ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#201 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:11 pm

Looks like this thing is really trying to get get going. I'm noticing a broad circulation and intensifying rain in what appears to be the center.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#202 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:11 pm

Image
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#203 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:16 pm

wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Actually, if it continues on its current track and remains weak, it would bring beneficial rain to the areas where it's heading. Hopefully, it remains weak, and slowly provides that area with relief.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1218
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#204 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:20 pm

SoupBone wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Actually, if it continues on its current track and remains weak, it would bring beneficial rain to the areas where it's heading. Hopefully, it remains weak, and slowly provides that area with relief.


Very true. Like you say, as long as it remains weak and heads for Mexico or South Texas. Hopefully it doesn't track more into LA/MS coastal areas, but it doesn't seem on track to do that. But the U.S. definitely doesn't need another area of wind and surge damage to deal with.
1 likes   

jaguars_22
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#205 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:23 pm

Its moving fast it looks like... It just doesnt have time to develop! They may change it to depression right before landfall just to do it :) Most of the convection is south of center?
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#206 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:26 pm

2 PM TWO:

1. A weak low pressure center has formed a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms in association with this system have become more
numerous today. While upper-level winds are generally conducive for
development of a tropical depression, the system only has about a
day before it reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
low. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas on Friday
and Saturday. Interests there should monitor the progress of this
system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9793
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#207 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:2 PM TWO:

1. A weak low pressure center has formed a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms in association with this system have become more
numerous today. While upper-level winds are generally conducive for
development of a tropical depression, the system only has about a
day before it reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
low. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas on Friday
and Saturday. Interests there should monitor the progress of this
system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


There is a plane on its way to investigate 95l
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8069
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#208 Postby jasons2k » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:13 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I'm guessing landfall will be mexico... Where do you have the center located? Jason?


It's hard to tell, as it's obscured so much by the clouds and cirrus shield. Let's wait 'till recon tells us - it won't be long now.
1 likes   

jaguars_22
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 493
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#209 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:30 pm

This thing is expanding in size and looks like its slowing down. I think the center is further south
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#210 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:31 pm

HH reported 1010mb and did find a wind shift.
4 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#211 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:36 pm

Just a broad, weak area of low pressure. No inflow, not too much chance of it developing into a TS before it moves into south TX tomorrow morning. Just a rainfall event for Texas.
5 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#212 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Just a broad, weak area of low pressure. No inflow, not too much chance of it developing into a TS before it moves into south TX tomorrow morning. Just a rainfall event for Texas.


Don't think this lets you off the hook for your comments in the Winter thread. It's coming!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Audrey2Katrina
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4235
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2005 10:39 pm
Location: Metaire, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#213 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:51 pm

wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K
0 likes   
Flossy 56, Audrey 57, Hilda 64*, Betsy 65*, Camille 69*, Edith 71, Carmen 74, Bob 79, Danny, 85, Elena 85, Juan 85, Florence 88, Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#214 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:14 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K

Any storm that makes landfall in the united states counts as a landfall. End of story
1 likes   

User avatar
Audrey2Katrina
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4235
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2005 10:39 pm
Location: Metaire, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#215 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:18 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K

Any storm that makes landfall in the united states counts as a landfall. End of story


Kirk isn't even "born" yet... and the US Virgin Islands were OUTSIDE the WATCH area for Isaac.... that leaves two... End of Story!
0 likes   
Flossy 56, Audrey 57, Hilda 64*, Betsy 65*, Camille 69*, Edith 71, Carmen 74, Bob 79, Danny, 85, Elena 85, Juan 85, Florence 88, Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#216 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:34 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K


I assumed the fourth was Olivia in Hawaii.
5 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1218
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#217 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:44 pm

Hammy wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:
wx98 wrote:For the sake of science and stats, I'm pulling for Kirk, but it's really the last thing the United States needs. If this forms and hits the Gulf Coast it would be the 4th system in 10 days to landfall in the U.S. somewhere. :eek:


Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K


I assumed the fourth was Olivia in Hawaii.


It was, last I checked Hawaii was a state and Olivia made 2 landfalls there.
2 likes   

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1218
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#218 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:46 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Okay, you'll have this one (which I honestly think will never be strong enough for a name; A minimal storm in Gordon, and a once major in Florence... that "would be" three in the last 10 days... I'm not sure what the alleged fourth system is. Are you counting the US Virgin Islands and Isaac? really the only system of consequence (as systems go) among all of them is Florence. Last year was MUCH worse than this year-- and hopefully it stays that way!

A2K

Any storm that makes landfall in the united states counts as a landfall. End of story


Kirk isn't even "born" yet... and the US Virgin Islands were OUTSIDE the WATCH area for Isaac.... that leaves two... End of Story!


There was Gordon, Olivia in Hawaii, Florence will be 3, and if this forms it will be 4. No one was talking about Isaac. Please try to remember Hawaii is also a state.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#219 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:39 pm

Chances aren't looking higher than about 20% for me that this forms--it looked barely closed to the NW earlier but isn't now.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1218
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#220 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:53 pm

Hammy wrote:Chances aren't looking higher than about 20% for me that this forms--it looked barely closed to the NW earlier but isn't now.


Agreed, looking pretty disorganized atm
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests