ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SoupBone
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#641 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:48 pm

So the Euro 12Z so far has a weak system heading toward the Central GoM at 192 hours. Is there a cool front heading toward Texas that's now steering it away in these runs?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#642 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:05 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#643 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:08 pm

[quote="toad strangler"][/quote]

Hmmm, so the NHC thinks it maintains TS strength through Sunday?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#644 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:09 pm

SoupBone wrote:So the Euro 12Z so far has a weak system heading toward the Central GoM at 192 hours. Is there a cool front heading toward Texas that's now steering it away in these runs?


Doesn't look like it. WNW bend at the end toward Cameron Parish.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=240
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#645 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:54 pm

Tropical storm watch for St Maarten has been discontinued
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#646 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:14 pm

Anyone else thinking (on satellite presentation alone) that Isaac is still a TS? :lol:

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#647 Postby EasyTiger » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:18 pm

Isaac looks like he's trying to run away from the shear as fast as possible. That storm is trucking.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#648 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:30 pm

EasyTiger wrote:Isaac looks like he's trying to run away from the shear as fast as possible. That storm is trucking.



Last report was 20mph due west.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#649 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:05 pm

Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ISAAC HAVE ENDED...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 63.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#650 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:08 pm

Strong shear and mid-level dry air is forecast to persist for the
next day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical
depression status on Friday. However, the shear is forecast to
weaken by the weekend
, and moisture values are expected to rise as
the system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea. These conditions
would normally allow for some restregthening
, but the initial
character of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether
there will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more
conducive conditions. Model guidance has been inconsistent on the
future of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this
situation. The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or
degenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the
official forecast follows that consensus
.
At this point it is
just best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each
advisory to see if there are any changes.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#651 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:31 pm

Isaac is trying to make a comeback tonight firing off convection closer to its LLC.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#652 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:33 pm

NDG wrote:Isaac is trying to make a comeback tonight firing off convection closer to its LLC.


He better slow down if he wants that chance. He's been outrunning convection all day. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#653 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:43 pm

Westerly inflow has become better defined over the last few hours with the new convective burst. Watch the low clouds change direction towards the east around 2120z. Could hold together another day or two if it can maintain some convection.

https://i.imgur.com/Drrgj7i.gifv
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#654 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:48 pm

SoupBone wrote:
NDG wrote:Isaac is trying to make a comeback tonight firing off convection closer to its LLC.


He better slow down if he wants that chance. He's been outrunning convection all day. :lol:


He slowed already. Down to 16 mph
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#655 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:48 pm

Hammy wrote:Westerly inflow has become better defined over the last few hours with the new convective burst. Watch the low clouds change direction towards the east around 2120z. Could hold together another day or two if it can maintain some convection.

https://i.imgur.com/Drrgj7i.gifv



If it can maintain convection and the shear does decrease this system will probably survive and be a gulf coast threat down the road.

Right now, I'd say 70% chance of it doing so. Possibly strong tropical storm or hurricane at that.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#656 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:48 pm

SoupBone wrote:
NDG wrote:Isaac is trying to make a comeback tonight firing off convection closer to its LLC.


He better slow down if he wants that chance. He's been outrunning convection all day. :lol:


Isaac does seem to be slowing down based on the previous advisories. Was 20 mph, but now it's 16 mph.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#657 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:25 pm

So many forum threads - so little time. Can anyone tell me whether ANYONE in the Lesser Antilles reported any 40 mph+ sustained winds with Isaac?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#658 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:27 pm

Every frame shows more and more convection firing near the center finally, buuuuut, the low level center has really degenerated over the past two days and wasn't looking that great before the towers started going up several hours ago. Is it too little too late? Will the center open up into a wave until conditions improve or barely hang on? So many crazy uncertainties with this hinging on its survival :eek:
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#659 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:39 pm

I still see spin and nice convection building over top
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#660 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:31 pm

Building convection rapidly approaching DMAX.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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