ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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abajan
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#761 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:35 pm

Now that his convection has diminished, his CoC appears to be much farther south than the 5 PM position.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#762 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:35 pm

Blinhart wrote:So I'm guessing since Flo came in weaker, the escape route North was closed because not as big of a window in the Jet Stream.




Yes sir
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#763 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:37 pm

That spin in seen just before sunset was in the mid levels, was really surprised that it was upgraded back up to a TS earlier this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#764 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:38 pm

SoupBone wrote:I wonder if they're sending recon in again tomorrow. He really looks like trash right now.

But...we'll only be fooled.

Yep. I wouldn't be too quick to write him off just yet. Have a feeling his convection is going to start re-firing later tonight, in the predawn hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#765 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:57 pm

NDG wrote:That spin in seen just before sunset was in the mid levels, was really surprised that it was upgraded back up to a TS earlier this afternoon.

It did appear for a moment that it was trying to stack but it was still moving too fast. That huge collapse in convection seems a bit weird though, it felt too quick.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#766 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:05 pm

I am having a hard time believing he turned into a wave that fast ..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#767 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:11 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
NDG wrote:That spin in seen just before sunset was in the mid levels, was really surprised that it was upgraded back up to a TS earlier this afternoon.

It did appear for a moment that it was trying to stack but it was still moving too fast. That huge collapse in convection seems a bit weird though, it felt too quick.


It's trying to fire a very tiny spot right now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#768 Postby StormTracker » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:22 pm

He's moving too fast for his own good! Is there anything showing that might slow him down? @ 16 MPH, he'll never stack...ST
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#769 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:40 pm

StormTracker wrote:He's moving too fast for his own good! Is there anything showing that might slow him down? @ 16 MPH, he'll never stack...ST

It will reach a point where trades slow down, so I believe this is where it will try to start something.
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#770 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:54 pm

Not to say the same will happen by any stretch, but nonetheless I'm kind of getting Harvey vibes from Isaac.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#771 Postby sphelps8681 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:02 pm

Hammy wrote:Not to say the same will happen by any stretch, but nonetheless I'm kind of getting Harvey vibes from Isaac.


What you talking about Willis!! LOL!! No but seriously. You think.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#772 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:46 pm

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Isaac has rapidly lost organization since the last advisory. The
cyclone has been devoid of any deep convection for most of the
evening, with only a small burst recently forming well to the west
of where Isaac's low-level center is believed to be located. While
it is possible, if not likely, that the maximum winds have decreased
a little since this afternoon due to the lack of convection, the
initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft
data. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Isaac again overnight and will provide a better estimate of the
strength and status of Isaac.

The global models continue to insist that Isaac could open into a
trough at any time, and based on the current state of the cyclone,
this could be imminent.
The regional hurricane models, however, show
the development of one or more mesoscale lows embedded within a
larger cyclonic envelope that cause Isaac to persist for at least a
few more days in those models. While the global model solution still
seems more likely, I can't rule out that Isaac will persist a little
longer, so the NHC forecast still carries a 72 h forecast point.

Regardless of whether Isaac is a tropical storm or a tropical wave
over the next few days, heavy rains and occasional gusty winds are
still likely across much of the Greater Antilles through the next
couple of days.

It has been very difficult to try to pinpoint a low-level center of
Isaac over the past few hours, but based on microwave data it
appears to still be moving west at about 13 kt.
The GFS and ECMWF
are in very good agreement and show Isaac, or its remnants, moving
steadily westward for the next several days. The regional models on
the other hand show a farther north motion, in part due to one or
more reformations of the center. The NHC forecast continues to favor
the global model solutions and is on the south side of the guidance
envelope, however if it becomes clear that Isaac will survive
longer, a northward adjustment may be required in later advisories
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#773 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:59 pm

He's moving at 15 mph, is that really too fast? It seems kind of, well, normal to me.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#774 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:09 pm

So basically the NHC is saying it has disintigrated to a point where the scenarios the GFS, etc have been playing out are almost certain now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#775 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:51 pm

Looking better than he was a few hours ago. Convection building.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#776 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:06 pm

Yeesh, talk about a roller coaster of a storm! :roll: :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#777 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:29 pm

SoupBone wrote:Looking better than he was a few hours ago. Convection building.



NHC: "The global models continue to insist that Isaac could open into a
trough at any time, and based on the current state of the cyclone, this could be imminent
"

Despite acknowledging he is starting to burst again via the beginning of that discussion, they don't think it matters.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#778 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:36 pm

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Strong vorticity/sharp trough remains with a few NW wind vector

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#779 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:39 pm

In case anyone is interested. Current recon

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#780 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:40 pm

NDG wrote:
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Strong vorticity/sharp trough remains with a few NW wind vector

https://i.imgur.com/28S5DtV.png



I am sorry, I feel dumb...what exactly does that mean for Isaac?
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