ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Frank P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#41 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:08 pm

sure looks like a mid level trying to spin up off the western tip of Cuba in the channel on the latest sat loops this afternoon

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#42 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:28 pm

Not buying anything yet with 95l...will much better guidance on Wednesday.

Isaac scares..the ones that die off and reform are scary
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#43 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:33 pm

Whatever is winding up in the NW Caribbean looks like it's doing it pretty quickly and further north.

Looks impressive IMO.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

Frank P wrote:sure looks like a mid level trying to spin up off the western tip of Cuba in the channel on the latest sat loops this afternoon

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#44 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:37 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Whatever is winding up in the NW Caribbean looks like it's doing it pretty quickly and further north.

Looks impressive IMO.


Frank P wrote:sure looks like a mid level trying to spin up off the western tip of Cuba in the channel on the latest sat loops this afternoon

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html


Yeah, gotta feel grateful that it’s under shear att... does look like it has had a more northerly component to it the last 24 hours or so, albeit some of that might be the result of the shear... impressive wave for sure..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#45 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:38 pm

The MLC will peel off near Cuba. Watch the surface reflection near Belize. That will be the dominant feature heading NW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#46 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:02 pm

Is 95l related to all the storms and cloud cover in south Florida right now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#47 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:04 pm

Yes

eastcoastFL wrote:Is 95l related to all the storms and cloud cover in south Florida right now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#48 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:52 pm

some serious convection firing off late this afternoon...

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#49 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:08 pm

Frank P wrote:some serious convection firing off late this afternoon...

Image


Do you have a shear map?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#50 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:26 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Not buying anything yet with 95l...will much better guidance on Wednesday.

Isaac scares..the ones that die off and reform are scary


I think you can almost book it that it will form. Just about all models close something off and get stronger as it’s coming in. RGEM probably has the strongest depiction and has it wound up pretty good at 1003 and falling as it comes into range at the end of the run (54 hours/Wed 7pm). Looks like it would landfall Thursday somewhere on the mid or South Texas Coast. FV3 probably shows the least.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=84

As for Isaac, I don’t know. Depends on the MJO in my opinion. Forecasts have been all over the map. NCEP has it actually going in the circle and hooking right back to 1. That could be indicative of favorable then not so favorable then favorable again. ECMWF has it also going back to the circle and looping back to 8. JMA does not agree and heads to 3. 3 is not usually favorable for most of the hemisphere, but there are always mini-spots that are enhanced. JMA does stay near the circle though so there’s not likely going to be any strong pattern amplification. We will see.

MJO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml
Last edited by Steve on Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#51 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:31 pm

Landfall of whatever forms is still highly questionable
IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:33 pm

8 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
western Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico are associated
with a surface trough and are showing some signs of organization.
This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited development. Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development later in
the week, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday
while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion: 8 PM TWO: 30%/60%

#53 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:51 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#54 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Frank P wrote:some serious convection firing off late this afternoon...

Image


Do you have a shear map?


You can get them on CIMSS. Shear is there compliments of the ULL around the northern tip of the Yucatán. As it pulls away, the eddy in the wake often gets an anticyclone/high building over top. It’s one of the ways to get home brew systems. I call this type of setup (when it happens) pattern reversal. Some other ways are old fronts or boundaries or when a complex drops in the Gulf from the US. You will be able to see it happening best on Water Vapor. If it works out, look for conditions improving late Wed into Thursday and if the ULL moves away quicker, all the way into landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#55 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:12 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:lot can change still 4 days to go and it does look like its organizing.


Very true.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#56 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:14 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Landfall of whatever forms is still highly questionable
IMO.


I have always a stronger storm will likely go more poleward. Would that be the case if this 95l becomes a tropical depression if that is even in the cards?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#57 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:37 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Landfall of whatever forms is still highly questionable
IMO.


I have always a stronger storm will likely go more poleward. Would that be the case if this 95l becomes a tropical depression if that is even in the cards?


It’s a good rule of thumb but not 100%. It always depends on the steering currents. In this case, you’d think the general propagation west with a spin up would lead to a TX/Mex landfall. If it was later in the season, you might look for a stall and drift NE ahead of a front if one was coming down. I think it’s even money you get a Texas hit, maybe slightly less that it hits Mexico and less still that it hits sw la.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#58 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:44 pm

Code red! ECMWF forecasts the shear to decrease considerably over the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday, making much more development of #al95 possible. Waiting for the new ECMWF and its ensembles to gauge exactly what we may looking at. #TropicalUpdate #Tropics

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1039212785530556416


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#59 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:07 pm

Nice. He sees what I’m looking at but probably studied a buttload more of the pattern evolution than I have. I was thinking late Wednesday more by eyeballing the models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#60 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:26 pm

The way the convection has maintained itself extremely well, combined with some obvious broad midlevel vorticity already, makes me honestly expect that we get at least a TD out of this.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


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