ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#101 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:29 pm

So what is the spin inland over S Texas and how will it affect 95L? I have doubts this will go as far south as TX/MX border.

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Steve
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#102 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Stormcenter wrote:So what is the spin inland over S Texas and how will it affect 95L? I have doubts this will go as far south as TX/MX border.



I think it's a combination of a front with surface low and then a stalled TW in the SW Gulf. Pattern (actual weather anyway) has been similar been there for several days interrupting and cooling summer a bit for the coast. Front was farther back the last few days, but here's the latest surface depictions I could find:
http://weather.unisys.com/current-weather/surface-data

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/ussatsfc.gif

https://www.weather.gov/crp/observations
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#103 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:50 pm

Steve wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:So what is the spin inland over S Texas and how will it affect 95L? I have doubts this will go as far south as TX/MX border.



I think it's a combination of a front with surface low and then a stalled TW in the SW Gulf. Pattern (actual weather anyway) has been similar been there for several days interrupting and cooling summer a bit for the coast. Front was farther back the last few days, but here's the latest surface depictions I could find:
http://weather.unisys.com/current-weather/surface-data

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/ussatsfc.gif

https://www.weather.gov/crp/observations


Yeah it's crept closer to the coast over the last few days, but not by much. Good question is how, if at all, will this affect steering? Is it supposed to move back, which allows 95L to head inland?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#104 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:11 pm

I’m starting to believe that this won’t really be much of anything for SETX besides maybe 2-3” of rain for most parts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#105 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:12 pm

LLC appears to be forming near 22.7/87.5

A depression could form within the next 12-24 hours
Tropical storm is pretty likely
Peak intensity around 45-50 knots
Texas is most likely. This northward development increases the chances of that.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#106 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:14 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:LLC appears to be forming near 22.7/87.5

A depression could form within the next 12-24 hours
Tropical storm is pretty likely
Peak intensity around 45-50 knots
Texas is most likely. This northward development increases the chances of that.

https://imageshack.com/a/img923/551/r11v5d.gif



I agree. I have had a 60 mph TS between CC and Matagorda for 2 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#107 Postby davidiowx » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:21 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I’m starting to believe that this won’t really be much of anything for SETX besides maybe 2-3” of rain for most parts.


What makes you think that? It looks like it is organizing and the odds of it being a lopsided system are higher than not. Especially if it stays a TS or minimal hurricane. That would put SE TX on the dirty side of the system...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#108 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:22 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:LLC appears to be forming near 22.7/87.5

A depression could form within the next 12-24 hours
Tropical storm is pretty likely
Peak intensity around 45-50 knots
Texas is most likely. This northward development increases the chances of that.

https://imageshack.com/a/img923/551/r11v5d.gif



I agree. I have had a 60 mph TS between CC and Matagorda for 2 days.


Rockport is right in the middle of that. That would be crazy. 2 years in a row with a landfalling system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#109 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:22 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I’m starting to believe that this won’t really be much of anything for SETX besides maybe 2-3” of rain for most parts.


Our discussions this afternoon focused on this component, and our guys said that they don't believe that the moisture content will be beyond what I posted earlier (2-4") in most places with isolated higher amounts from 6-8". The things about a TS though, is that with saturated ground in some areas, you'll have some tree toppling along with the concern of localized flooding in some areas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#110 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:22 pm

matagorda bay huh, that's gutsy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#111 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:28 pm

Tough to make any call on landfall or rain potential
when you don’t even have an organized system yet.
Just look how the models are changing with Flo right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#112 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:29 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:matagorda bay huh, that's gutsy


If it made it that far north it would probably be a bit more stronger and would bring much more wind and rain into our region for sure. I don’t see it making it that far north though. Corpus area looks like a safe bet as of now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#113 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:matagorda bay huh, that's gutsy


If it made it that far north it would probably be a bit more stronger and would bring much more wind and rain into our region for sure. I don’t see it making it that far north though. Corpus area looks like a safe bet as of now.


It’s already further north than anyone anticipated.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#114 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:33 pm

7 Day Rainfall Outlook

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#115 Postby GumboCane83 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:34 pm

Does anyone see the jog north? SE-TX and SE-LA?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#116 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:34 pm

i don't see it jogging that far north
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#117 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:35 pm

Thought we were looking at a mid level feature that hopped north over the Yucatan but there does seem to be cyclonic motion in the low level clouds now as well. If it moves pretty fast and doesn't organize very well shouldn't be too bad except where a couple inches of rain can flood.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#118 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:38 pm

How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#119 Postby artist » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:44 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15

We don’t know yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#120 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:50 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15


Whatever the distance from where it is now til about 10:00am Friday when NAM has "it" reaching shore. Think this will be Joyce by then, but we'll see.
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