ATL: ISAAC - Models

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#41 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:46 pm

At 240 hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#42 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:00 pm

Euro & GFS seeing something crazy with Flo, she recurves, then blocked West, and then dips... Crazy tracks with these models, Flo & 92L going to keep us on edge. Seems when the models send Flo W results in 92L threatening NE Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#43 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:02 pm

From that position at 240 hours it begins to recurve and then moves north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#44 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:From that position at 240 hours it begins to recurve and then moves north.


Flo like a drain and drags everything in the Atlantic out to sea with her.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#45 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:16 pm

Blown Away wrote:
cycloneye wrote:From that position at 240 hours it begins to recurve and then moves north.


Flo like a drain and drags everything in the Atlantic out to sea with her.


After head butting and pile driving a strong ridge of course.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#46 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:14 pm

00z GFS trending stronger yet again with 92L, shows a hurricane in 5 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#47 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:59 pm

0Z long range GFS has 92L landfall in the Florida Keys and SW Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#48 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:00 am

Bocadude85 wrote:0Z long range GFS has 92L landfall in the Florida Keys and SW Florida.
the gfs looking for at least 3 landfalls on that run, euro and gfs keep the ridging in place which is a very dangerous setup as we saw last season
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#49 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:48 am

Very notable consistency of GFS and Euro with shifting track now thru the Carib.
IMHO, extrapolation leads me to believe this has a good chance to run thru the Yucatan channel and into the GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#50 Postby Wakeknight » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:02 am

The setup and potential for 92L, If it makes that Yucatán run is similar to Ivan...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#51 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:25 am

06z GFS says POOF
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#52 Postby Cypresso » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:14 am

Image

This may be the next one for the GOM to keep an eye on from what I am seeing so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#53 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:33 am

toad strangler wrote:06z GFS says POOF



Which is why we never hitch our wagon to any particular run or model this far out. :lol:

In other news, it continues to develop that system heading toward Texas, though now it's 3 days behind what it was yesterday.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#54 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:16 am

toad strangler wrote:06z GFS says POOF


Looks like it kills it just past 240 hrs south of Hispaniola.
355K PV looks conducive to support a TC then as well as an anti-cyclone overhead.
Only thing I see inhibiting it at this point is dry air forecasted for the W Carib.
West Carib dry, this time of year???
Wait and see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#55 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:35 am

12z GFS has a Hurricane threatening the Leewards.Let's see the rest of run how it goes.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#56 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:37 am

Enters Hebert box on the 12Z GFS. Can Florence's weakness turn this one safely out to sea?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#57 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:44 am

Hits the Virgin Islands this time. They do not need that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:47 am

Over Virgin Islands and just north of PR. VI dont need another one 2 years in a row.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#59 Postby HurricaneEric » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:48 am

Just NE of PR... I don’t think it’s feeling the weakness left by Florence just yet...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#60 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:51 am

It's finally recurving now, but could be a Bermuda threat.
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