ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ronjon]

This is the one that has my eye on it. Long range models have persistently shown high pressure building in the wake of Florence over the western Atlantic/eastern US. If 92L slips underneath that high, it could be a caribbean or SE US threat down the road. Lots of time to watch though.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

gfs smoking crack with that wierd SW dip

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Waouw , looks like a a mix of a pronounced sw dip and west running... so 92L wants maybe to cruise towards the EC islands?

[chaser1]

Hmmm, I'm just way suspicious of the anticipated relative slow west (to WSW?) motion. Especially if this intensifies a good deal quicker than reaching T.S. at 60 hr.s. On another note, wasn't it the following anticipated wave that was feared to come out with a vengeance? Maybe i'm getting confused lol. Move over Invest 92L, it's gonna get crowded out there!!

[SoupBone]

I can't tell if it's 92L or not because of one that appears to go poof right in front of it, but if it's 92L, the 12Z GFS has 92L slowly moving N/NW at 240 hours.

[toad strangler]

I can't tell if it's 92L or not because of one that appears to go poof right in front of it, but if it's 92L, the 12Z GFS has 92L slowly moving N/NW at 240 hours.

92L is in the N Lesser Antilles as a weak vort signature. Just slipped past the Florence weakness.

[toad strangler]

Annnd the 12z GFS lets what left of 92L sneak into the Bahamas at mega fantasy range as what is a very weak wave

[SFLcane]

From what i can see most long range models show the magic trap door wide open for invest 92L to follow right in the foot steps of Florence. The latest GFS shreads it to pieces before reaching the islands

[bqknight]

From what i can see most long range models show the magic trap door wide open for invest 92L to follow right in the foot steps of Florence. The latest GFS shreads it to pieces before reaching the islands

Meanwhile, through 96 hours, the Euro has 92L stronger than it's last run. Model's aren't agreeing at all there.

FWIW, FV3 also keeps 92L intact.

[SFLcane]

From what i can see most long range models show the magic trap door wide open for invest 92L to follow right in the foot steps of Florence. The latest GFS shreads it to pieces before reaching the islands

Meanwhile, through 96 hours, the Euro has 92L stronger than it's last run. Model's aren't agreeing at all there.

FWIW, FV3 also keeps 92L intact.

Yep and with that intensity should have no problem recurving following Florence. Barely gets past 50w

[SoupBone]

At 240 hours on the 12Z Euro, it misses Florence's weakness and is headed toward what appears to the U.S. East Coast or taking a hook out to sea. But it definitely isn't heading toward the islands on this run. And look at the train behind it! Yikes.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro.

[Kazmit]

That's 4 potential storms, plus Florence! And they all seem to be following each other. A busy few weeks ahead.

[SoupBone]

[cycloneye]

18z GFS much more stronger and westward.

[Kazmit]

This GFS run looks like a bit of a fright for the islands.

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

Geez, GFS flip flops with Flo near CONUS as Cat 5 and 92L making run for Caribbean...

[SFLcane]

Luis iam with you 92L is the sleeper here..