ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#41 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:39 pm

It's a race between this and TD 9 to be named Helene. I think this will get there first.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#42 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:41 pm

Kazmit wrote:It's a race between this and TD 9 to be named Helene. I think this will get there first.


I am going to make a quick poll at Talking Tropics shortly.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:53 pm

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located just west of the coast of Africa has
developed into a tropical depression. Conventional satellite
imagery shows a well-defined convective band has formed near the
center, and microwave satellite imagery has hinted at the formation
of an inner ring of convection. The initial intensity of 30 kt
and the central pressure of 1002 mb are based on surface
observations from ships and the west coast of Africa. The depression
currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 275/9. During the next 3-4 days, the cyclone
should move generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward
speed on the south side of the subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. Near the end of the forecast period, a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to weaken
the ridge and allow the cyclone to turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed. There is some spread in the guidance
late in the period, with the UKMET and the Canadian models showing
an earlier turn than the other models. The new forecast track,
which is similar to the previous track, is in best agreement with
the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The depression is in an environment of light to moderate easterly
vertical shear and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C. This
should allow at least steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening
is possible based on the hints of the inner core in microwave
imagery. This portion of the intensity forecast has been increased
to the upper edge of the intensity guidance, with the cyclone
forecast to become a tropical storm in 12 h or less and a hurricane
between 48-72 h. After 72 h, the system should be over sea surface
temperatures near 26C and encountering southwesterly vertical shear
due to the aforementioned trough. This should cause at least a
gradual weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.2N 18.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.5N 19.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 13.9N 21.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.4N 24.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 14.9N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 16.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 18.0N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#44 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:56 pm

Is forecast to become a Hurricane.

72H 10/1800Z 16.5N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 18.0N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#45 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:56 pm

Boom, two depressions at the same time! Though, it bothers me slightly that this one is 8 while the one that became an invest earlier is 9. I'm going to mix the two up frequently until they get named.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Advisories

#46 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:10 pm

StormClouds63 wrote:So Number 8 will be Helene, and Number 9 to be Isaac? Just checking.


Depends on which one becomes a TS first.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#47 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:19 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Boom, two depressions at the same time! Though, it bothers me slightly that this one is 8 while the one that became an invest earlier is 9. I'm going to mix the two up frequently until they get named.


You'll probably continue to even after as TD8 looks like it'll become a storm first. :lol:
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#48 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:28 pm

It might be a bit of an adjustment after all this time thinking of former 92L as the future Helene, since it looks like Helene will be the other one. :lol:
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#49 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:50 pm

This will please those who voted in the poll for TD 8 to become Helene...

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1038208060207050759


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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
800 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 19.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago, Fogo, and Brava
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#51 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:42 pm

Well,unless there is more data in 2 hours,it will remain as TD per 00z Best Track.

AL, 08, 2018090800, , BEST, 0, 135N, 186W, 30, 1002, TD
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#52 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:04 pm

Not sure why the best track has it at 30 knots when there are ASCAT winds of up to 35-40 knots.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#53 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:22 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Not sure why the best track has it at 30 knots when there are ASCAT winds of up to 35-40 knots.


Same reason Hector or Jose wasn't upgraded to a cat5. :oops:
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#54 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 18.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#55 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:46 pm

Not sure why they went so low on the winds, ASCAT supported at least 40kt.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories

#56 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 18.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

A very timely ASCAT pass indicated that the winds associated with
the depression have increased to 35 kt, and also that the center was
a little east of the location previously indicated. This is very
common in systems during the formative stage. Based on the ASCAT
data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene, the
eighth named storm of the season. The satellite presentation has
also improved during the past several hours, and now the cyclone has
large cyclonically curved convective bands to the south of the
center. The outflow is fair in all quadrants.

Helene will be moving over warm waters and within an environment
of light shear through the next 3 to 4 days, and most of the
guidance responds to that environment by gradually strengthening the
cyclone. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the intensity
consensus, and brings Helene to hurricane intensity in about 3 days.

Currently, Helene is embedded within a southwest monsoon-type flow,
and is moving toward the west at about 9 or 10 knots. However, as
the cyclone moves away from the African coast, it will become
steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge and should
then increase in forward speed. Most of the track models are in
extremely good agreement, at least for the next 3 days when the
confidence in the forecast is high. At the long range, a mid-level
trough is expected to develop over the central Atlantic, forcing the
cyclone to turn more to the northwest and even north later on. The
NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and basically
on top of the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.6N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 13.8N 19.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 14.8N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 15.4N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 17.0N 33.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 18.5N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 20.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:49 pm

Hammy wrote:Not sure why they went so low on the winds, ASCAT supported at least 40kt.


Don't they have satellite and radar from the CV islands to help with that.

Don't we have an Air Force Base in North Africa that we could send Recon too? Send a flight from Miami to Africa doing dropsondes on the way.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#58 Postby tomatkins » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:58 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Hammy wrote:Not sure why they went so low on the winds, ASCAT supported at least 40kt.


Don't they have satellite and radar from the CV islands to help with that.

Don't we have an Air Force Base in North Africa that we could send Recon too? Send a flight from Miami to Africa doing dropsondes on the way.


Thats a long ass flight to measure a storm that wont meaningfully impact land after Sunday for a week (and probably never). All just to get it declared a TS a few hours early?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#59 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:04 pm

tomatkins wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Hammy wrote:Not sure why they went so low on the winds, ASCAT supported at least 40kt.


Don't they have satellite and radar from the CV islands to help with that.

Don't we have an Air Force Base in North Africa that we could send Recon too? Send a flight from Miami to Africa doing dropsondes on the way.


Thats a long ass flight to measure a storm that wont meaningfully impact land after Sunday for a week (and probably never). All just to get it declared a TS a few hours early?


It's already a TS, and if they would do it they would get so much valuable data that could be put into the computers. It would help with all the storms out there right now. Also Helene will be hitting landfall in the next 36 hours.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:07 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...HELENE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 19.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Helene's structure appears to be quickly improving this morning.
The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a blend
of the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and the
UW-CIMSS SATCON. Several microwave passes overnight indicate that
the cyclone has become more vertically aligned, likely due to a
reformation of the center beneath the strongest convection. In
fact, a 0733 UTC SSMIS image shows the early development of a low-
to mid-level eye, which is often a precursor to intensification.

Nearly all of the intensity guidance seems to have picked up on the
improved structure of Helene, and the models show far more
intensification than before, especially through 48 h. Consequently,
a significant change has been made to the intensity forecast, which
now calls for Helene to become a hurricane on Sunday while it is
near the Cabo Verde islands. Once the cyclone passes the islands,
the environment is expected to remain favorable for intensification
for at least 72 h. By the end of the forecast period, all of the
guidance shows some weakening due primarily to increased shear
associated with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the
central Atlantic. Given the recent microwave imagery signature, low
shear, and warm SSTs, its possible that the current forecast is
still too conservative, especially for the first 36 h of the
forecast, and further adjustments could be required if it becomes
clear that Helene is intensifying at a faster rate than expected.

Smoothing through the possible reformation of the center, Helene
appears to be moving west with an initial motion around 275/10 kt.
Little change was required to the track forecast, which has been
nudged only slightly south for the first 48 h of the forecast, in
line with the latest track model consensus. A westward motion
should continue for the next couple of days, as Helene is steered
by a mid-level ridge to the north. By day 5, the aforementioned
trough over the central Atlantic should force Helene to turn toward
the northwest.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.7N 19.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 13.9N 21.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 14.1N 23.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.7N 26.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 15.4N 29.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 17.2N 35.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 19.0N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 22.0N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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