ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#821 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:57 am

Three tornado warnings in the area.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#822 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:04 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#823 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:16 pm

The difference in surface pressure between the center and 50 miles out on the periphery is just a couple millibars. On the other hand at extreme magnification there do appear to still be some west winds wrapping the extreme southern part of the circulation.

These shallow profile surface pressure remnants can spin for days without generating much convection over the center of circulation again. Have to wait for either recon or persistent CDO to know if there is a new dip in surface pressure near the center.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#824 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:36 pm

xironman wrote:Three tornado warnings in the area.
In the Caribbean?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#825 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:44 pm

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac,
is located about 125 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development is possible during the next day or so as it moves
west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive and re-development appears unlikely. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#826 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:49 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
xironman wrote:Three tornado warnings in the area.
In the Caribbean?

Oops meant to post to Florence.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#827 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac,
is located about 125 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development is possible during the next day or so as it moves
west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive and re-development appears unlikely.
Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
.


Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#828 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:25 pm

18z Best Track still with it.

AL, 09, 2018091618, , BEST, 0, 174N, 752W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#829 Postby blp » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:57 pm

Vertically it is looking better than the past few days. The 500mb vorticity has finally moved closer to the 850 and 700 vorticity and is not stretched close to SA like it was yesterday.

However, the models are unanimous that this new consolidation effort will soon be broken up. I been trying to find the reason for several days. Maybe its the land interaction with Jamaica that finally opens this up and disrupts the low level circulation. It looks like it will run right over Jamaica at this point. Interesting to see if this plays out.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#830 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:10 pm

Should be an increase in development chances at the next TWO. Looks pretty solid right now. It will be interesting to see how much interaction with Jamaica impacts its health. A big if, but if it can manage to mostly dodge Jamaica, I think it's very much worth watching on the other side.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#831 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:39 pm

Tbh, I have seen more storms regenerate after completely disintegrating than I can count, and in probably 50% of those, the models and NHC didnt even foresee a chance. ..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#832 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:45 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Should be an increase in development chances at the next TWO. Looks pretty solid right now. It will be interesting to see how much interaction with Jamaica impacts its health. A big if, but if it can manage to mostly dodge Jamaica, I think it's very much worth watching on the other side.


Me too it’s fighting off the shear from
Florence really well. It still has to battle shear in the Gulf but it may be able to overcome the shear considering the insane heat content and how it’s really creating a large region of thunderstorms for itself. In addition as Florence weakens and gradually moves away shear will plummet over the Caribbean. We will see what happens, but I still think it will redevelop. No
Matter what happens with development I fully expect heavy rain and flooding for Texas and Louisiana unfortunately .
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#833 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:26 pm

Without any re-development support from the GFS or Euro I doubt they will raise the chances unless there's a clear indication that an LLC is strengthening/organizing. In the short term land interaction with Jamaica should keep it at bay.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#834 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:29 pm

That burst near where the LLC was near Jamaica sure is impressive, lots of broad scale turning too. But we've seen how sickly the LLC has been, so I'd honestly look for surface obs near Jamaica to see if there's any evidence of it trying to close back up. All other things being equal this looks very impressive right now but Isaac is a trickster.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#835 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:50 pm

NDG wrote:Without any re-development support from the GFS or Euro I doubt they will raise the chances unless there's a clear indication that an LLC is strengthening/organizing. In the short term land interaction with Jamaica should keep it at bay.


And more importantly once Bones has declared him dead there is rarely more than a 20% chance of redevelopment.

Land interaction: check
Future shear: check
Shallow pressure gradient: check
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#836 Postby EasyTiger » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:15 pm

And more importantly once Bones has declared him dead there is rarely more than a 20% chance of redevelopment.


LOL. If there's still a 20% chance of development why write it off? We've seen this story too many times before.
Last edited by EasyTiger on Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#837 Postby EasyTiger » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:18 pm

If you look at the MIMIC, Isaac is pulling in moisture from the Pacific. Not necessarily a weak circulation.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#838 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:52 pm

00z Best Track continues with it.

AL, 09, 2018091700, , BEST, 0, 176N, 755W, 25, 1007, LO


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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#839 Postby Craters » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:18 pm

Given the condition of the system whose name until recently was Isaac, would Jamaica be much of an impediment to reorganization even if the "center" moved right over the island?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#840 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:18 pm

Whatever's left is probably legitimately about to make landfall in Jamaica, so we will get some surace obs at least
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


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