ATL: ISAAC - Models

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#381 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:32 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.



Yes, the 12z Euro dissipates this near Jamaica
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#382 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:37 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.



This has been the Euro's solution for days with the exception of the previous run. The GFS still has me concerned.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#383 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:40 pm

Euro kills off Isaac, gfs brings it into the GOM. Lots of uncertainty, wait and see.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#384 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:43 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro kills off Isaac, gfs brings it into the GOM. Lots of uncertainty, wait and see.


The new GFS in testing killed it as well.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#385 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:47 pm

Considering Isaac is heading into the East Caribbean graveyard in a very weak state, I'd put the chances of it making it through alive fairly low. The Caribbean is a hostile place these days, and it's only worse for weak systems. I'd say long-term chances of it being a tropical cyclone in the Gulf/Western Caribbean are 20-30%.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#386 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:52 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro kills off Isaac, gfs brings it into the GOM. Lots of uncertainty, wait and see.


The new GFS in testing killed it as well.


Yep. FV3-GFS kills it. Lots of uncertainty still.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#387 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:02 pm

I wouldn’t put too much stock into that op run of the Euro. Let’s wait for the ensembles to come out.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#388 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:06 pm

euro does show votorcity getting into southern gom
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#389 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:08 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I wouldn’t put too much stock into that op run of the Euro. Let’s wait for the ensembles to come out.



If its current state of being is to be considered, the Euro run isn't far fetched. I guess he could always ramp up, but he looks like trash currently.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#390 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:11 pm

toad strangler wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.



Yes, the 12z Euro dissipates this near Jamaica

That’s good news!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#391 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:15 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro kills off Isaac, gfs brings it into the GOM. Lots of uncertainty, wait and see.

Maybe so but uncertainty is better than certainty we may have had if all the models develop it and are bullish. I’d take uncertainty if it means there’s a better chance it doesn’t develop since one of the main, dependable models doesn’t develop it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#392 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:19 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I wouldn’t put too much stock into that op run of the Euro. Let’s wait for the ensembles to come out.



If its current state of being is to be considered, the Euro run isn't far fetched. I guess he could always ramp up, but he looks like trash currently.


True, but Harvey looked like trash at one point too so you just never know. They’re sure fun to track though!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#393 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:22 pm

HWRF has a hurricane heading WNW into the bahamas. Plenty of land interaction

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#394 Postby blp » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:27 pm

I would not put too much stock in the operational Euro right now. Looking at the verification on Florence the GFS is outperforming the Euro. Actually, the Euro is not doing so well compared to other models. Also, the Euro has had trouble in the deep tropics with a small system like this in the past, don't know if that is fixed. I think it will continue to weaken but will find better conditions in the central and western Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#395 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:31 pm

Any sort of LLC going into the Caribbean in September needs to be watched closely regardless of ECMWF support.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#396 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:51 pm

Quite a spread in the 12Z ECMF Ensembles

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#397 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:04 pm

lol into central america now...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#398 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:06 pm

weaker it is in the Carrib towards yuc the more west it will go, if it strengthens like GFS had then could take right turn quick
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#399 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:14 pm

blp wrote:I would not put too much stock in the operational Euro right now. Looking at the verification on Florence the GFS is outperforming the Euro. Actually, the Euro is not doing so well compared to other models. Also, the Euro has had trouble in the deep tropics with a small system like this in the past, don't know if that is fixed. I think it will continue to weaken but will find better conditions in the central and western Caribbean.



All forecasts so far have been contrary to this though. What are you thinking will change?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#400 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:23 am

Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.

And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two. :double:
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