ATL: ISAAC - Models

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#341 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:22 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:No one mentioned the 00z Euro pulled Issac up thru FL as a TS..



Because more than likely it won’t happen and if it does just a rain maker, only way it gets going is it gets in the central gom..


Only way? Not too sure about that. Intensity forecasts are a huge headache.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#342 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:24 am

talking about how the pattern would be, would be tons of shear towards florida with florence and it would get picked up by the weakness really quick......
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#343 Postby wxGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:37 am

ICON 180 still has Isaac heading wnw
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#344 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:56 am



Not a reliable model to my knowledge. Euro has been spot on with Isaac thus far
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#345 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:58 am

caneman wrote:


Not a reliable model to my knowledge. Euro has been spot on with Isaac thus far

The last thing you want to see enter the GOM from that approach.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#346 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:32 am

The idea of Isaac dying out over the Caribbean is starting to loose support from the Euro ensembles, the trend continues

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#347 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:37 am

caneman wrote:


Not a reliable model to my knowledge. Euro has been spot on with Isaac thus far


Agreed. Just how bad do I think the ICON model is? My neighbor recently had to bury his cat that died. IMO that poor buried kitty can better forecast tropical cyclone track and intensity then the ICON model :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#348 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:38 am

NDG wrote:The idea of Isaac dying out over the Caribbean is starting to loose support from the Euro ensembles, the trend continues

https://i.imgur.com/Q9phnYe.png


For argument's sake, the GFS did the same thing, and was trending towards the track over Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, but then flopped back over towards a solution where it buried it near Belize. I guess we have a few more days to see if we can see some more consolidation of the models. Tick tock. :sun:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#349 Postby StPeteMike » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:41 am

Seeing all those plots heading towards Tampa Bay has me uneasy again. Guess it depends how fast Isaac moves and how much weakness in the ridge Florence creates on the exact track but Isaac has my attention...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#350 Postby wxGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:53 am

for more than a few runs now cmc still holds on to isaac
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#351 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:53 am

Watching Isaac Closely from St. Petersburg as well. The weakness created by Florence would pull a stronger cyclone into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The Euro also brings it into Southwest Florida. Going to be a long week.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#352 Postby CourierPR » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:02 am

Let the parochial prognostications begin.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#353 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:31 am

CourierPR wrote:Let the parochial prognostications begin.



We're within less than 30 hours from this system impacting the islands, and around 72 hours from one of the (western run vs GoM) solutions to begin panning out. It's not like we're 10 days out.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#354 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:41 am

CourierPR wrote:Let the parochial prognostications begin.

Completely unnecessary comment. I am aware the forecasts can change, Isaac can be ripped to shreds, never redevelop and go into Central America. It could go to Texas. But we come here to discuss the possibilities and the euro and what its ensembles show is what I’m paying attention to considering it’s proximity to Florida.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#355 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:46 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
CourierPR wrote:Let the parochial prognostications begin.

Completely unnecessary comment. I am aware the forecasts can change, Isaac can be ripped to shreds, never redevelop and go into Central America. It could go to Texas. But we come here to discuss the possibilities and the euro and what is ensembles show is what I’m paying attention to considering it’s proximity to Florida.



all depends what florence does
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#356 Postby stormchazer » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:54 am

CourierPR wrote:Let the parochial prognostications begin.


Let the judgmental smart aleck comments begin which adds nothing to model discussions.

As everyone looks towards Florence, as they should, it’s interesting how it not only will impact the strike area, but what impacts will have on Isaac, as well as Invest 95L. Long days ahead.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#357 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:00 am

12Z GFS - night and day stronger

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#358 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:06 am

Just one run, but wow what a difference.... hopefully a fluke

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#359 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:12 am

The pattern in 12z GFS would support a US landfall if it verfies.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#360 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:18 am

The GFS has flip flopped a bit, but I don't recall it doing what this run shows yet, at least as far as intensity.
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