W and to near 19N23W, with a 1007 mb low on the axis near 11N25W. This system depicts a broad area of low pressure with disorganized cloudiness. Deep convection, for the time being, is rather limited. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of aline from 13N24W to 12.5N28W, within 30 nm of another line from 08N27W to 07N30W and within 30 nm of 14N24W. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion: 8 PM TWO=40%/90%

#44 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:59 pm

EquusStorm wrote:And the wave behind it is on the 5-day outlook now. Would never have expected this two weeks ago


Even the slowest seasons usually manage to put together an active week or two in September.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:32 pm

The way things are going this week, this may be Helene by tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#46 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:45 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The way things are going this week, this may be Helene by tomorrow.


Before you know it we'll all be so tired from the dizzying pace that doctors will have to invent a new diagnosis to identify those of us afflicted by Tropical Cyclone Apathy" :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#47 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:56 pm

chaser1 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The way things are going this week, this may be Helene by tomorrow.


Before you know it we'll all be so tired from the dizzying pace that doctors will have to invent a new diagnosis to identify those of us afflicted by Tropical Cyclone Apathy" :lol:


I'm just thinking - when was the last time there were two active hurricanes at once in both the Atlantic and EPAC?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#48 Postby JaxGator » Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The way things are going this week, this may be Helene by tomorrow.


Before you know it we'll all be so tired from the dizzying pace that doctors will have to invent a new diagnosis to identify those of us afflicted by Tropical Cyclone Apathy" :lol:


I'm just thinking - when was the last time there were two active hurricanes at once in both the Atlantic and EPAC?


It's been awhile I believe. Hurricanes Andrew and Lester in 1992.
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Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016 , Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:18 pm

Came out very late but here is the 00z Best track.

AL, 92, 2018090500, , BEST, 0, 104N, 260W, 25, 1007, LO


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#50 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:57 am

Very broad 850mb vort.
Obviously will be tracking nearly due west.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:50 am

8 AM TWO=50%/90%

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week
while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#52 Postby Frank2 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:17 am

The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#53 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:52 am

Frank2 wrote:The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#54 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:07 am

abajan wrote:
Frank2 wrote:The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.

Great analysis Abajan :) that make sens! Anyway, we have a lot of time to Watch it. By the way, the other twave Inside Africa forecasted to emerge during the couple of days too, could be player given the westward projection anticipated. Looks like a busy September, all the twaves must be monitored as usual.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#55 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:08 am

abajan wrote:
Frank2 wrote:The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.
i havent seen a projected track from NHC beyond 5 days...problem is florence exits and a ridge builds in behind, lets see how gfs and euro handle it in the next few days
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#56 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:29 am

Fresh WINDSAT

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#57 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:58 am

jlauderdal wrote:
abajan wrote:
Frank2 wrote:The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.
i havent seen a projected track from NHC beyond 5 days ...

Quite right. I thought about that after posting, but didn't bother editing. lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:45 am

Is slowly organizing.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#59 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:10 am

jlauderdal wrote:
abajan wrote:
Frank2 wrote:The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.
i havent seen a projected track from NHC beyond 5 days...problem is florence exits and a ridge builds in behind, lets see how gfs and euro handle it in the next few days


You're right, but they have it moving in a general NW direction on their mapping, so if you extrapolate that out, you miss the islands. I think that's just the current line of thinking right now, obviously subject to change.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#60 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:40 am

92l enters Hebert box at 192 hours on 12Z GFS. Seems the NHC development region should be adjusted south some. Right now it gives the impression it will be following in Florence's wake.
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