ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#841 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:59 pm

Wow, the tropics on the ATL side are suddenly so quiet now! Is it likely end of season?
0 likes   

Audreyadele
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:08 am
Location: Southwest Houston & Willacy county Tx

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#842 Postby Audreyadele » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:01 pm

I know absolutely nothing, except from what I’ve read on here and then searched online, but whatever is left doesn’t look that disorganized to me, nor does it look like it’s making a direct landfall over Jamaica. Does that matter?
I’ve been waiting for someone to post something, which makes me think there is nothing new to post.
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#843 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:05 pm

Audreyadele wrote:I know absolutely nothing, except from what I’ve read on here and then searched online, but whatever is left doesn’t look that disorganized to me, nor does it look like it’s making a direct landfall over Jamaica. Does that matter?
I’ve been waiting for someone to post something, which makes me think there is nothing new to post.


It does matter because it is a semi-organized wave, like a person hanging on a cliff. Past Jamaica is extremely favorable waters.. if the perpetual LLC area were to skirt by or miss Jamaica, it would elevate its potential to re-develop into a tropical storm exponentially.
2 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5570
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#844 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:02 am

Looks like I might have some crow soon. Dry air preventing development according to NHC, so my forecast of development is in jeopardy. Still think some rain gets thrown up Texas’s way so that might be a concern there, but if steering keeps it south of Texas then that won’t materialize- which would be good news for that area.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#845 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:08 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Looks like I might have some crow soon. Dry air preventing development according to NHC, so my forecast of development is in jeopardy. Still think some rain gets thrown up Texas’s way so that might be a concern there.


His convection is waning quickly tonight.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2108
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#846 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:13 am

Convection all but gone but the actual center never hit the island and is just south of the island currently..
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19391
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#847 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:27 am

There isn't much to make "landfall" anywhere, just a tropical wave axis. Conditions in its path aren't extremely favorable for development, as we saw with 95L last week. Development chances 5% or less. Remnants may cause an increase in showers along the Texas coast by Thursday, but that's about it.
3 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 866
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#848 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:33 am

At this point I really don't think Isaac's coming back, just not much left but a weak axis and inconsistent convection.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#849 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:58 am

EquusStorm wrote:At this point I really don't think Isaac's coming back, just not much left but a weak axis and inconsistent convection.


Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7259
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#850 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:13 pm

17N 80W

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Nice spinning convergence followed by a blowup.
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6319
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#851 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:02 pm

Who said Isaac was DOA?
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7259
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#852 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:05 pm

That area is shooting some stronger convection now.
Resurrection may be forth coming.
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 866
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#853 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:29 pm

It's blown up convection over a lower level spin multiple times now only to die off later; if it could persist longer term something might happen but like 95L it hasn't persisted thus far... still very much worth watching
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9449
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#854 Postby Portastorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:51 pm

As a casual observer of this thread, I have to share that I am finding it quite entertaining. I usually check on it every few hours and I swear it seems like the last few days, the posts go from "It's dead, Jim" to "It is A-L-I-V-E!" :lol:

As a Texan with great interest in how potential tropical weather may impact us ... I will continue to count on y'all to keep me updated. Every few hours. :wink:
5 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1146
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#855 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:53 pm

Hard to believe this area can't regenerate in the middle of September in the Western Caribbean. Shear isn't terrible, but there is some dry air around. Still, it should be able to redevelop into at least a depression or weak storm this time of year. Just goes to show that the actual MDR is not very conducive for tropical development this year. It has been a struggle for any system south of 20N this year. If this were somewhere around Bermuda, I think it would have no problem regenerating. :lol:
2 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#856 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:05 pm

It's definitely not dead, but it's also played this trick several times over the last few days. Convection fires, then dies quickly.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1613
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#857 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:52 pm

Isaac pulsates then poofs just like our mood regarding hurricanes. :lol:
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#858 Postby meriland29 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:25 pm

Not sure if this sudden surge of deep convection is telling, but it sure looks telling. Jamaica is the only problem in his way, if he persists to thrive as a active wave beyond Jamaica, then I would be flat out surprised if he isn't upgraded 1-2 days past that island...
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#859 Postby meriland29 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:27 pm

I am curious, if Isaac becomes something in the future, would he still be Isaac or would he be Kirk?
0 likes   

Craters
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 104
Joined: Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:34 pm
Location: Alvin, TX (south of Houston)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#860 Postby Craters » Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:07 pm

meriland29 wrote:I am curious, if Isaac becomes something in the future, would he still be Isaac or would he be Kirk?


On the basis of past experience (hopefully remembered correctly!) Isaac would still be Isaac. My guess at the reasoning would go like this: a named storm hits a small but intense "unfavorable environment," loses its closed circulation, and its winds drop to 30 kt for just a short time, say 8 hours. Then it reorganizes. No need to change its name just because of a hiccup.

Granted, Isaac lost its status and name quite a while ago, but with all of the resources available these days, its remnants can't hide, even if it doesn't want to go on the cart...
1 likes   
Nothing that I post here should ever be treated as a forecast or anything resembling one. Please check with your local NWS office or the NHC for forecasts, watches, and warnings.


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests