Kazmit wrote:It's finally recurving now, but could be a Bermuda threat.
It is recurving at 300+ hours, where model accuracy is not good.
ATL: ISAAC - Models
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
It is recurving at 300+ hours, where model accuracy is not good.
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
gatorcane wrote:Kazmit wrote:It's finally recurving now, but could be a Bermuda threat.
It is recurving at 300+ hours, where model accuracy is not good.
This. I believe many models showed Irma recurving way before FL this far out
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12z Euro goes west with a Hurricane.Let's see how the run ends.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
At 216, it hits the brakes and heads north. 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Up
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
the florence effect in actionSoupBone wrote:At 216, it hits the brakes and heads north.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12 EC has a low cutting off to its north and pulling it OTS. Still way too soon to determine if it's a random feature or not.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
SHIP is bullish.
* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922018 09/05/18 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 60 65 70 76 84
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 60 65 70 76 84
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 35 42 48 51 52 56 64
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 11 11 7 6 10 12 11 6 5 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 3 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 5 4 4
SHEAR DIR 84 84 75 74 65 91 168 214 240 273 314 25 44
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 133 129 125 121 120 118 120 122 128 133
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 130 126 121 117 112 111 111 114 116 123 127
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 65 66 67 64 65 60 55 51 52 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 14 16 16 17 17 19
850 MB ENV VOR 132 123 111 105 101 95 106 113 109 101 105 104 105
200 MB DIV 23 19 16 11 19 27 33 62 60 51 28 46 45
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 1181 1244 1297 1342 1390 1504 1632 1751 1934 2028 1803 1579 1392
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.2 15.5 14.2 13.0
LONG(DEG W) 28.1 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.4 31.5 32.7 33.8 35.5 37.4 39.6 41.2 42.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 9 11 10 10 7
HEAT CONTENT 8 11 12 11 9 3 0 0 0 0 8 6 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=619)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 28. 35. 40. 45. 51. 59.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 28.1
** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/05/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.68 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 17.1% 13.9% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.5% 13.9% 6.6% 3.0% 2.8% 11.5% 16.3% 13.1%
Bayesian: 0.4% 6.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 3.5%
Consensus: 2.9% 12.6% 7.2% 4.0% 0.9% 4.0% 9.2% 5.5%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/05/2018 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 60 65 70 76 84
18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 42 50 57 62 67 73 81
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 38 46 53 58 63 69 77
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 38 45 50 55 61 69
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922018 09/05/18 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 60 65 70 76 84
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 60 65 70 76 84
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 35 42 48 51 52 56 64
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 11 11 7 6 10 12 11 6 5 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 3 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 5 4 4
SHEAR DIR 84 84 75 74 65 91 168 214 240 273 314 25 44
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 133 129 125 121 120 118 120 122 128 133
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 130 126 121 117 112 111 111 114 116 123 127
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 65 66 67 64 65 60 55 51 52 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 14 16 16 17 17 19
850 MB ENV VOR 132 123 111 105 101 95 106 113 109 101 105 104 105
200 MB DIV 23 19 16 11 19 27 33 62 60 51 28 46 45
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 1181 1244 1297 1342 1390 1504 1632 1751 1934 2028 1803 1579 1392
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.2 15.5 14.2 13.0
LONG(DEG W) 28.1 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.4 31.5 32.7 33.8 35.5 37.4 39.6 41.2 42.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 9 11 10 10 7
HEAT CONTENT 8 11 12 11 9 3 0 0 0 0 8 6 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=619)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 28. 35. 40. 45. 51. 59.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 28.1
** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/05/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.68 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 17.1% 13.9% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.5% 13.9% 6.6% 3.0% 2.8% 11.5% 16.3% 13.1%
Bayesian: 0.4% 6.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 3.5%
Consensus: 2.9% 12.6% 7.2% 4.0% 0.9% 4.0% 9.2% 5.5%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/05/2018 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 60 65 70 76 84
18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 42 50 57 62 67 73 81
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 38 46 53 58 63 69 77
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 38 45 50 55 61 69
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Anyone has the 12z ensembles from GFS,UKMET and ECMWF for 92L?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the 12z ensembles from GFS,UKMET and ECMWF for 92L?
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
JPmia wrote:cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the 12z ensembles from GFS,UKMET and ECMWF for 92L?
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
Thanks for the link.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Ouch! Lets hope this does not happen
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
92L sneaks into very interesting position around the area of Puerto Rico. Then things get wonky with Florence sucking up everything in the basin with her as she exits the NE. Not so sure about all that.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
toad strangler wrote:92L sneaks into very interesting position around the area of Puerto Rico. Then things get wonky with Florence sucking up everything in the basin with her as she exits the NE. Not so sure about all that.
I agree toad Iam not buying 92L being yanked NE on a dime. Lots of time to watch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Initially, it looked like the 00z GFS was going to be less ominous than the 18z, and that 92L would miss the islands, but I'm not so sure now. We'll see shortly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
abajan wrote:Initially, it looked like the 00z GFS was going to be less ominous than the 18z, and that 92L would miss the islands, but I'm not so sure now. We'll see shortly.
At 174 it scrapes the Virgin Islands with 1007 pressure.
Last edited by SoupBone on Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
abajan wrote:Just a tad north of the last run, I think.
I finally see why it misses Florence's weakness. For about 30 hours (between hour 42-72), the GFS has it meandering around before moving west. Strange. Stranger even, the wave right behind it finds a way to gain latitude.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Looking at it in motion, I think that's 92L that then regenerates and heads toward Florida.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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