I had to have some basic understanding, which I didn't.
I looked up what the NHC said today and zeroed in on 3 things...
1. Upper Level Low
2. Upper Level Diffluence
3. High Pressure
Yes, I know these are the basics, but I have to start somewhere.
Anyways, I started with High Pressure and that basically solved the mystery... I think. Then, I looked up Upper Level Low and Upper Level Diffluence and I'm thinking these would be the "factors" that could possibly change the forecast. I'm assuming this is why the NHC included them in their report.
I read more about diffluence than Upper Level Low because Convergence, Divergence and Diffluence all required some serious brain power to understand their basic differences. I'll go back to Upper Level Low soon, but for some reason my brief research led me to want to read more about diffluence.
Now, how the upper level low over South Texas and the upper level diffluence over the western gulf could possible change the forecast... I have not gotten their yet and going to rely on the experts.
I just want to know if I'm reading the report correctly. Opinions, corrections, thoughts or any advice on where to keep looking, classes/workshops etc I'm all ears.
AXNT20 KNHC 200005
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
GULF OF MEXICO...
The northern extent of a surface trough, the remnants of Isaac,
is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is
over the Yucatan Channel and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Weak
surface ridging is over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico with
axis along 28N.
In the upper levels an upper level low is centered over S Texas
near 28N98W. Upper level diffluence is over the W Gulf. Scattered
showers are from 20N-25N between 95W-98W. The remainder of the
Gulf has mostly fair weather.
High pressure will build over the eastern United
States through tonight, allowing gentle to moderate E to SE
breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas across the Gulf through Sun. A trough
over the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel will shift
westward across the south central Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula
through tonight, and across the southwest Gulf Thu and Fri, before