WPAC: BARIJAT - Tropical Storm

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WPAC: BARIJAT - Tropical Storm

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:33 am

90W INVEST 180906 0000 13.3N 119.0E WPAC 15 0

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Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:41 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:08 am

Big hit for Hainan as per EURO.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:56 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.6N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060149Z 89GHZ MHS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL POCKETS
OF SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION. A 060110Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
PHILIPPINES BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT AFTER THE SYSTEM
EMERGES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AND
INTENSIFY
. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:59 am

Image

Rotation is more obvious on SWIR
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:37 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:36 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:40 pm

Pretty stark track divergence between American and European guidance with the former sending 90W north towards the Ryukyus and the latter sending the system west through the South China Sea.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:43 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 119.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY
20 NM SOUTH OF MANILLA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 061747Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES BUT ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT AS TO IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FURTHER. SOME
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT AFTER THE SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:49 am

Expected to emerge into the Luzon Strait. GFS and ECMWF develop this further on the next few days.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:10 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.4N 121.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.1E, APPROXIMATELY
60 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070127Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER LAND IN THE
PHILIPPINES, WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEAS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD LATERAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:30 am

Both EURO and GFS shifted north now has the former crashing into Taiwan with little to no development while the latter sideswipes Yaeyama and into China.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:24 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
120.E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 120.7E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 072210Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 080208Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 15
KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG
WITH NO DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODELS SHOW 90W SLOWLY
DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:49 am

EURO still seeing a weak TS forming out of this.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#14 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:05 am

You can definitely see the cyclonic motion onthe Taiwan radar

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:46 am

Lo and behold, this sleeper system is now consolidating its convection around its cloudless center.
This is now a tropical depression based on JMA's 12z Surface chart. I won't be surprised if we see a "Barijat" out of this system tomorrow.

Image

Image

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:56 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 22.2N 122.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.0N 120.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.1E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
ABOVE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN
ADDITION, A 081653Z 88.2GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE,
FRAGMENTARY BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM STAYING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP, THEN HEADING WESTWARD TOWARDS HAINAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091930Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:55 am

Circulation appears to be still quite elongated on the latest ASCAT pass.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:34 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.9N 122.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 122.7E, APPROXIMATELY
413 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING BUT EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 090145Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
THE IMPROVING LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20
KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28-30 DEGREE CELSIUS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY AND EVENTUALLY TRACKING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby NotoSans » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:11 pm

Numerical models have definitely trended stronger over the past several runs. I expect JMA to have advisories on this system soon.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:16 pm

JTWC appears to be renumbering.

27W INVEST 180909 1800 21.9N 122.6E WPAC 25 1005
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