ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#61 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:41 pm

Wish we had the buoy working in the NW Caribbean. Just to see if we have any pressure falls yet. On a side note seems like a few more buoys in the southern gulf and north of the greater Antilles, might save a few trips for the recon missions
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#62 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:44 pm

95L is firing off some impressive convection right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#63 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:47 pm

NAM isn’t interested. It shows some turning but just brings a surge into the TX coast Thursday. It was a lot more bullish on the non classified low that moved into the NW Gulf early last week and changed the weather pattern in SETX. We will see what the other models think, but I’m guessing the NAM is underdoing development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#64 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:22 pm

Steve wrote:NAM isn’t interested. It shows some turning but just brings a surge into the TX coast Thursday. It was a lot more bullish on the non classified low that moved into the NW Gulf early last week and changed the weather pattern in SETX. We will see what the other models think, but I’m guessing the NAM is underdoing development.



I'm not a model hugging guy, but I'm looking at the Euro for this one. GFS wasn't interested either on the 18Z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#65 Postby wkwally » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:54 pm

I know the models seem to push 95L farther south but I am a little on edge here in Houston with both 95L and Issiac. Still recovering from Harvey
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#66 Postby txag2005 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:05 pm

wkwally wrote:I know the models seem to push 95L farther south but I am a little on edge here in Houston with both 95L and Issiac. Still recovering from Harvey


I hear ya. I'm here in North Harris County and there are plenty of people still dealing with Harvey damage. Both this storm and Issac have me a little nervous, especially with Harvey in the back of my mind.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#67 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:07 pm

wkwally wrote:I know the models seem to push 95L farther south but I am a little on edge here in Houston with both 95L and Issiac. Still recovering from Harvey


My paid guys put Houston at less than 1% chance of Tropical Storm winds and 2% chance of 30 mph winds. The issue is rain. Their forecast pretty much mirrors the Euro in track, a little south of Corpus Christi. They are human like the rest of us though, so their word isn't gospel.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#68 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:22 pm

After 66 hrs travels nw and makes landfall between corpus and rockport
Image

dumping a copious amounts of rainfall in 6 days in some places along the coast
Image

depression - 100%
strong TS/Cat 1 - 60%

S Texas Coast and Gulf Coast needs to be ready.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#69 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:26 pm

Image

holy poop its flipping me off
Last edited by wxGuy on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#70 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:27 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#71 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:30 pm

Image
that deep current is hot too
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#72 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:31 pm

see the loop eddy in the gulf chillin? its also waiting along with alot less shear forecasted
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#73 Postby wxGuy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:39 pm

anyone in cozumel? yucatan?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#74 Postby Cypresso » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:26 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#75 Postby Cypresso » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:27 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#76 Postby Cypresso » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:27 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#77 Postby wkwally » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:30 am

SoupBone wrote:
wkwally wrote:I know the models seem to push 95L farther south but I am a little on edge here in Houston with both 95L and Issiac. Still recovering from Harvey


My paid guys put Houston at less than 1% chance of Tropical Storm winds and 2% chance of 30 mph winds. The issue is rain. Their forecast pretty much mirrors the Euro in track, a little south of Corpus Christi. They are human like the rest of us though, so their word isn't gospel.

I am more concerned about the rain from this and if Issiac works it's way here as we have already been dealing with flood advisories here this week
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#78 Postby Cypresso » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:36 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#79 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:41 am

wkwally wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
wkwally wrote:I know the models seem to push 95L farther south but I am a little on edge here in Houston with both 95L and Issiac. Still recovering from Harvey


My paid guys put Houston at less than 1% chance of Tropical Storm winds and 2% chance of 30 mph winds. The issue is rain. Their forecast pretty much mirrors the Euro in track, a little south of Corpus Christi. They are human like the rest of us though, so their word isn't gospel.

I am more concerned about the rain from this and if Issiac works it's way here as we have already been dealing with flood advisories here this week


One of the models was showing 16" of rain NW of Corpus Christi. Someone is likely going to get a lot of rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#80 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:45 am

A lot of people seem to think this will be a lopsided system so if it makes landfall in STX that would bring SETX a lot of rain and not much to STX.
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