ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#741 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:27 pm

When recon few through they profiled the surface pressure and it is quite shallow and broad with only 3 or 4 MB's of drop over many miles except for perhaps the very center. Have to wait for the next convective bloom to know where that is now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#742 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:37 pm

meriland29 wrote:Of he ends up surviving the dead zone and gets into the Gulf (and that's a big if)...what are the conditions supposed to be like there by the time he would get there in terms of sheer, water temps, etc?


Water temps and shear would be favorable, but the confusion is due to the models weakening it beforehand. I’m completely baffled by this system to be honest.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#743 Postby MetroMike » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:02 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
meriland29 wrote:Of he ends up surviving the dead zone and gets into the Gulf (and that's a big if)...what are the conditions supposed to be like there by the time he would get there in terms of sheer, water temps, etc?


Water temps and shear would be favorable, but the confusion is due to the models weakening it beforehand. I’m completely baffled by this system to be honest.


Models can't get a good read on it given the conflicting good/bad conditions in these waters.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#744 Postby Ian2401 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:15 pm

Image
Wow, big divergence on intensity models for this system. About half want to kill it off pretty quickly, and the other half want to keep it alive and have it take off.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#745 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:23 pm

I am not professional by any means, so dont take my opinion seriously..but, I wouldnt be the least bit surprised if he ends up a some sort of hurricane in the gulf. It is hard to take GFS or the other models seriously in such a questionable environment. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few runs the models will change their mind on him being a dead wave in boneville...
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#746 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:32 pm

meriland29 wrote:I am not professional by any means, so dont take my opinion seriously..but, I wouldnt be the least bit surprised if he ends up a some sort of hurricane in the gulf. It is hard to take GFS or the other models seriously in such a questionable environment. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few runs the models will change their mind on him being a dead wave in boneville...
Your opinion matters as much as everyone else and your isaac forecast certainly has a chance
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#747 Postby CFLHurricane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:34 pm

meriland29 wrote:I am not professional by any means, so dont take my opinion seriously..but, I wouldnt be the least bit surprised if he ends up a some sort of hurricane in the gulf. It is hard to take GFS or the other models seriously in such a questionable environment. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few runs the models will change their mind on him being a dead wave in boneville...


Reports of Isaac’s death are likely premature, it being peak season and all.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#748 Postby USVIKimmie » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:34 pm

RL3AO wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:I love this comment from the discussion, which is basically NHC's way of saying ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The reality of the situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see if we gain any confidence.


I was trying to guess who wrote that before looking at the name. I went with Lix, but I can totally see that being Eric Blake. He'll have more zingers in the future I think.



Blake has usually had a good sense of humor, even with official statements. He gets the point across, even with the "we dunno" thrown in. I always look forward to his synopsis.

Isaac is past the Virgins, for the most part... but I'll still watch, just to see how this mess plays out. Might learn something!

more like learn just how much Mother Nature likes to laugh at us trying to predict her!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#749 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:42 pm

USVIKimmie wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:I love this comment from the discussion, which is basically NHC's way of saying ¯\_(ツ)_/¯



I was trying to guess who wrote that before looking at the name. I went with Lix, but I can totally see that being Eric Blake. He'll have more zingers in the future I think.



Blake has usually had a good sense of humor, even with official statements. He gets the point across, even with the "we dunno" thrown in. I always look forward to his synopsis.

Isaac is past the Virgins, for the most part... but I'll still watch, just to see how this mess plays out. Might learn something!

more like learn just how much Mother Nature likes to laugh at us trying to predict her!



I find that the easiest way to learn is to speak in absolutes, always be a contrarian, predict doom and gloom at the very first hint a system is developing, predict sunshine and rainbows at the very first sign a single model runs shows a "poof", and lastly, make sure you make references to all the worst storms on record at the first sign of cyclogenesis. If you follow these simple guidelines, you'll go far here.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#750 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:46 pm

SoupBone wrote:
USVIKimmie wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
I was trying to guess who wrote that before looking at the name. I went with Lix, but I can totally see that being Eric Blake. He'll have more zingers in the future I think.



Blake has usually had a good sense of humor, even with official statements. He gets the point across, even with the "we dunno" thrown in. I always look forward to his synopsis.

Isaac is past the Virgins, for the most part... but I'll still watch, just to see how this mess plays out. Might learn something!

more like learn just how much Mother Nature likes to laugh at us trying to predict her!



I find that the easiest way to learn is to speak in absolutes, always be a contrarian, predict doom and gloom at the very first hint a system is developing, predict sunshine and rainbows at the very first sign a single model runs shows a "poof", and lastly, make sure you make references to all the worst storms on record at the first sign of cyclogenesis. If you follow these simple guidelines, you'll go far here.

And never say the 'A' word.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#751 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:54 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
USVIKimmie wrote:

Blake has usually had a good sense of humor, even with official statements. He gets the point across, even with the "we dunno" thrown in. I always look forward to his synopsis.

Isaac is past the Virgins, for the most part... but I'll still watch, just to see how this mess plays out. Might learn something!

more like learn just how much Mother Nature likes to laugh at us trying to predict her!



I find that the easiest way to learn is to speak in absolutes, always be a contrarian, predict doom and gloom at the very first hint a system is developing, predict sunshine and rainbows at the very first sign a single model runs shows a "poof", and lastly, make sure you make references to all the worst storms on record at the first sign of cyclogenesis. If you follow these simple guidelines, you'll go far here.

And never say the 'A' word.



It's actually you always say Annular. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#752 Postby USVIKimmie » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:55 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:And never say the 'A' word.


Nope. Been lurking for years, not a pro by any stretch... just paying attention for my little area. Always learning, too.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#753 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:06 pm

The storm isnt firing convection at all though...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#754 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:07 pm

I think Issac is messing with the NHC. I’m dying this evening, but wait tonight he’ll blow up in the am. TS, no open wave.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#755 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:08 pm

And just like that POOF, it’s gone on IR tonight! He’s just teasing the NHC!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#756 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:10 pm

Convection seems to be rapidly collapsing for the moment but that allows the spiraled convection around the LLC to be better seen. Still looks a lot better than yesterday
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#757 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:12 pm

Frank P wrote:And just like that POOF, it’s gone on IR tonight! He’s just teasing the NHC!



Isaac is a jokester! He's not done, he's playing tiddly winks with us.

Seriously though, the convection is nearly gone. Strange.
Last edited by SoupBone on Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#758 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:13 pm

Did he just have a sudden heart attack and die?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#759 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:26 pm

So I'm guessing since Flo came in weaker, the escape route North was closed because not as big of a window in the Jet Stream.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#760 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:29 pm

I wonder if they're sending recon in again tomorrow. He really looks like trash right now.







But...we'll only be fooled.

Image
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