ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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caneman
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#781 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:10 am

meriland29 wrote:
NDG wrote:
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Strong vorticity/sharp trough remains with a few NW wind vector

https://i.imgur.com/28S5DtV.png



I am sorry, I feel dumb...what exactly does that mean for Isaac?


It means that there is an LLC. I'm not sure it will be able to develop further. It's odd that not one model does anything much with it. They must be certain in Isaac's eventual demise
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#782 Postby Airboy » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:31 am

Did the center take a big jump SSW? Looks like that when i'm looking on the recon centerfix and comparing it to the latest NHC advisory map?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#783 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:35 am

Mid level shear and little convergence is a pain in the ass.

Of course, once it gets to around 80 west things may very well change.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#784 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:01 am

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#785 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:04 am

The 00Z HWRF has some doom porn with Isaac crossing Cuba on a NW heading at 998 in the gulf.
Still at least a sharp wave in the IR imagery but the surface pressure gradient was broad and non symmetric yesterday.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#786 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:20 am

A system that exposed never had a chance going into the graveyard.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#787 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:55 am

Surprisingly the LLC is more evident on satellite this morning than yesterday. I see it near 15.2N & 70.8W
What is interesting is that the trade winds have really slowed down since yesterday across the central Caribbean where they are usually screaming through here. Is mind boggling why the global models do not strengthen it even though it has slowed down and UL conditions are almost perfect way better than when it was east of the Lesser Antilles.

Edit: I posted the above before reading the latest advisory in which they had dissipated the system, lol. I find it more organized than yesterday yet they have stopped all advisories, this is what happens when a system has no global model support for continuing development.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#788 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:12 am

Looks like Isaac is a wave now. Is he in that graveyard now or just coming up to it? Also, how long until he passes that area? I am keeping an eye on him..he could easily feed off those warm waters part, but till then....c' est la vie
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#789 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:07 am

Did I miss the party? :froze:

What happened to him? I was up till about 3am and he was still firing convection.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#790 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:07 am

The GFS continues to forecast low wind shear in the W Caribbean as Isaac's ghost moves through the area. If he slows down and lingers a bit, he could make a comeback. It is, after all, mid September with some of the hottest water on the planet in that area. However, marginally stable air could be a limiting factor.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#791 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:17 am

Yesterday it seemed like he was getting better, now this? I don't know what to expect from this one anymore, so who knows, he could regenerate. Or not. Talk to me, Isaac! :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#792 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:32 am

AnnularCane wrote:Yesterday it seemed like he was getting better, now this? I don't know what to expect from this one anymore, so who knows, he could regenerate. Or not. Talk to me, Isaac! :lol:



Goose is dead. You gotta let him go.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#793 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:38 am

carribbean not ready hurr too much shear and dry air ISAAC we see you few years
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#794 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:50 am

Glad to hear it! after Florence gets out of the way, it should get quiet again..... It seems like it's Feast or Famine in the tropics this season...........
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#795 Postby EasyTiger » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:25 pm

Not so certain that this one should be written off just yet. Models are starting to pick up on the remnants reaching the southern Gulf the middle of next week. GFS brings an open wave into Texas late next week, while the CMC shows a closed low near Matagorda. Interested in what the 12Z Euro run will show.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#796 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:14 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Issac, now a tropical wave, are located over the
central Caribbean Sea. Slow re-development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that
time, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for
re-development. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast
over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#797 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:24 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Issac, now a tropical wave, are located over the
central Caribbean Sea. Slow re-development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that
time, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for
re-development. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast
over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#798 Postby MississippiWx » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:09 pm

Not really sure why this isn’t still a tropical cyclone. It looks no worse than it did 3 days ago as a naked swirl.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#799 Postby Blinhart » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:16 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Not really sure why this isn’t still a tropical cyclone. It looks no worse than it did 3 days ago as a naked swirl.



Very simple no LLC.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#800 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:19 pm

Still think Isaac could redevelop over the western Caribbean. However, even if it doesn’t develop, the wave which produced Isaac will cross into the Gulf of Mexico and could be a heavy rain threat to Texas or Louisiana next week in my opinion. People in Texas/Louisiana should watch this as a flooding threat, especially since they have had so much heavy rain in parts of Texas/Louisiana the last few weeks.
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