WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#861 Postby Joe_1 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:24 am

mrbagyo wrote:https://imageshack.com/a/img924/9334/OlvshB.png

Not looking good for Macau


About 5.2 m or 17 feet for those still on the imperial system. Big probs for low lying sea level areas
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#862 Postby Laurie » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:49 am

Joe_1 wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:https://imageshack.com/a/img924/9334/OlvshB.png

Not looking good for Macau


About 5.2 m or 17 feet for those still on the imperial system. Big probs for low lying sea level areas


Victoria Harbor looked like the ocean. The waves were incredible. Flooding over the wall behind the Kerry Hotel.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#863 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:06 am

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#864 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:22 am

Incredible. First time i've seen the videos of this. Super strong! Looks like it was underestimated...
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#865 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:27 am

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#866 Postby TorSkk » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:34 am



It's fake, old video from 2015
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#867 Postby NotoSans » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:44 am



This is a video for Typhoon Muidage.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#868 Postby NotoSans » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:11 am

The major roads and railways in Hong Kong are all blocked by collapsed trees. Even if the No.10 Hurricane Signal has been lowered, there's still major problem going on with the Hong Kong transport right now.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#869 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:52 am

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#870 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:53 am

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#871 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:28 am

Just called my grandma in Shenzhen. She said all windows were blown off and everything in the home became a mess. She lives at 10th floor on a high rise apartment. Thankfully she is okay. The city is surrounded by mountains that usually block the most intense winds from typhoons yet still experienced hell. Can't imagine how bad things are in Hong Kong.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#872 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:51 am

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#873 Postby Macrocane » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:09 am

It seems that the agencies underestimated Mangkhut intensity, and I don't blame them, it looked ragged in satellite. Wish we could have recon in the WPAC.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#874 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:18 am

Worth noting that there was pretty big disagreement between the AMSU and ATMS intensity estimates while over the South China Sea (black circle). I also want to point out how consistent the microwave intensity estimates were for the several days prior to Luzon landfall (along/under green line). This is possibly a big win for microwave intensity estimates in intense tropical cyclones.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#875 Postby NotoSans » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:30 am

Sustained hurricane-force winds were recorded by various weather stations (most of them being outlying islands or elevated areas) in Hong Kong, and the data are as follows:

Tate's Cairn (587m above sea level): 102.2 knots
Waglan Island (83m above sea level): 97.0 knots
Cheung Chau (98m above sea level): 89.2 knots
Cheung Chau Beach (27m above sea level): 85.7 knots
Tai Mei Tuk (71m above sea level): 82.4 knots
Green Island (107m above sea level): 77.8 knots
Hong Kong Sea School (22m above sea level): 66.5 knots

Overall, Hong Kong was affected by sustained storm-force to hurricane-force winds for around 6 hours, and the wind data recorded are the highest since Typhoon Ellen in 1983.

Storm surge was also very significant in Hong Kong. Tai Po Kau recorded a maximum tidal height of 4.69m above chart datum (second highest on record) and a storm surge of 3.38m (highest on record). Quarry Bay also had a record storm surge of 2.26m. Overall, the storm surge was as significant as Typhoon Hato last year. Fortunately, Typhoon Mangkhut did not coincide with the astronomical high tides; otherwise, the storm surge would be way more significant.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Tropical Storm

#876 Postby NotoSans » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:50 pm

Adjusting the surface observations mentioned in the post above based on the vertical wind profile obtained from dropsondes, the maximum sustained winds affecting Hong Kong were likely around 75 to 80 knots (10-minute average).

It is worth mentioning that the maximum winds seemed to be displaced well away from the center due to the ERC, and weather stations affected by the inner eye did not record winds as high as those affected by the outer one. Thus, I would argue that surface observations in Hong Kong are representative of the maximum intensity of MANGKHUT.

As a side note, minimal pressure recorded near the landfall area was around 960 mb, which was also consistent with a low-end category 2 intensity.

Again, what makes MANGKHUT particularly dangerous was its expansive wind field, which caused Hong Kong to be affected by high winds for a long period of time and also led to significant storm surge.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Severe Tropical Storm

#877 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:50 pm

That's about 85-91 kt for those more accustomed to 1 minute sustained winds when using the standard 0.88 conversion.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#878 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:05 pm

Macrocane wrote:It seems that the agencies underestimated Mangkhut intensity, and I don't blame them, it looked ragged in satellite. Wish we could have recon in the WPAC.


Prove that looks aren't everything. Damn this caught everyone off guard. Much stronger than they thought in those areas.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Severe Tropical Storm

#879 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:08 pm

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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon

#880 Postby NotoSans » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:06 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Macrocane wrote:It seems that the agencies underestimated Mangkhut intensity, and I don't blame them, it looked ragged in satellite. Wish we could have recon in the WPAC.


Prove that looks aren't everything. Damn this caught everyone off guard. Much stronger than they thought in those areas.


Hong Kong is VERY well-prepared for this storm. The government has even initiated evacuation plans for low-lying areas due to the potential storm surge, which was never seen before. The intensity forecast all showed a stronger storm than the reality.
Last edited by NotoSans on Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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