ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion: 2 PM TWO: 20%/50%

#21 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:21 pm

This is getting organized a little faster than expected.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#22 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:27 pm

Interesting days ahead. Season starting to get rather sinister :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#23 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:31 pm

Euro is a bit further south on landfall. Rainy regardless.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#24 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:34 pm

lot can change still 4 days to go and it does look like its organizing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#25 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:36 pm

Updated Euro Precip Forecast

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#26 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:38 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:lot can change still 4 days to go and it does look like its organizing.



No doubt. If this does turn into anything more from rain standpoint, the Euro would be the most beneficial to the state. Houston doesn't need any more rain right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#27 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:39 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#28 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:42 pm

Side Conversation:
What's interesting is that the Euro has Isaac still out there, heading toward Belize but then loses it at 192. Hmm...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#29 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:52 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#30 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:56 pm

SoupBone wrote:Is it just me or is there a rotation right on top of Laredo?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Big_Bend-01-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined


looks like rotation to me, and looks to be heading south...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#31 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:01 pm

Satellite shows a broad rotation with possibly a few different vort maxes rotating around. Land friction is helping to tighten this up a bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#32 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:03 pm

SoupBone wrote:Side Conversation:
What's interesting is that the Euro has Isaac still out there, heading toward Belize but then loses it at 192. Hmm...


Looks to me like Isaac washes out near E Cuba on the 12z Euro

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#33 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:07 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Side Conversation:
What's interesting is that the Euro has Isaac still out there, heading toward Belize but then loses it at 192. Hmm...


Looks to me like Isaac washes out near E Cuba on the 12z Euro


yeah, I should have let the run finish.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#34 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:22 pm

SoupBone wrote:Updated Euro Precip Forecast

Image


That’s not very much rain on the Euro for SETX. 2-3”? I doubt that’s correct.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#35 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:26 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Updated Euro Precip Forecast


That’s not very much rain on the Euro for SETX. 2-3”? I doubt that’s correct.


The Euro has it coming in further south. Houston would get 4" on that run. NW of Corpus would get 18+"

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#36 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:31 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Updated Euro Precip Forecast


That’s not very much rain on the Euro for SETX. 2-3”? I doubt that’s correct.


The Euro has it coming in further south. Houston would get 4" on that run. NW of Corpus would get 18+"

Image


I also believe that a lot of the heavier precipitation will be well north and east of the center because of shear. Like a lopsided system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#37 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:34 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
That’s not very much rain on the Euro for SETX. 2-3”? I doubt that’s correct.


The Euro has it coming in further south. Houston would get 4" on that run. NW of Corpus would get 18+"


I also believe that a lot of the heavier precipitation will be well north and east of the center because of shear. Like a lopsided system.


Landfall on this run would be around Baffin Bay, so the NE would be right in that area. This run is a good bit south of the previous Euro. I guess enough to make the rainfall estimates shift.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#38 Postby wxman22 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:37 pm

Yeah, rainfall amounts and locations depicted by the models should be taken with a grain of salt until we actually have a tropical cyclone for models to analyze.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#39 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:38 pm

wxman22 wrote:Yeah, rainfall amounts and locations depicted by the models should be taken with a grain of salt until we actually have a tropical cyclone for models to analyze.


I don't disagree, but this is a discussion thread. I mean it's not like there are any other systems to talk about. :lol:

Plus, this system is only several days from impacting Texas. It's not like we're 10 days out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#40 Postby oldframe » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:38 pm

NWS Houston video update on the current flash flood watch and potential tropical development



Link: https://youtu.be/Yj22HzXbOXg
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