ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:50 am

The northern Leewards,Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico dont need another strike 2 years in a row.Let's hope Florence makes a big weakness.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#62 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:The northern Leewards,Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico dont need another strike 2 years in a row.Let's hope Florence makes a big weakness.



With the way she's forecast to slow down some, that's a good possibility still.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#63 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:34 pm

Nearly all the convection has dived south to just north of 10N

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#64 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:44 pm

2 PM TWO: 70%/90%

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion: 2 PM TWO: 70%/90%

#65 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:01 pm

This reminds me a lot of Jose from last year. Broad, messy low pressure system that organizes into a fairly compact TC around 40W and gradually strengthens as it moves WNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#66 Postby Frank2 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:27 pm

At 70/90 thought it had become well developed, but this is all that's there right now:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#67 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2018090518, , BEST, 0, 122N, 281W, 25, 1007, LO


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#68 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:The northern Leewards,Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico dont need another strike 2 years in a row.Let's hope Florence makes a big weakness.

It's early days yet, but what Mark Sudduth says here, about the northeastern islands in the archipelago, is still disconcerting. (Incidentally, for those who don't know, Mark is an S2K member.)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#69 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:34 pm

abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The northern Leewards,Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico dont need another strike 2 years in a row.Let's hope Florence makes a big weakness.

It's early days yet, but what Mark Sudduth says here, about the northeastern islands in the archipelago, is still disconcerting. (Incidentally, for those who don't know, Mark is an S2K member.)


Good discussion by Mark. Let's see what occurs in the next few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#70 Postby bob rulz » Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:45 pm

Frank2 wrote:At 70/90 thought it had become well developed, but this is all that's there right now:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0


There is a definite mid-level spin and good structure though. If it can get a good convective burst over the middle to force the circulation to the surface, it will develop quickly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#71 Postby storminabox » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:02 pm

abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The northern Leewards,Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico dont need another strike 2 years in a row.Let's hope Florence makes a big weakness.

It's early days yet, but what Mark Sudduth says here, about the northeastern islands in the archipelago, is still disconcerting. (Incidentally, for those who don't know, Mark is an S2K member.)


I love Marks discussion. He explains everything in a very user friendly way and he doesn’t unnecessarily hype anything up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#72 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:54 pm

No please,not another Georges type.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#73 Postby AubreyStorm » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:No please,not another Georges type.


Why? 92L maybe a real danger to PR?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#74 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:23 pm

AubreyStorm wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No please,not another Georges type.


Why? 92L maybe a real danger to PR?


Models Thread
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#75 Postby hipshot » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:41 pm

storminabox wrote:
abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The northern Leewards,Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico dont need another strike 2 years in a row.Let's hope Florence makes a big weakness.

It's early days yet, but what Mark Sudduth says here, about the northeastern islands in the archipelago, is still disconcerting. (Incidentally, for those who don't know, Mark is an S2K member.)


I love Marks discussion. He explains everything in a very user friendly way and he doesn’t unnecessarily hype anything up.

That was pretty scary if I lived on the east coast. I would definitely be looking out to day 4,5 of this track!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#76 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:43 pm

8 PM TWO:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be increasingly conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#77 Postby artist » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:07 pm

storminabox wrote:
abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The northern Leewards,Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico dont need another strike 2 years in a row.Let's hope Florence makes a big weakness.

It's early days yet, but what Mark Sudduth says here, about the northeastern islands in the archipelago, is still disconcerting. (Incidentally, for those who don't know, Mark is an S2K member.)


I love Marks discussion. He explains everything in a very user friendly way and he doesn’t unnecessarily hype anything up.

I also,miss Mike Watkins video discussions.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion: 8 PM TWO: 70%/90%

#78 Postby msbee » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:28 pm

Go North, go North,go way North!
Tomorrow is the one year anniversary of Hurricane Irma tearing St Maarten apart. We are still in recovery. Another storm would NOT be in our best interests! :-(
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion: 8 PM TWO: 70%/90%

#79 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:35 pm

msbee wrote:Go North, go North,go way North!
Tomorrow is the one year anniversary of Hurricane Irma tearing St Maarten apart. We are still in recovery. Another storm would NOT be in our best interests! :-(


Agree 100%. PR too is still in recovery mode after Maria as more than 150,000 homes are with the blue tarps and the power grid is still fragil.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#80 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:12 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2018090600, , BEST, 0, 128N, 288W, 20, 1008, LO
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