ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

So what is the spin inland over S Texas and how will it affect 95L? I have doubts this will go as far south as TX/MX border.

Nice loop...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[Steve]

So what is the spin inland over S Texas and how will it affect 95L? I have doubts this will go as far south as TX/MX border.

Nice loop...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

I think it's a combination of a front with surface low and then a stalled TW in the SW Gulf. Pattern (actual weather anyway) has been similar been there for several days interrupting and cooling summer a bit for the coast. Front was farther back the last few days, but here's the latest surface depictions I could find:
http://weather.unisys.com/current-weather/surface-data

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/ussatsfc.gif

https://www.weather.gov/crp/observations

[SoupBone]

So what is the spin inland over S Texas and how will it affect 95L? I have doubts this will go as far south as TX/MX border.

Nice loop...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

I think it's a combination of a front with surface low and then a stalled TW in the SW Gulf. Pattern (actual weather anyway) has been similar been there for several days interrupting and cooling summer a bit for the coast. Front was farther back the last few days, but here's the latest surface depictions I could find:
http://weather.unisys.com/current-weather/surface-data

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/ussatsfc.gif

https://www.weather.gov/crp/observations

Yeah it's crept closer to the coast over the last few days, but not by much. Good question is how, if at all, will this affect steering? Is it supposed to move back, which allows 95L to head inland?

[Cpv17]

I’m starting to believe that this won’t really be much of anything for SETX besides maybe 2-3” of rain for most parts.

[Sciencerocks]

LLC appears to be forming near 22.7/87.5

A depression could form within the next 12-24 hours
Tropical storm is pretty likely
Peak intensity around 45-50 knots
Texas is most likely. This northward development increases the chances of that.

[mcheer23]

LLC appears to be forming near 22.7/87.5

A depression could form within the next 12-24 hours
Tropical storm is pretty likely
Peak intensity around 45-50 knots
Texas is most likely. This northward development increases the chances of that.

https://imageshack.com/a/img923/551/r11v5d.gif

I agree. I have had a 60 mph TS between CC and Matagorda for 2 days.

[davidiowx]

I’m starting to believe that this won’t really be much of anything for SETX besides maybe 2-3” of rain for most parts.

What makes you think that? It looks like it is organizing and the odds of it being a lopsided system are higher than not. Especially if it stays a TS or minimal hurricane. That would put SE TX on the dirty side of the system...

[Cpv17]

LLC appears to be forming near 22.7/87.5

A depression could form within the next 12-24 hours
Tropical storm is pretty likely
Peak intensity around 45-50 knots
Texas is most likely. This northward development increases the chances of that.

https://imageshack.com/a/img923/551/r11v5d.gif

I agree. I have had a 60 mph TS between CC and Matagorda for 2 days.

Rockport is right in the middle of that. That would be crazy. 2 years in a row with a landfalling system.

[SoupBone]

I’m starting to believe that this won’t really be much of anything for SETX besides maybe 2-3” of rain for most parts.

Our discussions this afternoon focused on this component, and our guys said that they don't believe that the moisture content will be beyond what I posted earlier (2-4") in most places with isolated higher amounts from 6-8". The things about a TS though, is that with saturated ground in some areas, you'll have some tree toppling along with the concern of localized flooding in some areas.

[stormlover2013]

matagorda bay huh, that's gutsy

[Stormcenter]

Tough to make any call on landfall or rain potential
when you don’t even have an organized system yet.
Just look how the models are changing with Flo right now.

[Cpv17]

matagorda bay huh, that's gutsy

If it made it that far north it would probably be a bit more stronger and would bring much more wind and rain into our region for sure. I don’t see it making it that far north though. Corpus area looks like a safe bet as of now.

[Stormcenter]

matagorda bay huh, that's gutsy

If it made it that far north it would probably be a bit more stronger and would bring much more wind and rain into our region for sure. I don’t see it making it that far north though. Corpus area looks like a safe bet as of now.

It’s already further north than anyone anticipated.

[SoupBone]

7 Day Rainfall Outlook

[GumboCane83]

Does anyone see the jog north? SE-TX and SE-LA?

[stormlover2013]

i don't see it jogging that far north

[Nimbus]

Thought we were looking at a mid level feature that hopped north over the Yucatan but there does seem to be cyclonic motion in the low level clouds now as well. If it moves pretty fast and doesn't organize very well shouldn't be too bad except where a couple inches of rain can flood.

[jaguars_22]

How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15

[artist]

How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15

We don’t know yet.

[Steve]

How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15

Whatever the distance from where it is now til about 10:00am Friday when NAM has "it" reaching shore. Think this will be Joyce by then, but we'll see.