ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SoupBone]

https://s22.postimg.cc/x6tuzi05t/storm_09_1.gif

Maybe the UKMET, CMC, and HWRF were onto something.

Yeap, perhaps they are up to something with the GFS now wanting to join them.

Crazy. It cuts it across the DR, then out to sea with a hard right hook. That would be one of the strangest solutions I've seen to date.

[gatorcane]

If Florence doesn’t meander offshore NC (which it probably won’t) creating the “mother of all weaknesses” and outflow then it probably would allow Isaac to get more west while staying in tact. So the GFS solution is suspect.

[HurricaneEric]

If Florence doesn’t meander offshore NC (which it probably won’t) cresting the “mother of all weaknesses” then it probably would allow Isaac to get more west. So the GFS solution is suspect.

Euro seems to have a better handle, or at least a more realistic solution track-wise. It seems the further west Florence gets, so too does Isaac.

I’m keeping an eye on Isaac just in case. 00z Euro from last night seems to think Florence ends up going more south and west after making landfall in the Carolinas. If Florence is a remnant low around GA/FL border, would that not create the weakness for Isaac to start it’s north turn further west around Jamaica and Cuba (possibly into SFL)? Notice the position of Florence as a remnant low on GA and the closed off low (a weak Isaac) position just NW of Jamaica.



Of course, the whole situation is complicated. NHC admits they don’t really have a good handle on Isaac. Bit of a wild card for sure.

[chaser1]

If Florence doesn’t meander offshore NC (which it probably won’t) creating the “mother of all weaknesses” and outflow then it probably would allow Isaac to get more west while staying in tact. So the GFS solution is suspect.

While I think Flo over the S.E. CONUS (FLONUS lol?) would in fact leave a gaping weakness to its south and east, I'm guessing that Issac might just be battered and tattered enough from Flo's outflow, dry air ingestion, and possibly land interaction.... that a much weaker reflection might scoot a tad further west before then getting pulled up and into the weakness. If a weaker Isaac is even a T.D. or whether downstream conditions even allow enough time for restrengthening would be another question altogether but I'd sort of doubt it.

[catskillfire51]

What confuses me is 95L makes it to Mexico or Texas, Florence gets stalled or into North Carolina but Isaac is able to escape?

[HurricaneEric]

GFS weakens Isaac in the short term but begins to strengthen it back to 989mb just south of Hispaniola. Looks bound to landfall there too...



EDIT: Aaaand it landfalls in Haiti. 1003mb TS.

[WeatherEmperor]

It somehow survives the mountain terrain of Hispanola and Cuba and skirts the north coast of Cuba heading WNW




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[AutoPenalti]

Could be an issue down the road, just going to have to wait and see.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFS has Isaac between south Florida and Cuba at 198 hours (8 days).
https://photos.app.goo.gl/5GUDGxiFwXx4WGUd8

[blp]

CMC first time keeps this into the gulf.

[wxGuy]

CMC first time keeps this into the gulf.

knew that was coming

[wxGuy]

I'ts almost like mother nature sends us these little telegrams before the big storms hit? think 95L

remember gordon? remember what occured before gordon? same scenario. Called a Rita type storm two months ago. It's coming folks.

[catskillfire51]

Gfs brings isaac into the gulf as well

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFS and CMC take Isaac through Cuba or FL straits and bring him into the Gulf of Mexico, seemingly Texas Bound. ICON makes Isaac a 970 mb hurricane in the NW Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and just south of Cuba. Composite of the three models:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/xnwsp9Wvu1Y7mdNA8

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS and CMC take Isaac through Cuba or FL straits and bring him into the Gulf of Mexico, seemingly Texas Bound. ICON makes Isaac a 970 mb hurricane in the NW Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and just south of Cuba. Composite of the three models:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/xnwsp9Wvu1Y7mdNA8

This storm might be a bigger issue than we think it is going to be.

[catskillfire51]

Especially if it follows whatever weather 95L brings to the Texas coast.

[hurricaneCW]

GFS and CMC take Isaac through Cuba or FL straits and bring him into the Gulf of Mexico, seemingly Texas Bound. ICON makes Isaac a 970 mb hurricane in the NW Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and just south of Cuba. Composite of the three models:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/xnwsp9Wvu1Y7mdNA8

This storm might be a bigger issue than we think it is going to be.

Peak season, models are holding on to him. Last year Harvey degenerated into a tropical wave and just days later ravaged TX as a Cat 4. If it weren't for Florence, then Isaac would definitely be on notice.

[Cpv17]

The central Caribbean seems to be a graveyard for tc’s over recent years, but watch out of it can make it to the W Caribbean or near the Bahamas. It could explode there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ensembles of the GFS bring Isaac over South Florida, and with a multi-model consensus between Gfs, CMC, and ICON for strong ridging, Isaac would likely cross Florida or go just south of the Florida and into the GOM with long range threats potentially to Texas or other parts of the Western Gulf of Mexico. Bears Watching for sure.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/NHzbvURgXaM4FSv18

[catskillfire51]

Euro is at 1 right? curious if all 4 show something